Pomoz
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If there is one thing that always bugs me it is when people fire off comments without any sort of facts or analysis. It is really about people trying to support some sort of agenda or bias and getting emotional. Here is an example from the Sporting News NRL Website. Journalist Andy Silver has posted a video clip and commentary piece headed "Knights dudded twice" in which he highlights two poor decisions that went against the Knights and laments the try scored by Matt Moylan after a poor decision. In which universe does a 42-6 flogging constitute being dudded by referees? An emotional piece that stands up to no rational analysis.
We all have our own agendas of course, myself included. But there are plenty of places we can get stats on the NRL to help form a more reasoned opinion. When you look at them, they often shock you with what they tell you. Here are some I found today when I was looking at the NRL stats leaderboard.
The Case For The Defence
When commenting on the Panther's game, Mark Gassier said "there is nothing wrong with Bryce Cartwright's tackling, it is his decision making". Well, Gassier was a great player and should know what he is talking about. I have already posted about his improvement elsewhere, but a quick look at the top 20 missed tackles list shows a few surprises. Bryce is 10th with 62 missed tackles (10.8%). Dylan Napa is 9th with 63 missed tackles (9.5%). What? Napa the Roosters hard man prop and tackling monster? 63 missed tackles and he has played one game less. Greg Bird has missed 60 tackles(13.4%), Darcy Lussick 59 (12.6%), Chris Macqueen 57 (9.5%), Josh Jackson 56(8.3%). SOO players, surely not? Why aren't these players called poor defenders? Lelani Latu has missed 57 tackles (12.4%). 57 and he has played 2 games less than Cartwright. Incidentally James Maloney is number 1 with a whopping 86 tackles with a missed percentage of 29%.
What about ineffective tackles? Number 2 is Michael Ennis with 42 and then there is Corey Parker with 40 and Wade "underrated and can't dress properly" Graham with 31 and Cameron Smith, yes, the Cameron Smith with 30. Bryce has 34 ineffective tackles, so he does need to improve.
Now lets look at One on One tackles. Oh dear, this should be ugly right? Number one is Josh Jackson with 54. Eh? But he has missed 56, although his missed tackle percentage is 8.3% against Cartwright's 10.8%. Mind you, Cartwright's percentage in the second half of the season is 8% too. Our very own Peter Wallace features in this list (onya Pete) with 43 tackles and is number 7. At number 15 right next to Mitch Aubusson and above Simon Mannering is Bryce Cartwright with 40.
All this analysis has confirmed what my eyes have been telling me. Bryce has improved as the season has gone on. He should try and get better in defence, but is actually doing better than we think. He has made the 29th most tackles in the NRL, is good at one on one tackling (who would have thought?), but needs to improve to be considered an elite player. Mind you, there are elite players sitting alongside him in those lists so he is in good company.
But the stats showed more. Peter Wallace is transformed at hooker and his defence is key feature of his game (missed tackle 6.4%). Latu's defence is a worry. He isn't playing out of position so he can't use that excuse. He needs to concentrate on making better first contact and not rushing in for the big hit (no data, just from what I have seen. JFH does the same). However he has only played 22 games and is still adjusting to the physicality of first grade. He is not alone though. Both RCG and JFH have missed tackle percentages of 11% plus (worse than Cartwright). We don't need stats to know Penrith's defence is a concern at times, but they do reveal where our problems lie. Old stagers Latimore (5.5%), Wallace (6.4%), Merrin (6.9%) and McKendry (3.5%) show the way.
A Running Fullback or Not?
It has been said that Moylan can't defend and his kick returns are not good. It has been pointed out that his favourite move is to give it to Mansour or DWZ. What do the stats show? The number 1 kick returner is Will Hopoate with 124. Matt Moylan sits at 13th with 64. Of the fullbacks he rates 11th. He does have two wingers in Kyle Feldt and Jason Nightingale above him making more kick returns. At number 19 on the list is our very own DWZ. Obviously only an idiot would kick to Josh Mansour so DWZ fields more kicks and gets more hand offs from Moylan.
Surprisingly, diminutive, Hobbit like Lachlan Coote is third on the list with 99 kick returns. It's not about size then. Power? Err have you seen Lachlan Coote? He couldn't benchpress what Josh Mansour lifts doing bicep curls. Not power. Speed? Moylan and Coote in a foot race? Positioning? I have no stats to show how often the ball hits the floor from kicks but when it comes to kick defused, Moylan is 10th. Coote is third. Bombs defused Coote is 5th, Moylan 8th. This is confused by the fact Coote is 4th in kicks not defused meaning he must drop them. Moylan isn't even in the top 20. So Coote gets to the ball more often, but drops it more. Lachlan Coote reads the game well. Something is obviously missing in Moylan's game that sees him so far down the kick return list.
