The Bears

[titoelcolombiano]

Warriors fan in Wellington here. I might still watch if we went back to just a Sydney comp.. but nowhere near as much, and the NRL can forget about me buying merchandise if that happened.

Taking away a team from my country would kinda turn me off the league, to be honest.. and be a signal that they really don't care for the game here - and that they just wanna go back to an insular "Sydney above all else" mindset.

Might even get me opening my wallet for Hurricanes tickets & merchandise...

I'm Brisbane based, don't follow one particular club but have a soft spot for QLD and expansion clubs. I'd have very little interest in a Sydney only league. I'd follow whichever comp the other non-Sydney clubs ended up in. If that was non-existent then maybe I'd follow Catalans and Toulouse in SL.

 

[flippikat]

I'm Brisbane based, don't follow one particular club but have a soft spot for QLD and expansion clubs. I'd have very little interest in a Sydney only league. I'd follow whichever comp the other non-Sydney clubs ended up in. If that was non-existent then maybe I'd follow Catalans and Toulouse in SL.

The original premise I was responding to was "What if the competition reverted to Sydney/NSW only?", presumably without a top tier breakaway interstate/NZ competition.. but if that DID happen, I'd certainly chuck my support behind the more expansionist & outward looking league as well.

 

[taipan]

hmm, now I by no means suggest these stats prove anything as there is a ton of variables but just as counterbalance to your argument..... Bears had roughly 10-12k active fans attending in the early 90's before SL and then their demise.

Roosters crowds have gone from 9-11k to 13-16k since the demise of the bears
Balmains went from 7-9k to 12-17k as Wests Tigers in that period
Manlys hasnt changed but they play a t a sht ground thats hard to get to so not surprising there

And you could argue booting the Bears created space for GC which is avg'ing 13-14k and has ppotential to be a lot bigger, so more than we lost.

If there was a big exodus of Bear's supporters to other clubs ,they don't mention it in forums.It doesn't show too any extent in Manly/WT or Roosters.Yes there are the odd ones.
Now we have in addition to union,fumbleball entrenched in Nth Sydney.
To say people don't turn off is BS IMO.Geoff Prenter editor of the Famous RLW magazine and staunch Dragons fam left the code ,when Murdoch took over with SL.
And you should know Micheal Parkinson well know interviewer and Yorkshire man, turned off rl when SL happened.



Roosters have been in the high end of the ladder.Stand alone club not merged with no juniors so to speak.
West Tigers is a combo of two clubs ,and it can be argued as such they should be averaging more than the current average 15,867 in 2019 before COVID.
Manly will have an improved ground and they average 13,777 in 2019 at that sh*t ground.
Dragons(joint venture) averaged 9,813 in 2019.
Sharks 12,224 in 2019 which though not brilliant not much less than most of the Sydney clubs.
Penrith 12,482 average 2019
Souths 15,601
If most Sydney clubs averaged 25K and a couple 10-15K there's be an argument

Yet in 2019 Cows averaged 13,658 with their catchment area, not brilliant
Titans 11,587 with their great stadium in 2019
Brisbane with the whole of Brisbane and a RL city averaged 29,516.Population in 2016 2.28m.
Melbourne with their huge success in a 1 team city closing in on Sydney's population 18,230.
Canberra 14,864 in 2019
Yes it's important to have a national spread, never have I suggested otherwise.
But don't kid yourself nor continually bag for non crowd performance in Sydney,when on a pro rata pop. basis they are pulling their weight.And it can argued some of the Interstate clubs could be doing a lot better.You have to look at the historical high crowds at some games in Sydney as an extra factor.Such as local derbies.

 

[taipan]

We don't know which clubs are sustainable because they all get $13m a year from the ARLC.

If there's ever a massive hit in broadcast revenue then quite a few clubs will find it hard to survive.

Well if they can't operate with the $13m grant included, then they are not sustainable.What if that was the Titans, Cowboys etc. and the Titan's owners wont dig in ,or the Storm.


