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Surprising Stats

Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,856
If there is one thing that always bugs me it is when people fire off comments without any sort of facts or analysis. It is really about people trying to support some sort of agenda or bias and getting emotional. Here is an example from the Sporting News NRL Website. Journalist Andy Silver has posted a video clip and commentary piece headed "Knights dudded twice" in which he highlights two poor decisions that went against the Knights and laments the try scored by Matt Moylan after a poor decision. In which universe does a 42-6 flogging constitute being dudded by referees? An emotional piece that stands up to no rational analysis.

We all have our own agendas of course, myself included. But there are plenty of places we can get stats on the NRL to help form a more reasoned opinion. When you look at them, they often shock you with what they tell you. Here are some I found today when I was looking at the NRL stats leaderboard.

The Case For The Defence

When commenting on the Panther's game, Mark Gassier said "there is nothing wrong with Bryce Cartwright's tackling, it is his decision making". Well, Gassier was a great player and should know what he is talking about. I have already posted about his improvement elsewhere, but a quick look at the top 20 missed tackles list shows a few surprises. Bryce is 10th with 62 missed tackles (10.8%). Dylan Napa is 9th with 63 missed tackles (9.5%). What? Napa the Roosters hard man prop and tackling monster? 63 missed tackles and he has played one game less. Greg Bird has missed 60 tackles(13.4%), Darcy Lussick 59 (12.6%), Chris Macqueen 57 (9.5%), Josh Jackson 56(8.3%). SOO players, surely not? Why aren't these players called poor defenders? Lelani Latu has missed 57 tackles (12.4%). 57 and he has played 2 games less than Cartwright. Incidentally James Maloney is number 1 with a whopping 86 tackles with a missed percentage of 29%.

What about ineffective tackles? Number 2 is Michael Ennis with 42 and then there is Corey Parker with 40 and Wade "underrated and can't dress properly" Graham with 31 and Cameron Smith, yes, the Cameron Smith with 30. Bryce has 34 ineffective tackles, so he does need to improve.

Now lets look at One on One tackles. Oh dear, this should be ugly right? Number one is Josh Jackson with 54. Eh? But he has missed 56, although his missed tackle percentage is 8.3% against Cartwright's 10.8%. Mind you, Cartwright's percentage in the second half of the season is 8% too. Our very own Peter Wallace features in this list (onya Pete) with 43 tackles and is number 7. At number 15 right next to Mitch Aubusson and above Simon Mannering is Bryce Cartwright with 40.

All this analysis has confirmed what my eyes have been telling me. Bryce has improved as the season has gone on. He should try and get better in defence, but is actually doing better than we think. He has made the 29th most tackles in the NRL, is good at one on one tackling (who would have thought?), but needs to improve to be considered an elite player. Mind you, there are elite players sitting alongside him in those lists so he is in good company.

But the stats showed more. Peter Wallace is transformed at hooker and his defence is key feature of his game (missed tackle 6.4%). Latu's defence is a worry. He isn't playing out of position so he can't use that excuse. He needs to concentrate on making better first contact and not rushing in for the big hit (no data, just from what I have seen. JFH does the same). However he has only played 22 games and is still adjusting to the physicality of first grade. He is not alone though. Both RCG and JFH have missed tackle percentages of 11% plus (worse than Cartwright). We don't need stats to know Penrith's defence is a concern at times, but they do reveal where our problems lie. Old stagers Latimore (5.5%), Wallace (6.4%), Merrin (6.9%) and McKendry (3.5%) show the way.

A Running Fullback or Not?

It has been said that Moylan can't defend and his kick returns are not good. It has been pointed out that his favourite move is to give it to Mansour or DWZ. What do the stats show? The number 1 kick returner is Will Hopoate with 124. Matt Moylan sits at 13th with 64. Of the fullbacks he rates 11th. He does have two wingers in Kyle Feldt and Jason Nightingale above him making more kick returns. At number 19 on the list is our very own DWZ. Obviously only an idiot would kick to Josh Mansour so DWZ fields more kicks and gets more hand offs from Moylan.

Surprisingly, diminutive, Hobbit like Lachlan Coote is third on the list with 99 kick returns. It's not about size then. Power? Err have you seen Lachlan Coote? He couldn't benchpress what Josh Mansour lifts doing bicep curls. Not power. Speed? Moylan and Coote in a foot race? Positioning? I have no stats to show how often the ball hits the floor from kicks but when it comes to kick defused, Moylan is 10th. Coote is third. Bombs defused Coote is 5th, Moylan 8th. This is confused by the fact Coote is 4th in kicks not defused meaning he must drop them. Moylan isn't even in the top 20. So Coote gets to the ball more often, but drops it more. Lachlan Coote reads the game well. Something is obviously missing in Moylan's game that sees him so far down the kick return list.

