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Spring 2023

Lemon Squash

First Grade
Messages
8,211
l-intro-1618508271.jpg

Declan Bates “I may not be a smart man but I know how to pinch a group 1”
 

Sphagnum

Coach
Messages
13,067
I’m having the worst spring carnival of my life but I’m definitely backing Gold Trip tomorrow. Arguably in better order than last year and possesses a wfa turn of foot at the end of two miles which none of the others have. Soulcombe and without a fight have probably proven themselves at wfa but can they sprint like that at the end of 2 miles? Doubt it.

the weight and the myth about him needing it wet shouldn’t be enough to stop him.

in any other era he would be the even money favourite with his lead up form.
 

Lemon Squash

First Grade
Messages
8,211
I’m having the worst spring carnival of my life but I’m definitely backing Gold Trip tomorrow. Arguably in better order than last year and possesses a wfa turn of foot at the end of two miles which none of the others have. Soulcombe and without a fight have probably proven themselves at wfa but can they sprint like that at the end of 2 miles? Doubt it.

the weight and the myth about him needing it wet shouldn’t be enough to stop him.

in any other era he would be the even money favourite with his lead up form.

Agree, all his lead up runs have been outstanding and I think he is going better than he was 12 months ago... the 58.5 is a worry over this distance but its only one extra keg than he carried last year.

I haven't had a chance to really dig deep into the form this year but will get stuck into it tonight. Of the little I have done I find it interesting that most of Vauban's best form seems to be as a hurdler? I know that's quite common for the Europeans to do that but I can't get get hurdler = dour slug out of my head... Massive respect for Willie Mullins though he's no mug.

At this stage I'll probably be backing Soulcombe at the value, the dog of a thing owes me... just praying it decides to jump with them and Mr Waller has been feeding it Frosty Milkshakes for brekky all week.
 

to_ddeath

Coach
Messages
11,905
Agree, all his lead up runs have been outstanding and I think he is going better than he was 12 months ago... the 58.5 is a worry over this distance but its only one extra keg than he carried last year.

I haven't had a chance to really dig deep into the form this year but will get stuck into it tonight. Of the little I have done I find it interesting that most of Vauban's best form seems to be as a hurdler? I know that's quite common for the Europeans to do that but I can't get get hurdler = dour slug out of my head... Massive respect for Willie Mullins though he's no mug.

At this stage I'll probably be backing Soulcombe at the value, the dog of a thing owes me... just praying it decides to jump with them and Mr Waller has been feeding it Frosty Milkshakes for brekky all week.
The jumps stuff was my initial knock on Vauban (even drifting now it’s still a crap price) but apparently hurdle form is very strong over there, saw Andrew Hawkins talking about this on the Betfair preview last night & he thought their best jumps horse Constitution Hill would walk in this race. So Mullins may not be so dumb, though apparently Vauban was going off like a pork chop prior to his track gallop during the week so that’s a possible negative on Tuesday in front of 10s of thousands…
Having said that, I took that Swiftbet promo on Gold Trip/Ashrun last week & would even back GT again at the current price. That Turnbull win was a career turning point & every run since has been tops.
Soulcombe with blinkers off & Magic man on is a definite plus so I’ve backed it too.
Without A Fight might wait & see what the tote odds are on the day, could be better price than it is now…
 

Lemon Squash

First Grade
Messages
8,211
It's a funny year, there are three horses in single digits which appear to be the main hopes and all have outstanding claims. You can make an argument for maybe 2-3 others but I've just got a gut feeling something might come from the clouds to give it a shake.

Something at huge odds always runs well...its just about finding the right horse
 

Sphagnum

Coach
Messages
13,067
It's a funny year, there are three horses in single digits which appear to be the main hopes and all have outstanding claims. You can make an argument for maybe 2-3 others but I've just got a gut feeling something might come from the clouds to give it a shake.

Something at huge odds always runs well...its just about finding the right horse
Thinking ashrun or vow and declare might provide some value. Vow and declare has been great this prep. Dunno where he gets to from the draw and don’t really think he can win but he can certainly finish in the money somewhere. Ashrun was good at Geelong in a questionable form race and will enjoy the step up in trip

the jap horse wasn’t bad in the CC either after riding the speed and running into trouble early in the straight. Will improve a lot off that run for sure.
 

Lemon Squash

First Grade
Messages
8,211
Thinking ashrun or vow and declare might provide some value. Vow and declare has been great this prep. Dunno where he gets to from the draw and don’t really think he can win but he can certainly finish in the money somewhere. Ashrun was good at Geelong in a questionable form race and will enjoy the step up in trip

the jap horse wasn’t bad in the CC either after riding the speed and running into trouble early in the straight. Will improve a lot off that run for sure.

Yeh I was keen on the Jap horse just wish it had of drawn a little better, not sure it will have the tactical speed to get itself into the race… it will love the 3200 at Flemington though.

I thought Alenquer had been going sneaky good this prep… sounds like it might get scratched though, even if it gets passed fit I couldn’t back it now.
 

Lemon Squash

First Grade
Messages
8,211
Potting Vauban... every Tom, Dick and Harry is tipping it so I'm just going against the crowd.

He looks an impressive animal but his last couple of wins (as outstanding as they were) look like they have been sit and sprint jobs, I think the speed is going to be on today on a rock hard truck its going to be a real staying test.

Also I think Ryan Moore is an absolute flog so would like the see the little merkin get crucified.
 
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Sphagnum

Coach
Messages
13,067
The turnover on the cup will be the worst in a long time. The VRC will respond by inviting even more European hurdlers and giving them no weight.

watched some replays last night and some of the euro form is a joke.

gold trip just wins. Keep drifting you good thing.
 
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4,293
Sticking on Without A Fight as the main play with savers on Gold Trip & Breakup. Bit worried this French mare Lastotchka might end up Willowing us all..
 

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