If there is a massive hit in broadcast revenue ,the code itself would take a massive hit.We got an example of where a drop in income hurts in 2020/21.Ask the people retrenched within the NRL admin and the clubs.

I'll say this at least with the admin we have now in the code, they battled through this COVID sh*t for two and maybe 3 years,and kept the code afloat.
If they handle a C.C.P China virus (hello Wuhan lab and "Gain of Function bat virus),then the code battling revenue from TV stations would be easier to negotiate.These stations need a major sport as lead ins.

 

[RL The greatest game]

If there was a big exodus of Bear's supporters to other clubs ,they don't mention it in forums.It doesn't show too any extent in Manly/WT or Roosters.Yes there are the odd ones.
Now we have in addition to union,fumbleball entrenched in Nth Sydney.
To say people don't turn off is BS IMO.Geoff Prenter editor of the Famous RLW magazine and staunch Dragons fam left the code ,when Murdoch took over with SL.
And you should know Micheal Parkinson well know interviewer and Yorkshire man, turned off rl when SL happened.



Roosters have been in the high end of the ladder.Stand alone club not merged with no juniors so to speak.
West Tigers is a combo of two clubs ,and it can be argued as such they should be averaging more than the current average 15,867 in 2019 before COVID.
Manly will have an improved ground and they average 13,777 in 2019 at that sh*t ground.
Dragons(joint venture) averaged 9,813 in 2019.
Sharks 12,224 in 2019 which though not brilliant not much less than most of the Sydney clubs.
Penrith 12,482 average 2019
Souths 15,601
If most Sydney clubs averaged 25K and a couple 10-15K there's be an argument

Yet in 2019 Cows averaged 13,658 with their catchment area, not brilliant
Titans 11,587 with their great stadium in 2019
Brisbane with the whole of Brisbane and a RL city averaged 29,516.Population in 2016 2.28m.
Melbourne with their huge success in a 1 team city closing in on Sydney's population 18,230.
Canberra 14,864 in 2019
Yes it's important to have a national spread, never have I suggested otherwise.
But don't kid yourself nor continually bag for non crowd performance in Sydney,when on a pro rata pop. basis they are pulling their weight.And it can argued some of the Interstate clubs could be doing a lot better.You have to look at the historical high crowds at some games in Sydney as an extra factor.Such as local derbies.

There is a way for the Bears and only a slim chance chance of getting back into the elite comp and that is playing out of the CC. I know it's slim, but it's a chance

 

[RL The greatest game]

If our game wishes to remain a mainstream sport in Australia then it needs to expand into new markets. If it tries to survive on a Brisbane and Sydney footprint then it will lose relevance as the rusted-on fans die off and are replaced by a new generation that only cares about the glamour and prestige of easy to access global sporting brands.

Another issue is accessibility. The short-term windfall the ARLC gets from the Fox Sports deal is bad in the long run for our game as it makes it too expensive for many of our potential younger fans to access it. Not everyone can fork out $25 per month for a Kayo subscription with rent being $450+ week.

For $6 a month I can watch NBL, NBA, NFL and NHL on Fetch TV's Vibe Pack. That's what the NRL, AwFuL and cricket are up against over the next five years. Don't be surprised if more people consume American sports and European soccer competitions, as it's easier than ever to do so.

I think Cairns would be a great place to have a NRL club.
Rugby League is already popular there and a NRL club there would add to the junior playing pool and increase the games fan base and pique interest among those who have moved there and the surrounding areas and disaffected Rugby League fans.
A win win situation for the NRL.

 

[Perth Red]

There is a way for the Bears and only a slim chance chance of getting back into the elite comp and that is playing out of the CC. I know it's slim, but it's a chance

Seems they’ve given up on that chance and handed the region to the roosters.

 

[RL The greatest game]

Seems they’ve given up on that chance and handed the region to the roosters.

