NSW are good things for Origin 2, and expect them to win pretty comfortably.
Price out, Johns in, very significant. I think the various team changes will actually have a major impact on how the game will unfold. The loss of Price is huge for Qld, who now go into a Sydney Origin game with out him and Webcke (rep retired), arguably two of the best work rate front rowers of recent times. On the back of this Qld will now rely on a makeshift front row with Thorn and Carlaw who are both very short on match fitness, for one reason or anther having played very little match time through the last 4 weeks. At this level, with the speed and intensity of Origin and being forwards expected to be in the thick of things this has to be a huge problem for Qld, and a significant advantage for the back row and 3/4 mobility that NSW can call on. The back ends of each half could prove very telling. I would have thought a high work rate player like Nutley would have been a much better option for Qld (but I think he will get his chance in game 3).
Johns is a big plus. The NSW attack style will be much better suited to a natural organising half. Any additional class he stamps on the game a bonus. I still think NSW would be better balanced with 3 front rowers, as with game 1 only two leaves little room for error if they and others don't aim up at the advantage line game. This imo is the critical issues of the game. If Bailey and Ryles play well and do there respective jobs well then NSW will have the platform off which to build a good win. NSW certainly have a better kicking game than game 1 with Johns and Anasta, and now have more options, Anasta's length will also help. Qld were not moved around through the first 40 mins in game 1 due to NSW's poor go forward and ineffective kicking game, think this will be very different (and bloody important). An improved kicking game via long kicks toward corners that remain in play will only assist move the Qld forwards around and tire / drain them.
For mine NSW just have all the aces. Game 1 and Qld being Qld in Origin proved it doesn't always unfold that way, but I think NSW should be learning plenty from that, have a better kicking game (than game 1) and have much to prove. They turned a 19 zip score line around to nearly win game 1 which imo only supports what they have and highlight where Qld may well be short. If they manage the Qld go forward game effectively through the first 25 mins then they will be able to build from there. A clever kicking game, good field position and smart ball movement will continue to move Qld around, limit their effectiveness, tire them, expose some fitness shortfalls and eventually open them up. Without Price and a Webcke Qld have some real problems up front. More of the same and NSW should be running up points.
NSW to win, comfortably, by 16 +
Pick the score I'd be playing around NSW to be scoring 26 to 40 points, Qld 10 to 18.
