some useless information on footy tipping..

[Gooba]

ok ok ok i was bored so i worked this out!

There are 128 different ways to tip each week..

So theoretically there is 1 chance out of 128 of getting 7 out of 7..

26 rounds in a year there for there is 6.12x10 to the power of 52 different ways to tip for the whole year.

in other words its exactly
1 chance out of 61,2998216400,0000000000,0000000000,0000000000,0000000000
of getting 100% in a footy tipping comp!
therefore that same chance of getting 0%
therefore u would need to enter that many footy tipping comps to garentee first place!
or u could just tip good

 

[ByRd]

What The?

 

[gregstar]

you're right gooba!















it was useless.

 

[aids]

doing stats for homework are we?

 

[nqboy]

ok ok ok i was bored so i worked this out!

There are 128 different ways to tip each week..

So theoretically there is 1 chance out of 128 of getting 7 out of 7..

26 rounds in a year there for there is 6.12x10 to the power of 52 different ways to tip for the whole year.

in other words its exactly
1 chance out of 61,2998216400,0000000000,0000000000,0000000000,0000000000
of getting 100% in a footy tipping comp!
therefore that same chance of getting 0%
therefore u would need to enter that many footy tipping comps to garentee first place!
or u could just tip good

Or, equally, you could come last on each occasion.

 

[RABK]

you're right gooba!















it was useless.

:LOL:



Never tire of you Greg.

 

[Nuke]

Well, I'm already buggered for 2006 then ... I only got 5 in Round 1!

 

[Robster]

Well, I'm already buggered for 2006 then ... I only got 5 in Round 1!

don't be such a drama queen, you know thats a good score. :roll:

 

[hrundi99]

ok ok ok i was bored so i worked this out!

There are 128 different ways to tip each week..

So theoretically there is 1 chance out of 128 of getting 7 out of 7..

26 rounds in a year there for there is 6.12x10 to the power of 52 different ways to tip for the whole year.

Well that's not true. What about draws?

You're only considering win or loss.

We can still have draws, so the real odds for a week are 1 in 2187.

That's pure mathematics as well of course, not taking into account the varying likelihoods of a better team beating a lesser team, etc.

 

[kia ora storm]

My God...mate you need a job or a hobby !!!

 

[Azkatro]

I feel the need to add to this. If you add margins into the equation (say 1-12 & 13+), it increases the improbability even further. For each game you have five options - Home by 13+, home by 1-12, draw, away by 1-12, away by 13+.

Now it's wrong to just say we have 7 games a week because during Origin there are a couple of 6-game weeks, so we have to determine the total number of normal round games in the season (most tipping comps I've seen don't include finals games). Each team has 24 fixtures and there are 15 teams, totalling 360 regular season matches. Now this is a question of permutations, so you can't just multiply 5 by 360 to get the total number of possibilities - it's exponential. So to work out how many different things you can do in the year you have to calculate 5^360.

This gives a total of approximately 4,257,959,840,008,150,719,910,053,716,247,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 possible different ways you can tip a full season.

 

[RufusRex]

You forget the two rounds before SOO 1 and SOO 3 where 3 teams get byes and not 1 ... Thats two less games played in the season than you are accounting for.

 

[innsaneink]

This week I will select three games and go the opposite way I would normally tip...so,

Dogs Wests
Eels Warriors
Sharks Broncos
Cowboys Eagles
Roosters Storm
Dragons Panthers
Raiders Knights

Games 2, 3 & 6 I will use for my experiment, I wouldve tipped Eels Broncos and dragons butwilll go the other way so....


Dogs Wests
Eels Warriors
Sharks Broncos
Cowboys Eagles
Roosters Storm
Dragons Panthers
Raiders Knights

cant be any worse than my usual tips.

 

[The Preacher]

I'll just stick to watching "Numbers" on Monday nights.
The odds you people are showing me is like the odds the donkey's I back on Saturday's should be.

 

[peter_raiders]

Each team has 24 fixtures and there are 15 teams, totalling 360 regular season matches. Now this is a question of permutations, so you can't just multiply 5 by 360 to get the total number of possibilities - it's exponential. So to work out how many different things you can do in the year you have to calculate 5^360.

Theres a lot less than 360 games a year. Even if there was 7 games a week (through origin as well), there would only be 182 games played. So i'm guessing theres about half of what you said and that there is 180 games a year.

You calculated every game twice. By saying that each team plays 24 matches you are correct. But by saying 24 fixtures times by 15 teams you are wrong. You do 24 times by 7.5 because there is 2 teams in every match, therefore it should only be calculated as one match (i.e team A vs team B, rather than team A vs team B AND team B vs team A)

Enough maths for me, i left school for a reason.

 

[Breadman]

You username suits you well Gooba

 

[Azkatro]

Theres a lot less than 360 games a year. Even if there was 7 games a week (through origin as well), there would only be 182 games played. So i'm guessing theres about half of what you said and that there is 180 games a year.

You calculated every game twice. By saying that each team plays 24 matches you are correct. But by saying 24 fixtures times by 15 teams you are wrong. You do 24 times by 7.5 because there is 2 teams in every match, therefore it should only be calculated as one match (i.e team A vs team B, rather than team A vs team B AND team B vs team A)

Enough maths for me, i left school for a reason.

Quality correction!

 

[Gooba]

correction 173 games a year..
3 outcomes considering a draw..
equals
11,9726214100,0000000000,0000000000,00000000000,0000000000. different ways or for easier readin 1.1972x10to power of 52
Better?

 

[Nuke]

don't be such a drama queen, you know thats a good score. :roll:

Yeah I know it's a good score ... I'm certainly not complaining!

I was kinda hoping to be that 1 in 758million-gazillion-trillion-brazillian that Gooba and Azkatro have worked it out to be. Oh well, there's always 2007!

Actually, I look forward to seeing what the odds are in 2007, given there will be an extra team thrown into the mix.