Alan Shore
First Grade
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Rleague said:Preview: Dragons to finish Minor Premiers
Mon Dec 15, 11:14pm (NSW)
Written by: Damien Herb
Source: NRL.rleague.com Website
Already there has been a significant build up to the 2004 National Rugby League Season despite the fact that it is still some three months away. That has not stopped supporters, critics and players continuously discussing what is likely to take place in the 7th NRL competition. Rugby League and the Telstra Premiership now looks as healthy as it has been since 1994.
However, a decade later may produce the most even competition ever with only Manly and Souths looking out of their league. So how can one predict what will happen in the new premiership, who should punters put money on. Well it's as simple as following statistics and coming to s sensible conclusion. Unfortunately in the modern game the majority of a teams fortune relies on injuries to key players.
So who will finish minor premiers, who will be the NRL bolters and who will be the major disappointment of 2004. Lets now have a look at an unbiased guide to NRL 2004:
Going on results from the previous 6 years I believe that the St.George-Illawarra Dragons will finish minor premiers after 26 rounds. I am not saying that they will win the comp, but I believe they have the talent to finish in the top 4. Every minor premier from 1999 onwards has come from 7th or lower the previous season to finish minor premier. In 1999 the Sharks claimed the minor premiership title after missing the top 10 in 1998. A year later the Broncos sat on top of the tree after scraping on to 8th spot in 1999. And so it goes on, Parramatta had a record breaking 2001 on top of the table after finishing just 7th in the year 2000. In 2001 the Warriors made the finals for the first time in 8th, the year after they claimed poll position. And finally the fairytale of all fairy tales with Penrith coming from third last to minor premiers and winning the premiership.
If you look at the bottom 9 sides from 2003 it can be noted that not many have the talent or credentials to be challenging for the number 1 title in 2004. Newcastle and Brisbane had poor years and will improve but both are in rebuilding stages and will settle for spots in the eight.
Parramatta has recruited well but has also lost a number of players. I believe they will improve but will struggle to make an impression on the top 4. Manly and Souths will battle it out for the spoon. The Cowboys will continue to improve and get a touch closer to a historic first ever Finals series, while the Tigers will at last be competitive for the majority of the season.
This only leaves the Sharks and the Dragons. In alot of cases people have tipped the Sharks to finish high in the top 8. My opinion is they will struggle to field a spot in the top 10. They have no 5/8, three centres and they forward pack is stable at best. Jason Stevens seemed extremely uninterested in football last year and he and fellow front rowers will have to muscle up.
Therefore as the Dragons backline contains the likes of Blacklock, Cooper and Gasnier, coupled with one of the most dynamic halves pairings in the league Barrett and Firman I believe they are able to play a much higher quality football than what they did in 2003. Add to this their forward pack involving two international front rowers, and Timmins at lock packing in behind Lance Thompson, and the Dragons show why they are potentially very dangerous. 2004 is also a big year for Mark Riddell who will need to step up to a higher consistency level.
The rest of my predictions are as follows:
1. Dragons - About time they fired. A team full of rep stars will stay injury free and push right up until week 3 of the finals.
2. Warriors - Had a very impressive year missing their 5/8, hooker PJ Marsh and big Ali for the majority of the year. One wonders what they can achieve if those three along with Stacey Jones can stay fit.
3. Panthers - Will continue to be a force in the competition. One wonders whether they can reproduce their 2003 form with the amount of rep players from their side in 2004.
4. Roosters - Disappointment of 2003 will haunt Ricky's side I'm afraid and although they will still be a hard team to beat they will not contest the grand final
5. Knights - About time they had some luck with injuries. Their last two seasons have been devastated by injury to Johns, Kennedy, Buderus, Simpson, O'Davis and Hughes. Andrew Johns will be looking to make amends for the fact that the last full Finals match he played in was the 2001 Grand Final some two and a half years a ago.
6. Bulldogs - Unfortunately it will be downhill for the Doggies, and depending on other results could find themselves booted out of the finals before they realise it. Their outside backs all of a sudden lack depth and potency and unless Anasta can regain his once stellar form the Dogs look in grave danger of slipping down the ladder.
7. Eels - Brian Smith and the Eels do not take to kindly to being unsuccessful and being told this. The Eels and their coach copped alot of flack in 2003 after a dreadful start to the season. Once again if their big three (Cayless, Hindmarsh and Vella) can stay fit, and Dykes and Witt can feed some good ball to Lyon they should challenge well into the finals. The depth in their backline is a worry.
8. Broncos - I would not be surprised if this prediction is wrong and the Broncos finish in the top couple, however it could be just as likely that they miss the eight all together. The addition of Motu Tony will add some spark to their backline, but it is their aging forward pack and untried halves combination which will be a major worry. Add this to the grueling representative schedule and things look bleak up in Brissie.
9. Wests Tigers - The brightest year for the Tigers since their inception in 2000. With a number of new recruits the Tigers on paper should be a stiff challenger for a top 6 position. I believe they will sit in this position for the majority of 2004 but at the final hurdle will fall with important games in the last 8 rounds. Their backrow will be their strength as well as young guns like Hodgson, Richards, Prince, Clayton, Fitzhenry, Wilson and Marshall, the Tigers will be a major improver in 2004.
10. Storm - Despite having a champagne 2003 season the Storm always looked a class below the top sides when it came to the crunch. And despite having Scott Hill back for 2004 I believe they will struggle to reproduce a successful finals birth two years in a row. They will still be competitive before falling short in the closing rounds of 2004.
11. Sharks - The Sharks will get off to a slow start to the year before coming good much too late. Kimmorley will have a much better season but it will not be enough to lead the Sharks out of oblivion and into the finals.
12. Raiders - Although the Raiders do have a classy side, it was hard to see them beating some of the other top sides if the full complement of players are available. Expect Canberra to sit at the bottom of the eight for most of 2004 before falling in the final 10 6 rounds as more desperate sides take over.
13. Cowboys - With the return of Nathan Fien the men from up North will improve their quality of football in 2004. However with stars like Sing, Campion and Morrison aging the Cowboys will not have enough to go the distance with most teams. They will challenge for a Finals birth but in the most evenly contested premiership yet, they will struggle to make an imprint on the top 10.
14. Sea Eagles - They too have made some handy acquisitions such as Andrew Walker, but in doing so have also lost some great young talent. Luke Dorn and Aaron Cannings both looked to have strong futures at Brookvale only to be let go to power clubs Parramatta and the Roosters. Their lack of depth will be costly and they will fight the Rabbitohs to avoid the dreaded 15th spot.
15. Souths - I honestly believe Souths will improve remarkably on their 2003/2004 form. They and the Eagles will finish level on competition points only for percentages to hand them three spoon in a row. The form of Willie Peters was worrying last year, the return of Scott Geddes and some young outside backs will add spark but I do not believe Paul Langmack is the right coach to lead the Bunnies out of the doldrums.
So like it or lump it that is the guide to the 2004 NRL Telstra Premiership. There will be some major shocks and surprises, but as I said before unfortunately in the modern game a sides fortune depends greatly on injuries to key personal.
Dragons for Minor Premiers? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