Kick return metres is also revealing. Gordon 9.8m per run, Hopoate 8.7m, Munster 10m, Boyd 10.2m, Tedesco 8.7m, Dugan 9.6m, Coote 6.95m. Moylan is making a very low 6.1m a run even less than Coote who weighs less than Josh Mansour's beard. DWZ is making 10.85m and is clearly a good kick returner up there with some of the best in the NRL. Incidentally, Greg Inglis makes 11.98m per run so DWZ is delivering an impressive meterage that he never really gets praise for. Probably because Mansour delivers such massive metres taking hit ups. Anyway you look at it, Moylan is not a running fullback and if that was your number one requirement, DWZ should get the job.

In defence Moylan is actually equal second (with Coote, Hopoate and Dugan) with 9 for the most try saving tackles. Barba is first with 14. Peter Wallace gets a mention for being 17th on the list with 4. This surprised me as I hadn't noticed Moylan making those sort of tackles, but clearly he does. His missed tackle percentage is 18.8% compared to Coote 28%, Boyd 23%, Dugan 19.8%, Hopoate 27%, Barba 29.8%, Munster 20.3%, Gordon 31.4%, Tedesco 37%.

This blew me away. Moylan is the most effective tackler of all the fullbacks (Inglis is not fullback anymore and if he was, he would be the best in defence). He never gets a single mention for his defence. Quite the opposite. Meanwhile he is quietly accumulating try saving tackles and blowing the likes of Tedesco off the park when it comes to defence. His creativity is not in question, he is just an odd sort of a fullback. A languid runner like somebody half heartedly running for the bus but knowing they will never make it. With his Cliffy Lyons' passes, Daren Lockyer body and Ronan Keating looks, it seems strange to think of him as an effective tackler. Not "cement" Gillespie but perhaps "Gyrprock" Moylan.

Elijah Taylor and Trent Merrin

There have been plenty who think we should have kept Taylor and not signed Merrin. Some say say we should keep both (not enough cash, move on nothing to see here). The stats show this. Taylor averages 44 tackles, missed tackles 2.7, runs 55m, 0.3 offloads, 0.1 tackle busts per game. Merrin averages 34.5 tackles, missed tackles 2.1, runs 154.7m, 2.3 offloads, 1.8 tackle busts per game. Simple really. Tackling excellence versus better attacking contribution. You decide. I'm with Sally's bloke.
 

MrBlack

Juniors
Messages
1,302
Merrin has been an outstanding signing, both on and off the field.

How many teams can afford to carry a spare fullback on the interchange bench.......
 

betcats

Referee
Messages
23,471
I enjoyed the read Pomoz but stats don't always tell the full story. Cartwright for example often does make good contact but there are plenty of times he gets the read correct and still just falls off the tackle because of a poor attempt. The Darius Boyd try the other week and Cordner last week, two perfect examples of piss poor tackling attempts by Cartwright. Also comparing Cartwright, an edge forward who has spent plenty of time in the halves this season to middle forwards doesn't really tell us anything, it isn't a like comparison.

Also re Moylan and the try saving tackles, everyone here has probably seen most of his games this year and I seriously doubt anyone would pick him to be high in that list, id like to know what is being classed as a try saving tackle.

As far as one on one tackling is concerned ive always said he can tackle hence why I was never concerned about his defence in the halves but he doesn't have the strength to wrap up the ball when players are on or over the line.
 

ACTPanthers

Bench
Messages
4,697
Brilliant write up Pomoz - A really interesting read.

Some of those were actually quite surprising - As betcats has said, stats don't always provided an entirely accurate picture, but I will say, even without the stats, I have noticed that Cartys defence is getting better as the season goes on - He'll come good I reckon

The kick returns one get's me - It's not that I don't believe it, it's just that I don't really see it in game - I could be missing it I suppose.

Mez has been brilliant - He was always going to be solid, but I'll admit I didn't see him being this good.
 

Munky

Coach
Messages
10,198
DWZ makes good metres on kick returns but isn't as effective as Mansour at forcing either a quick play the ball or penalty.

Moylan can also be poorly positioned at full back which is something Coote excels at and something that can be hard to objectively measure as a statistic.
 

Fibroman

First Grade
Messages
8,216
I've never been a stats man to be honest. In saying that, you can't watch every player on the field and what they are doing on and off the ball at all times, particularly watching on tv, so short of reviewing the game 17 times with different camera angles we need to rely on stats to a certain degree. I still like to form my opinion based on what my eyes see during the game rather than what I read after the game.
 

Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,856
DWZ makes good metres on kick returns but isn't as effective as Mansour at forcing either a quick play the ball or penalty.

