The past year has seen outstanding growth in the game worldwide, I will underline each nations world cup chances as well as development.
Overall positives: The junior world cup in Russia(even though many teams did not show), the university world cup, Frances euro cup victory, Catalan in super league, Celtic crusaders in nl2, USA Ireland continued expansion, the work of the rlef in expanding in Europe and Australia finally losing a series.
Negatives: nrl & superleague running game restricts game worldwide, and unions interference.
The automatic qualifiers
Australia
The superpower of the game, countless stars, huge media exposure the game moving ahead very year.
Need more support for world cup in 2008.
The key:if the aussies are going forward, and mini and lockyer given room no one gets near aussies, however can be knocked over by overconfidence and not playing percentages.
World cup: certain favorites at home.
England
Game going good over there big media exposure and strong juniors, however the national team struggles to beat the two other powers nz & aussies, they have trouble settling on halves must look to maguire and pyrce in halves. Seem to get into habit of matching opposition style of play and then being outsmarted.
The key: fieldon, peacock and sculthorpe if these men play they are a big chance to win.
World cup: semi finalist cannot see them get past nz or aussies, without confident halves.
New Zealand
Huge number of kiwis in aussie system about every nrl team outside warriors has 2 to 3 nz players average in system, the bartercard is a good breading ground + the players in superleague, the juniors regularly beat the Aussies and won both the tri series and university world cup. Need another nrl team in the next 10 years, the test team biggest problem what combinations huge potential need to be disciplined.
The key: if stacey, benji and sbw play on field at same time will really be a big force, along with blokes like ali and solomona will be hard to stop in any match.
The world cup: finalist and if aussies are a little underprepared can win.
France
A lot of confidence after euro cup win and very credible performances vs nz, eng & aussies, catalan exposing french players to superleague, along with more media exposure will see more stars arrive, rugby interference there biggest worry, huge optimism.
The key: the best side is picked in the national team. Gresque and rinaldi need to play in halves, fakir is the star and the key if he stars in this world cup he will play in the nrl, if these three perform to there best France are up there with the best teams.
World cup: definite semi final chance, need best players on park to get there however.
PNG
A lot of change in png of the last 2 years all for the good, the sp cup huge success, big crowd averages around 5 thousand, more pro players in nrl, sl, and France. If the national economy improves so will the game, the aussies government have huge input in this comp.
The key: if Marcus bai, stanley gene, john wilshire, mark azuire, paul aiton are on the field can push top teams, however lack of regular exposure to playing top teams a problem.
World cup: will be there about however the pro exposure both Wales & France have will push them into somewhere midfield.
The rlef teams
Wales
Big growth over last five years the summer conference now ten team, have a semi pro nl2 team Celtic and have record junior teams crusaders super league in 3 years is the plan, will base national team around Cunningham, briers and other pro players along with crusaders players.
The key: if Harris, Cunningham and briers fire they can trouble anyone a very dangerous team with possible union inclusions.
World cup: a real dark horse if Celtic climb the ladder and Harris and co play.
Ireland
For a country that had no league comp 5 years ago now have 14 team comp, junior development and a fan base of some
Sort should be the plans remember only around 500 attended there last couple of euro cup ties.
The key: if Carney is fit he will play in centres, and young de chaeau from Celtic these will be the two to lead the team, along with heritage players can be troublesome.
World cup: will have to get past Russia, Scotland and Lebanon to qualify I would imagine.
Scotland
Huge junior numbers the most outside, England near enough anyway. But the senior comp is faltering, they need to work toward a nil entry at the moment only 6 team comp. National team will be strong enough will several homegrown stars in nl system along with heritage, have strong home support with about 2000 turning out for some euro cup matches.
The key: need all players on board for qualifying, can be of nuisance value however wont get past these teams eg France, png, Ireland.
World cup: will fight it out with Lebanon, Ireland and Russia for euro spots.
Russia
The once huge hope has faded, but only a little, most of us now the dynamo boss took his team to rugby the rest is history he was responsible for the nz tour, victory cup successes, and Russias only challenge cup success, along with this he brought bob bailey to country. This said dynamo have returned in a form this year, and another rugby team has switched back they still held the junior world cup last year and are heavily gov backed with coke also.
The strangle hold locomotiv have on game is a problem, as there development has dropped a little.
Big junior numbers and 12 team comp.
The key: winning euro b qualifiers, then a upset win over Ireland and either Scotland or Lebanon to get through need big home support.
World cup: need star kirl kourmine the star to return for any chance to qualify, need big home support, likely to miss out though repacharge Europe.
Lebanon
Growing presence in home, have small 5 team comp, hold annual med cup. No junior develop as yet rely heavily on experienced heritage players in Australia. A good chance to get through.
The key: getting heritage players to play qualifiers if some dont play will struggle, as homegrown players not up to it yet.
Farah & el mazeri playing the key.
World cup: will battle it out with Ireland, Scotland, and Russia for euro spots.
Georgia
Have strong rugby union history, as yet no comp, but must be coming soon under rlif guidelines, had memorable international debut with crowds of around 10 thousand turning out for matches vs Serbia & Russia. Big future if committed.
The key: if star rugby union players make themselves available could win euro b.
World cup: will most likely drop out in euro b division, have strong future.
Serbia
Strong junior development of late, have had trouble getting recognized but finally got there, rugby union is a pest in this country. At moment have 6 team comp, limited resources, but the key they play the game. Involved in euro b cup & the med cup as well.
The key: keep at it sure will sustain heavy losses but must keep at it, stick it up those union people, juniors is the key and it is continuing to happen. Juniors is where the stars will come from.
