ROUND 5
ROOSTERS v BULLDOGS - Allianz Stadium Fri - 4/4/14
Good Betting Game
For me the roosters have been badly priced in the early rounds, and again here. They are without there best go-forward man in hargreaves, although SBW back, he plays wider and a lack of match fitness does him no favours. But hargreaves is their enforcer, and he will be missed sorely IMO against a big forward pack. The roosters have not been completing their sets, along with giving away a lot of penalties, which has contributed to their form. The bulldogs are going nicely, although a couple of their recent wins were flattered somewhat, but they are completing a lot of sets, and when they have possession they are finishing off, they only have to control the ruck here to repeat this, and with hargreaves out i think it is very possible, their pack and halves are underrated and they go into this with no injury concerns and better than average form. The 7.5 start looks like a nice play here for me, although my rated prices suggest the bulldogs should be winning this, the concern is the bounce back factor with the roosters.
My rated prices/On offer
Roosters - $2.60 (1.45)
Bulldogs - $1.65 (2.90)
The line is +/- 7.5 @ $1.90
TIP - The Bulldogs
BET - 100 x units - Bulldogs +7.5 @ 1.90.
BRONCOS v EELS - Suncorp Stadium - Fri 4/4/14
Good Betting Game
This game for me is clear cut, the broncos are flying and they don't look like stopping just yet. They have no injuries, their forwards are bashing all opposition, and their backs are scoring at will. I don't see anything changing here, on top of that is the Heritage men of league round, which sees all the old first grade broncos players in hand to watch, and they will not be letting them down, which is nearly 100% of the case at country and interstate venues for home teams. The eels are on the Improve, and they may stick with them for 60 minutes or so, but the broncos will be way too strong through the middle of the ruck.
Broncos - $1.10 (1.38)
Eels - $5.50 (3.30)
The line is -/+ 8.5 @ 1.92
TIP - BRONCOS
BET - BRONCOS Straight @1.38 x 100 units & at the line of -8.5 x 100 units.
SHARKS v WARRIORS - Remondis Stadium - Sat 5/4/14 - 3pm
Good Betting Game
My prices have the warriors as clear winners, their forwards should be rolling over the top of a depleted sharks pack, and their backs the same, if the sharks can't compete in the first 20, it could be a long day for them, in saying this both sides are capable of tossing up a great or poor performance without warning. The sharks have too many out surely to be troubling this warriors side who get feleti mateo back, and when he is on, he can destroy teams. The only hope for the sharks is the home ground factor, and the possibility of the warriors coming up with complete rubbish. Until they get lewis, gallen, ryan, tupou, robson etc back they will battle. All things being equal the warriors shouldn't have a problem, somewhere between 8 and 14 points.
Sharks - $2.90 (2.60)
Warriors - $1.35 (1.60)
The line is a flat 4.
TIP - Warriors
BET - Warriors straight out @ $1.60 x 100 units.
PANTHERS v RAIDERS - Sportingbet Stadium - Sat 5/4/14 - 5.30pm
Good Betting Game
Another clear cut game for me here, looking mostly at the bounce back rating at home. On top of this the panthers are very improved, with strong forwards, and peter wallace to come back from injury who has been out since round 1. Wallace is the most underrated player in the comp IMO. He was best on ground in round 1 for mine, with the way he ran the knights forwards into the ground, they will be flourishing with him back, Cleary will be wanting them to be making up for last weeks performance in a big way, and didn't they cop a decent spray for it. The raiders are improving also, but this won't be enough to overcome a side at home looking to bounce back, i would be surprised if the raiders won this. They still haven't got the 7 right yet, and i believe they will be without fensom again, this is enough for them not to be figuring here. Im tipping the panthers halves to be running riot here.
Panthers - $1.25 (1.48)
Raiders - $3.50 (2.70)
The line is a flat 6 @ 1.92
TIP - Panthers
BET - Panthers straight 100 x units @ 1.48 & panthers at the line of-6 - 100 x units @1.92
ST GEORGE v SOUTHS - SCG - Sat 5/4/14 - 7.30pm
Hazardous betting Game
This is a worry this game from a punting view, the dragons are on top for me due to form only, but not confident at all. they have been good without impressing too much, for me they lack from rowers and a 7, Dugan will bring some confidence back in his return, but the unknown is how fit is he? Souths on the other hand have been nothing short of deplorable, their attack is something you see from the local "A" grade side, their defence not as bad as it looks but still needs work. If they are to win sam burgess needs to concentrate on what he does best, reynolds and sutton need to start putting inglis into holes. Being the Men of league round, both sides have motivation to put in big performances in front of former all time greats. You would think maguire has a plan to get them up for this game as they are due, and that is the scary part for the dragons.
Dragons - $1.80 (2.20)
Souths - $2.20 (1.70)
Tip - Dragons
Bet - No bet here for me.
STORM v TITANS - AAMI Park - Sun 6/4/14 - 2.00pm
Hazardous betting game
Usually after a loss and coming home i would be unloading on the storm, however the titans have a great record away from home and against this mob. This coupled with the jordan mcclean turmoil, leaves the match to pass from a betting perspective. The storm got rolled by the dogs last week without skipper smith, he is back , and they should be winning, but recent events may mean do not have their heads on. The titans are going ok without starring, their forwards can match the storms but their attack at the moment resembles the u9's down the road, their defence has been winning them games, but that might not be good enough here.
Storm - $1.50 (1.25)
Titans - $3.30 (4.10)
The line is -+10.5 @ 1.90
TIP - STORM
BET - No bet here for me.
WESTS TIGERS v MANLY - Leichardt Oval - Sun 6/4/14 - 3 pm
Good Betting Game
I don't like investing against teams that are playing at home, let alone a suburban home ground, which is a bit of a fortress for the tigers. They got rolled last week by the warriors, and the bounce back factor applies here for them, but their opposition in Manly are going like they are bombproof, they thrive on hard games, can play injured, can play in front, come from behind, and they have the 2 best halves in the comp by a mile. Their defence is brick wall like, and i don't know where the tigers points are going to come from, i think it will be a fairly close game but i can't see anything but a manly victory with the way they are going. I still think there is improvement there also. For the tigers to salute here they have to play the perfect game and i don't know they have that in them at this time of year.
MANLY - $1.30 (1.50)
TIGERS - $3.30 (2.65)
The line is -+5.5 @1.92
TIP - MANLY
BET - Manly straight @1.50 x 100 units, manly at the line of -5.5 @1.92 x 100 units.
COWBOYS v KNIGHTS - Smiles Stadium - Mon 7/4/14 - 7pm
Hazardous Betting Game
Well we know the cowboys are due to win, back at home, a loss last week away - an after match dressing down from JT in front of the public, but to be taking $1.50 on their form is unheard off. They have been disgraceful to say the least, their defence is seriously in the bottom 4 in the comp overall, and green was never the right man to put in control here. They may win this game, but i don't like their chances at all this season, simply on the signing of paul green as head coach. As for the knights, well you just don't know where their heads are at given the past fortnight, and last week at home was super predictable given the home ground and the rise for alex day, but since then there has been different news and a long travel to unfamiliar environment. They could come with a do it for alex motivation and put 20 on the cowboys, but they also may be sapped from the week. I will tip the cowboys only because they cannot possibly play any worse than what they have, but still not confident what so ever. The knights are probably value here.
Cowboys - $1.92 (1.50)
Knights - $1.92 (2.65)
TIP - COWBOYS
BET - No bet here for me.
Good luck to all - feel free to rip into me if need be.