That's a shame on their part and in my opinion that was the only way they could get back to the top flight

 

[Colk]

That's a shame on their part and in my opinion that was the only way they could get back to the top flight

Probably. Although they could also look at options outside of NSW. It’s interesting if the stadium at Gosford is developed further whether that in turn leads to pressure on certain clubs to make the move permanently. Ideally, the CC should be a relocated side rather than an entirely new side (unless you want a 22-24 team competition which doesn’t seem feasible)

 

[RL The greatest game]

Probably. Although they could also look at options outside of NSW. It’s interesting if the stadium at Gosford is developed further whether that in turn leads to pressure on certain clubs to make the move permanently. Ideally, the CC should be a relocated side rather than an entirely new side (unless you want a 22-24 team competition which doesn’t seem feasible)

As it stands at the moment i can't see any Sydney NRL clubs relocating to the CC, but perhaps there are things going on behind the scenes that I'm not aware of.

 

[Colk]

As it stands at the moment i can't see any Sydney NRL clubs relocating to the CC, but perhaps there are things going on behind the scenes that I'm not aware of.

I think it is incredibly unlikely too; particularly with the stadium developments around Sydney. The best chance would have probably been Manly (even more so if the Brookvale development was shelved). But who knows what will happen in 10 years or so.

If the CC stadium becomes as good as say the one in the Hunter then there may be pressure on certain sides

 

[siv]

CC stadium just needs a northern end upper deck

 

[Perth Red]

I think Cairns would be a great place to have a NRL club.
Rugby League is already popular there and a NRL club there would add to the junior playing pool and increase the games fan base and pique interest among those who have moved there and the surrounding areas and disaffected Rugby League fans.
A win win situation for the NRL.

You think a city of 160k people is going to be able to sustain a $30mill a year nrl club? Lol
There’s already a club covering it, it’s called North Queensland!

 

[Reflector]

The CC should have a club long before Cairns does.

As I've said before- split WT. Balmain go north, team up with the Firehawks bid who can revert to the spiritual name of the bid (Tigers) and bingo, you have the Brisbane Tigers, playing maybe 1 or 2 games a year at Leichardt. Wests go back to Campbelltown full-time and can devote all their resources to capitalising on the S-W Sydney growth over the coming decades.

Perth- admitted to the comp.

Bears- admitted as the CC Bears, playing 1-2 games a year at NSO.

There's your 20 team comp, and from there natural attrition dictates who survives and who dies. Nobody is forced to fold/ merge/ relocate= win.

 

[The Great Dane]

The CC should have a club long before Cairns does.

Neither should get an NRL license, at least not in this lifetime... Definitely not while metropolises go without or underrepresented.

As I've said before- split WT. Balmain go north, team up with the Firehawks bid who can revert to the spiritual name of the bid (Tigers) and bingo, you have the Brisbane Tigers, playing maybe 1 or 2 games a year at Leichardt. Wests go back to Campbelltown full-time and can devote all their resources to capitalising on the S-W Sydney growth over the coming decades.

What would Balmain bring to a merger with Easts?

They're broke, they've got f**k all fans left, and Easts already owns their own Tigers brand. So Easts don't need Balmain and if they did partner Balmain would end up in the exact same position as they are now in their current merger; a ting minority partner whom bring nothing to the table and are more trouble than they are worth.

If West Ashfield had the least interest in focusing their efforts on Campbelltown it would have happened a decade ago. They don't and they never will unless there's a massive change in their way of thinking. They're convinced that there's more money in the Inner West sponsorship market than there is in the whole South West market. They're wrong, but what are you going to do, the NRL doesn't have a mechanism to force the clubs to work in the best interest of the sport or league.

Perth- admitted to the comp.

Bears- admitted as the CC Bears, playing 1-2 games a year at NSO.

CC is never ever going to happen, and even the Bears know it. That's why they wrapped the CC Bears bid up for good a few years ago and have created a new (even more stupid) bid.