Moylan can also be poorly positioned at full back which is something Coote excels at and something that can be hard to objectively measure as a statistic.
It sort of comes out in the bomb defusing and kick defusing. Coote's catching more balls fits in with what we know watching him at Penrith. He wasn't a bad reader of the game and positioned reasonably well. That gets better with experience too and Moylan ist still a newbie really. 66 games versus Cootes 129.
 

Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,856
I've never been a stats man to be honest. In saying that, you can't watch every player on the field and what they are doing on and off the ball at all times, particularly watching on tv, so short of reviewing the game 17 times with different camera angles we need to rely on stats to a certain degree. I still like to form my opinion based on what my eyes see during the game rather than what I read after the game.
That's the point though isn't it? Who would have thought Moylan was the best defender amongst the fullbacks from watching the game? Or that DWZ was tearing up the kick return metres (I wish he would stop dropping it though)?
 

betcats

Referee
Messages
23,471
That's the point though isn't it? Who would have thought Moylan was the best defender amongst the fullbacks from watching the game? Or that DWZ was tearing up the kick return metres (I wish he would stop dropping it though)?

No one because he isn't no matter what the stats say. Stats can be terribly misleading, Moylan is obviously better defensively than he gets credit for but lets not be ridiculous.
 

Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,856
I enjoyed the read Pomoz but stats don't always tell the full story. Cartwright for example often does make good contact but there are plenty of times he gets the read correct and still just falls off the tackle because of a poor attempt. The Darius Boyd try the other week and Cordner last week, two perfect examples of piss poor tackling attempts by Cartwright. Also comparing Cartwright, an edge forward who has spent plenty of time in the halves this season to middle forwards doesn't really tell us anything, it isn't a like comparison.

Also re Moylan and the try saving tackles, everyone here has probably seen most of his games this year and I seriously doubt anyone would pick him to be high in that list, id like to know what is being classed as a try saving tackle.

As far as one on one tackling is concerned ive always said he can tackle hence why I was never concerned about his defence in the halves but he doesn't have the strength to wrap up the ball when players are on or over the line.
The thing is, comparing him to an edge forward is a valid comparison because his tackling volume isn't like a half. His has made the 29th most number of tackles in the NRL, the 3rd most for Penrith. He is being run at as teams try and tire him out and so is making as many tackles as most forwards. JT has made less than half the tackles, Cronk and Shaun Johnson 60% of the tackles. To his credit, in spite of playing at 5/8th he is rolling the sleeves up and tackling like a forward. 572 tackles is a valid comparison. If only some of our other players tackled as often and as well.

As for try saving tackles, no definition is given. But since they are measured the same across the NRL, it probably doesn't matter. The fact Moylan is up there is the surprise.
 

betcats

Referee
Messages
23,471
The thing is, comparing him to an edge forward is a valid comparison because his tackling volume isn't like a half. His has made the 29th most number of tackles in the NRL, the 3rd most for Penrith. He is being run at as teams try and tire him out and so is making as many tackles as most forwards. JT has made less than half the tackles, Cronk and Shaun Johnson 60% of the tackles. To his credit, in spite of playing at 5/8th he is rolling the sleeves up and tackling like a forward. 572 tackles is a valid comparison. If only some of our other players tackled as often and as well.

As for try saving tackles, no definition is given. But since they are measured the same across the NRL, it probably doesn't matter. The fact Moylan is up there is the surprise.

His volume might be similar but its still not the same job. Defending on an edge has its own difficulties that the middle doesn't have and vice versa. Bryce might be better in the middle for all we know...either way its not a like comparison imo.

Re the try saving tackles, I know it is being measured the same for everyone but depending how they are measuring it there might be something in the way we defend or play that has him up there, I mean its probably just the fact that we are poor defenders through the middle(Latu, RCG, Matagi etc) and Moylan has to finish off a lot of tackles close to our line. Anyway I guess what I am getting at is if Moylan was a really good defender and was stopping a lot of tries surely atleast one of us obsessed fans would see it?
 
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mxlegend99

Referee
Messages
23,006
Stats are more a guideline than anything else. Not every missed tackle or ineffective tackle is equal. Some tackles are missed so badly because of poor reads that they don't go down as a missed tackle at all because they didn't make any contact at all.

Do they remove metres from metres gained for fullbacks getting driven back on a kick return? ie. if Moylan made 5 kick returns at 30m gained, and had one at 10m loss. Is he still 30m gained or do they subtract the metres he lost?

Mansour doesn't get kick return metres because they won't let him return kicks. Moylan fields them and dumps them to him, so those metres wouldn't be kick return metres. DWZ is a bigger target but they tend to prefer Moylan fields the ball and stop him from offloading it. Moylan isn't a threat on a kick return.
 

Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,856
No one because he isn't no matter what the stats say. Stats can be terribly misleading, Moylan is obviously better defensively than he gets credit for but lets not be ridiculous.
Yes, stats can be misleading. Although a missed tackle is a missed tackle.

