Season 2025 Prediction Thread

[Pazza]

It’s pretty clear that POs are a club’s way of saying we care. We care enough to want you at our club for your entire career. They are good for the players because they provide injury security. Career ending shit will mean they player gets a big payout from the insurance company. Dylan said this himself when he joked about his 20 year contract. They are good for us, because a player feels like he has a long term contract and it’s harder to break away.

I know you keep repeating this 9 year thing, but a lawyer or accountant getting a public service gig on OK money might provide you with job security, but there is better money to be earned with the top tier firms. Dylan’s deal with us is at OK money, but at 24 he could potentially earn 30 or 40% more elsewhere. Sorry, our deal might sound like an Alan Bond deal but its no 10 year Toumololo contract. False equivalence.

Dylan is one lucky man

 

[hindy111]

@Twizzle mate can we clean this shit up. It's the 2025 prediction thread.
Thanks

 

[Gronk]

@Twizzle mate can we clean this shit up. It's the 2025 prediction thread.
Thanks

You should scroll up and see who started the convo in the thread and arrange meet them at the aquarium.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

No doubt we have had a massive offer on the table since last year, way beyond his option price.

Exactly. I doubt we expect any player to activate his PO. It is intended as a fallback option for the player, on a value that doesn't hurt the club.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The PO really allows the player to explore the market, you'd be silly not to.

Being off contract is what allows them to explore the market. The PO is there if they can't get anything better.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

No different to being off contract for 2026.

ffs

 

[Poupou Escobar]

It is different, that's why it's called a player option.

That difference just means he can stay even if nobody wants him at that price, including us.

From the perspective of testing the market, the PO is irrelevant. All that matters is being off contract from the first of November.

Dylan has had his Alan bond moment, is he dumb enough to walk away from it???

To be an Alan Bond moment, wouldn't the PO need to be for a far higher value than he is worth? If he's going to market that means it's lower.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The option gives the player the ability to explore the market with the knowledge he still has an option to stay at the club. Without the option, going to the market means the club might spend that money else where.

If he's going to market it means he didn't accept our offer of an upgrade. If he didn't want an upgrade why would he want to take the PO for less?

it's not the same for all parties

This is true. But you're overstating the attractiveness of the option over other offers. If it was that great he wouldn't be going to market. It's mid-January. He has been free to negotiate with rivals for two and a half months already. His manager knows how much he can get, and it would have to be more than the value of the PO. But all those offers won't be on the table until round ten. The clubs will want an answer, just as we did when we offered the upgrade.

Squeezing the eels for a 9 season contract is definitely an Alan bond moment, the Roosters aren't going to offer him a 6 year deal

So if the PO is that good do you reckon he will knock everyone else back?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

If you wish to put up some sort of an adult position, then feel free.

That's what they resort to when they realise they haven't given anything much thought. Then it's f**keN bUsH dEfEnCe BaLd JiZz GlUg GlUg GlUg!!!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The club still has to have the money aside for these POs until they're activated.

No different from offering an extension, or a contract to a new player. Clubs still need to put a deadline on their offers. In this case it's predetermined that the deadline is round ten. If he's not going to stay do you really think he won't have signed elsewhere by then?

Maybe the club doesn't want to keep these players.

Agreed, and this is the only case where the PO hurts the club. Or where the club does want to keep the player but he's worth less than the value of the option (like if Drown did his ACL).

POs good bad or ugly are not the same thing as just being off contract. There's no incentive for a player to negotiate prior to hitting the market and the club has to wait until a option is activated or rejected. That's why it's called a player option.

The club doesn't have to wait at all. It can offer an upgrade on the option value with a much shorter deadline. Which is what rival clubs are probably doing right now. In this way it's no different to if he didn't have the PO. He would be on the market and free to choose between our new offer and those of rival clubs. We can offer whatever we want. We don't have to wait until round ten to see if he will stay. If he knocks back our upgrade we know he won't take the option unless there's a disaster. In which case that's the risk we accepted when we offered the option in the first place.

He signed a contract for 3 years with 2 x 3 year POs..... how is that not his Alan bond moment????

Because it is likely worth less than he could get elsewhere. Alan Bond is famous for paying overs, not selling insurance.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Because he can earn more playing for other clubs.

FFS!!!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

We don't know if he has ratcheting clauses, he could. A potential nine year contract on a high salary is about as good as it gets in the nrl. If he gets a better deal than that, I'll be stunned

So you expect him to knock back rival offers and take the option? Would that be a good or bad outcome?

 

[Happy MEel]

That difference just means he can stay even if nobody wants him at that price, including us.

From the perspective of testing the market, the PO is irrelevant. All that matters is being off contract from the first of November.

To be an Alan Bond moment, wouldn't the PO need to be for a far higher value than he is worth? If he's going to market that means it's lower.

Isn’t he going to market now to test his value? I actually think he’s well overpaid. At $700k I could cop him, but I think he’s on far more than that.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Isn’t he going to market now to test his value?

The question is why he's waited this long. In reality he's been on the market since the start of November. Someone mentioned this email might've been sent weeks/months ago but only making the news now. It's plausible.

Anyway I'm sure he already knows his value and it's more than the PO. I'm wondering if our upgrade is still on the table.

I actually think he’s well overpaid. At $700k I could cop him, but I think he’s on far more than that.

I think the $900k doing the rounds is realistic and probably the bottom end of what he's projected to be worth in the coming years. He is an elite player. Not an elite halfback, but I don't think any good club will be looking to him as their general and kicker. He is very similar to Jack Wighton, and don't forget he dragged Canberra to a grand final and also won a Dally M. The salary cap keeps going up and Drown is only 25 this year. He certainly might be worth $1.2M to the right club. I reckon the likes of Cleary could be on $1.5M in 2025, though maybe a bunch of it is going to a family member employed by the club. If we don't have advantages like this, we need to pay it all under the cap.

 

[TheCrowe]

There is no escape from the PO virus.