Kick return metres is also revealing. Gordon 9.8m per run, Hopoate 8.7m, Munster 10m, Boyd 10.2m, Tedesco 8.7m, Dugan 9.6m, Coote 6.95m. Moylan is making a very low 6.1m a run even less than Coote who weighs less than Josh Mansour's beard. DWZ is making 10.85m and is clearly a good kick returner up there with some of the best in the NRL. Incidentally, Greg Inglis makes 11.98m per run so DWZ is delivering an impressive meterage that he never really gets praise for. Probably because Mansour delivers such massive metres taking hit ups. Anyway you look at it, Moylan is not a running fullback and if that was your number one requirement, DWZ should get the job.
In defence Moylan is actually equal second (with Coote, Hopoate and Dugan) with 9 for the most try saving tackles. Barba is first with 14. Peter Wallace gets a mention for being 17th on the list with 4. This surprised me as I hadn't noticed Moylan making those sort of tackles, but clearly he does. His missed tackle percentage is 18.8% compared to Coote 28%, Boyd 23%, Dugan 19.8%, Hopoate 27%, Barba 29.8%, Munster 20.3%, Gordon 31.4%, Tedesco 37%.
This blew me away. Moylan is the most effective tackler of all the fullbacks (Inglis is not fullback anymore and if he was, he would be the best in defence). He never gets a single mention for his defence. Quite the opposite. Meanwhile he is quietly accumulating try saving tackles and blowing the likes of Tedesco off the park when it comes to defence. His creativity is not in question, he is just an odd sort of a fullback. A languid runner like somebody half heartedly running for the bus but knowing they will never make it. With his Cliffy Lyons' passes, Daren Lockyer body and Ronan Keating looks, it seems strange to think of him as an effective tackler. Not "cement" Gillespie but perhaps "Gyrprock" Moylan.
Elijah Taylor and Trent Merrin
There have been plenty who think we should have kept Taylor and not signed Merrin. Some say say we should keep both (not enough cash, move on nothing to see here). The stats show this. Taylor averages 44 tackles, missed tackles 2.7, runs 55m, 0.3 offloads, 0.1 tackle busts per game. Merrin averages 34.5 tackles, missed tackles 2.1, runs 154.7m, 2.3 offloads, 1.8 tackle busts per game. Simple really. Tackling excellence versus better attacking contribution. You decide. I'm with Sally's bloke.
We all have our own agendas of course, myself included. But there are plenty of places we can get stats on the NRL to help form a more reasoned opinion. When you look at them, they often shock you with what they tell you. Here are some I found today when I was looking at the NRL stats leaderboard.
The Case For The Defence
When commenting on the Panther's game, Mark Gassier said "there is nothing wrong with Bryce Cartwright's tackling, it is his decision making". Well, Gassier was a great player and should know what he is talking about. I have already posted about his improvement elsewhere, but a quick look at the top 20 missed tackles list shows a few surprises. Bryce is 10th with 62 missed tackles (10.8%). Dylan Napa is 9th with 63 missed tackles (9.5%). What? Napa the Roosters hard man prop and tackling monster? 63 missed tackles and he has played one game less. Greg Bird has missed 60 tackles(13.4%), Darcy Lussick 59 (12.6%), Chris Macqueen 57 (9.5%), Josh Jackson 56(8.3%). SOO players, surely not? Why aren't these players called poor defenders? Lelani Latu has missed 57 tackles (12.4%). 57 and he has played 2 games less than Cartwright. Incidentally James Maloney is number 1 with a whopping 86 tackles with a missed percentage of 29%.
What about ineffective tackles? Number 2 is Michael Ennis with 42 and then there is Corey Parker with 40 and Wade "underrated and can't dress properly" Graham with 31 and Cameron Smith, yes, the Cameron Smith with 30. Bryce has 34 ineffective tackles, so he does need to improve.
Now lets look at One on One tackles. Oh dear, this should be ugly right? Number one is Josh Jackson with 54. Eh? But he has missed 56, although his missed tackle percentage is 8.3% against Cartwright's 10.8%. Mind you, Cartwright's percentage in the second half of the season is 8% too. Our very own Peter Wallace features in this list (onya Pete) with 43 tackles and is number 7. At number 15 right next to Mitch Aubusson and above Simon Mannering is Bryce Cartwright with 40.