If you play in a team with a good defence, such as the Storm, you would think that it would give you more chance of being good in defence because other players are there to help (gang tackling masterclass), you dominate possession therefore tiring you less. Different stats show that and it needs to be added to the analysis. The fullbacks in the best defensive teams, the Storm, the Broncos, the Dogs, miss more tackles than Gyrpock Moylan. Yet poor old Moysa, in a team of turnstiles, with the second highest missed tackles in the NRL, has managed to have the best missed tackle percentage.

Incidentally, they have all made less tackles than Moylan. Some players have made less than half the number of tackles Moylan has made. Maybe that is the answer. He has had so much practice tackling because we let so many line breaks, he has got good at it without us noticing. Mainly because everybody goes "what muppet let that player through for a line break?" and not focusing on the man stopping the play.

Dugan is held up as the best defensive fullback in the NRL. Well right now he misses more tackles than Matt Moylan. Not by much, but he does. Fact.
 

Pomoz

Bench
Messages
2,856
Do they remove metres from metres gained for fullbacks getting driven back on a kick return? ie. if Moylan made 5 kick returns at 30m gained, and had one at 10m loss. Is he still 30m gained or do they subtract the metres he lost?

Mansour doesn't get kick return metres because they won't let him return kicks. Moylan fields them and dumps them to him, so those metres wouldn't be kick return metres. DWZ is a bigger target but they tend to prefer Moylan fields the ball and stop him from offloading it. Moylan isn't a threat on a kick return.
That's why I said, only an idiot would kick to Mansour. The ball never goes near him. I'm not sure about negative metres, but thankfully that doesn't happen that often with Moylan.

Just in case people think I'm attacking Matt Moylan, let me be clear, I think he is a great player. If DWZ can keep returning the kick returns then his weakness there is covered. In every other aspect, including as it turns out, defence, he is excellent.

It is interesting isn't it, to think of swapping him for Dugan. Dugan is probably the best defender at fullback, in spite of what the stats currently say (I know Betcats I agree, I know Moylan isn't the best defensive fullback). He is a better kick returner than Moylan too. Would we swap them? I think the answer is "you, your mate and your Pineapple Breezers can get nicked, Gyprock is with us". He creativity is only surpassed by Barba this season and we compensate for his poor returns with DWZ and Mansour. Besides, I can't cop having a player in our team who drinks Breezers. It just ain't the right image for the Riff.
 

betcats

Referee
Messages
23,471
As Mx has just said himself not all missed tackles are equal, though I am not going to argue the figures that kind of blind faith in stats is how we end up being misled. Either way mate you can pull out what ever stats you want but you will have very difficult time convincing anyone who pays attention that Moylan is the best defensive fullback in the comp or even in the discussion.
 

maple_69

Bench
Messages
4,423
No one is saying he's the best defensive fullback in the game. He is lampooned for his defence, stats at otherwise, maybe he's not so bad. That's all this is.

I tend to think these stats reflect the way he plays. He is forced up in the line much more due to our leaky defence. As a result he saves tries. I think it's also the reason to the eye he isn't making those try savers. He often seems to be a step off a try scoring plau because he is rushing back from plugging another hole.

I think he's improved as our sides defence has improved over the last month. Return meters are a worry but in the context of how we play and who we have, it's not an issue at all. We can't have everything.
 

chrisD

Coach
Messages
13,455
Nonsense stats. Moylan is an ineffective ball returner because he gets manhandled by the defence and driven back in the tackle if he takes it to a set line, starting the set off on awful footing, well until Mansour has a carry. The result is he doesn't carry the ball back, which is the right way to go about things. The lead up into origin where he was kamikazeeing into the line to prove something was f**king ridiculous and ultimately ineffective.

Moylan made one very good try saver recently. The best I can ever remember him making. The rest are all tackles even he should make. The half half ones a good defensive fullback can make he generally does not, but there haven't really been any of them in recent times. One fell to Hardaker I think against Cordner, and he wasn't able to make the stop either.

In comparison, freaks like Slater or Tedesco gets to plays to make stops Moylan just wouldn't get to. And a lot of those stats are padding from him running into the line joining to a tackle of two or three people already, not your traditional fullback tackle where a player is through the line.
 
Messages
17,744
Moylan just doesn't have the desperation. Edwards showed it in his first game when he turned and chased a grubber and somehow beat Valentine Holmes to the ball.
 
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Kilkenny

Coach
Messages
13,148
I don't have issue's with any aspects of Matty Moylan's game.

I don't see why we need to mark him down in certain area's when it is the overall package that is the most important thing.
 
Messages
17,744
Im a massive fan who thinks he's potentially the best half in the game. He is already the best passer of the football by some margin. Nothing wrong with honest discussion about players shortcomings
 
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