If the Bears were truly serious about getting back into the NRL at any cost then they should have started doing work in an expansion market (WA, SA, maybe even Vic or NZ) 15+ years ago, with a goal of launching a bid from there. They haven't done that, and they never will because the people in charge are stuck in the past with delusions of the Bears one day running onto NSO every second week again.

In other words their heads are firmly stuck up their own arses, and as a Bears fan it's very frustrating.

There's your 20 team comp, and from there natural attrition dictates who survives and who dies. Nobody is forced to fold/ merge/ relocate= win.

At this point I'm a geriatric and people in power have been talking about 'natural attrition' for as long as I can remember. With the sole exception of Newtown (whom were sabotaged by Wests in the end), every time it's come time to let a 'traditional club' die of natural attrition they've always backed down, and I see no reason why that pattern will suddenly change, especially if it's one of the power brokers club's on the line.

Of course that's why you're pushing 'natural attrition', because you know that when push comes to shove the establishment will happily bail out failed clubs over and over without any repercussions.

 

[Perth Red]

NRL signs a TV deal guaranteeing games, they cant let clubs fall over despite all their bluster. After bailing out Titans and Knights and giving clubs $6mill a year more they said no more, then set up a emergency fund for clubs who got into trouble lol

 

[siv]

Have the CC Bears been given the 18th licence yet?

Must not be long now

 

[The Great Dane]

NRL signs a TV deal guaranteeing games, they cant let clubs fall over despite all their bluster. After bailing out Titans and Knights and giving clubs $6mill a year more they said no more, then set up a emergency fund for clubs who got into trouble lol

The TV deal doesn't force the NRL to bail clubs out. In fact the Newcastle and the GC cases prove that as their owners weren't bailed out.

Once a club goes bankrupt the NRL are well within their rights to reclaim their license, at which point the NRL can do multiple things, the two main ones being-

1. Take the license and sell it to a new consortium.

2. Take ownership of the club and rebuild it before flipping it along with the license to new owners. Which is what they did with the Knights and GC.

If every club was treated the way the Knights and GC were then there wouldn't be an issue, but in Sydney multiple clubs have all gone broke multiple times and been bailed out with loans and grants from the league and/or angel investors, thus disincentivising good business practices and reinforcing an oversaturated market, which is obviously a bad outcome for multiple reasons.

If the NRL was a well run organisation then multiple of said Sydney clubs would have got the Fitzroy treatment over the years, and the sport and league would be in a much better position as a result.

 

[Perth Red]

The TV deal doesn't force the NRL to bail clubs out. In fact the Newcastle and the GC cases prove that as their owners weren't bailed out.

Once a club goes bankrupt the NRL are well within their rights to reclaim their license, at which point the NRL can do multiple things, the two main ones being-

1. Take the license and sell it to a new consortium.

2. Take ownership of the club and rebuild it before flipping it along with the license to new owners. Which is what they did with the Knights and GC.

If every club was treated the way the Knights and GC were then there wouldn't be an issue, but in Sydney multiple clubs have all gone broke multiple times and been bailed out with loans and grants from the league and/or angel investors, thus disincentivising good business practices and reinforcing an oversaturated market, which is obviously a bad outcome for multiple reasons.

If the NRL was a well run organisation then multiple of said Sydney clubs would have got the Fitzroy treatment over the years, and the sport and league would be in a much better position as a result.

Whose gone bust? Tigers needed an NRL loan for the Balmain payments, Dragons needed a loan. Sharks to my knowledge and despite some big loss years haven't had an NRL loan. I'm not aware of any club going into administration or bankruptcy and NRL handing them money to get out of fit?
Pretty sure Tinkler was broke and wanted rid of them, and Titans were sold back to the same people involved in it going bust.
Yes in theory the NRL could take the license, fund the remaining season and try to rush the start up of a new club somewhere else for the following season but they have never done that and likely never will.

 

[Diesel]

I’m sure the NRL could take the licence, much like Knights or Titans and then re-sell it with conditions, say a Sydney club to relocate