All this analysis has confirmed what my eyes have been telling me. Bryce has improved as the season has gone on. He should try and get better in defence, but is actually doing better than we think. He has made the 29th most tackles in the NRL, is good at one on one tackling (who would have thought?), but needs to improve to be considered an elite player. Mind you, there are elite players sitting alongside him in those lists so he is in good company.
But the stats showed more. Peter Wallace is transformed at hooker and his defence is key feature of his game (missed tackle 6.4%). Latu's defence is a worry. He isn't playing out of position so he can't use that excuse. He needs to concentrate on making better first contact and not rushing in for the big hit (no data, just from what I have seen. JFH does the same). However he has only played 22 games and is still adjusting to the physicality of first grade. He is not alone though. Both RCG and JFH have missed tackle percentages of 11% plus (worse than Cartwright). We don't need stats to know Penrith's defence is a concern at times, but they do reveal where our problems lie. Old stagers Latimore (5.5%), Wallace (6.4%), Merrin (6.9%) and McKendry (3.5%) show the way.
A Running Fullback or Not?
It has been said that Moylan can't defend and his kick returns are not good. It has been pointed out that his favourite move is to give it to Mansour or DWZ. What do the stats show? The number 1 kick returner is Will Hopoate with 124. Matt Moylan sits at 13th with 64. Of the fullbacks he rates 11th. He does have two wingers in Kyle Feldt and Jason Nightingale above him making more kick returns. At number 19 on the list is our very own DWZ. Obviously only an idiot would kick to Josh Mansour so DWZ fields more kicks and gets more hand offs from Moylan.
Surprisingly, diminutive, Hobbit like Lachlan Coote is third on the list with 99 kick returns. It's not about size then. Power? Err have you seen Lachlan Coote? He couldn't benchpress what Josh Mansour lifts doing bicep curls. Not power. Speed? Moylan and Coote in a foot race? Positioning? I have no stats to show how often the ball hits the floor from kicks but when it comes to kick defused, Moylan is 10th. Coote is third. Bombs defused Coote is 5th, Moylan 8th. This is confused by the fact Coote is 4th in kicks not defused meaning he must drop them. Moylan isn't even in the top 20. So Coote gets to the ball more often, but drops it more. Lachlan Coote reads the game well. Something is obviously missing in Moylan's game that sees him so far down the kick return list.
Kick return metres is also revealing. Gordon 9.8m per run, Hopoate 8.7m, Munster 10m, Boyd 10.2m, Tedesco 8.7m, Dugan 9.6m, Coote 6.95m. Moylan is making a very low 6.1m a run even less than Coote who weighs less than Josh Mansour's beard. DWZ is making 10.85m and is clearly a good kick returner up there with some of the best in the NRL. Incidentally, Greg Inglis makes 11.98m per run so DWZ is delivering an impressive meterage that he never really gets praise for. Probably because Mansour delivers such massive metres taking hit ups. Anyway you look at it, Moylan is not a running fullback and if that was your number one requirement, DWZ should get the job.
In defence Moylan is actually equal second (with Coote, Hopoate and Dugan) with 9 for the most try saving tackles. Barba is first with 14. Peter Wallace gets a mention for being 17th on the list with 4. This surprised me as I hadn't noticed Moylan making those sort of tackles, but clearly he does. His missed tackle percentage is 18.8% compared to Coote 28%, Boyd 23%, Dugan 19.8%, Hopoate 27%, Barba 29.8%, Munster 20.3%, Gordon 31.4%, Tedesco 37%.
This blew me away. Moylan is the most effective tackler of all the fullbacks (Inglis is not fullback anymore and if he was, he would be the best in defence). He never gets a single mention for his defence. Quite the opposite. Meanwhile he is quietly accumulating try saving tackles and blowing the likes of Tedesco off the park when it comes to defence. His creativity is not in question, he is just an odd sort of a fullback. A languid runner like somebody half heartedly running for the bus but knowing they will never make it. With his Cliffy Lyons' passes, Daren Lockyer body and Ronan Keating looks, it seems strange to think of him as an effective tackler. Not "cement" Gillespie but perhaps "Gyrprock" Moylan.
Elijah Taylor and Trent Merrin
There have been plenty who think we should have kept Taylor and not signed Merrin. Some say say we should keep both (not enough cash, move on nothing to see here). The stats show this. Taylor averages 44 tackles, missed tackles 2.7, runs 55m, 0.3 offloads, 0.1 tackle busts per game. Merrin averages 34.5 tackles, missed tackles 2.1, runs 154.7m, 2.3 offloads, 1.8 tackle busts per game. Simple really. Tackling excellence versus better attacking contribution. You decide. I'm with Sally's bloke.