World cup: wont make it but must stick at it, that is the key.
Morocco
The rlef site reported that there is increased interest in morocco, several unofficial comps running. Rely heavily particularly on Moroccan heritage in Marseille eg Khatabbi brothers. A unknown factor.
The key: to have all heritage players on board, this will give them some chance.
Word cup: qualify through med cup but very unlikely.
Holland
Really have a go at establishing game have had problems getting funding & recognition from Dutch gov.
The season is the snowballing nines in Europe, the Rotterdam nines. Have several union int. in side at present.
The key: for the long-term of the game junior development as union has been very against league so it will be much harder to get senior players.
World cup: will try to qualify through euro b however Russia raging favorites.
Germany
A real positive, have already 4 clubs established. Part of the nines circuit, have potential at present union clubs all for it no opposition.
The key: junior development and government funding.
World cup: realistically wont look to qualify will look to establishing more clubs, and playing in nines circuit.
Estonia
A dual code organisation, have already played a match vs British army. I believe will be a stayer.
Looking to play in nines circuit as well.
The key: establishing a regular comp so players get used to play of league.
World cup: are not plans to qualify as yet.
Austria
Little is know as yet, will take part in nines in Germany.
The key: establishing a regular comp so players get used to play of league
World cup: are not plans to qualify as yet.
Lithuania
Little is know as yet, will take part in nines in Germany.
The key: establishing a regular comp so players get used to play of league
World cup: are not plans to qualify as yet.
Greece
Domestic comp this year, pulled out of wc qualifying, a positive move.
The key: get the game know to Greeks in Greece.
World cup:pulled out of qualifying.
Italy
Have finally made genuine attempt to establish game in Italy, with nines comp in Italy. For too long has stayed in
Australia.
The key: Getting game established in Italy with some form of play
World cup: will more than likely pull out of wc qualifying.
Malta
Played first game on Maltese soil last year, are Australian based at present. Are working ferviously to try & est. comp.
The key: est. comp in Malta otherwise world cup dream is over.
World cup: racing clock to get game est. in Malta so they can qualify.
Portugal
Non genuine attempt it looks at present.
Pacific teams
Tonga
Have at strong comp in divisions, and strong juniors. On a high after pacific cup win. Have to have right mix of pro players
And domestic players must reward strong domestic players.
The key: if the likes of brent kite, kafusi(antonio, mal, jackson), fui fui moi moi, tyrone smith, fifa moala are available for qualifying will be very hard to stop.
World cup: dogfight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots.
Fiji
A big improver in pacific, a evergrowing comp, strong juniors. Made pacific cup final.
The key: naquima, tadulala and maybe cirvonaceva must be avalable for qualifying along with pro players overseas.
World cup: dog fight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots
Samoa
Have reestablished comp, however will rely on players that miss kiwi team and rugby union players.
The key: have the likes of Willie poaching and others to be available for world cup.
World cup: dogfight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots.
Cooks
Huge love for league this small island, have a big chance to qualify.
The key: get the like of the ford bros, cannings to play qualifying matches.
World cup: dog fight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots.
New cal
Game played to some degree, very unlikely will take part in qualifying.
Atlantic division
South Africa
A unknown quantity have strong juniors, have a 14 team comp at present, huge potential. However in country obsessed with union it will always be overshadowed.
The key: get everyone possble available including bloem & youngsters playing in English lower leagues, they are a real shot with these guys.
World cup: will qualify in Atlantic, with Jamaica, Argentina, use and Japan. Big chance to win however unlikely that this comp will be auto qualifier.
Singapore
A joke not real.
Japan
Real battlers of the game have 8 team comp at present strong junior presence. Will get smashed once again in qualifiers.
The key: get young players playing in syd uni system to play in qualifiers to be competitive.
World cup: wont make it but the key is they are there.
Use
Huge improvement in this comp 11 teams and expanding every year, with Chicago and Arizona interested as well.
Need to get juniors through, I see a semi pro comp on the horizon?
The key: get matty peterson, brendan costin to play and have strongest yanks on the field we seen in the match vs aussies how competitive they are full strength.
World cup: out of them and south africa in qualifying through Atlantic. However the winner will likely run into a Europe or pacific loser.
Canada
Very quite of late, alll reports suggest want to qualfy for wc, very unlikely to make impact.
The key: getting a team in the amnrl or and restarting comp.
World cup: will be cannon fodder for USA & south africa, unless heritage and union players get involved.
Jamaica
A real success story, 6 team comp with more to come juniors, sponsors. A big connection with Britain.
The key: what Jamaican heritage stars put there hand up potentially you could have waine pryce, darren fleary,
Gareth raynor, mark calderwood obviously leon would be England. It is a matter of who would fly over for qualifying
And which clubs would release.
World cup: will find it hard to get past south africans and usa, but could surprise it all depends on above.
Argentina
Very little has been reported since aussie army toured, from a small report they are having 4 team comp at present running. Again potential but all about dollars again. Not sure if they have any gov support.
The key: if they can even get some local provincial players rugby union that is it would make it interesting.
Realistically up against it.
World cup: a win over Canada or Japan would satisfy them.
My views are my only, I have made assumptions on wc qualifying but I would find it surprising if Atlantic had auto qualifier.
Overall positives: The junior world cup in Russia(even though many teams did not show), the university world cup, Frances euro cup victory, Catalan in super league, Celtic crusaders in nl2, USA Ireland continued expansion, the work of the rlef in expanding in Europe and Australia finally losing a series.
Negatives: nrl & superleague running game restricts game worldwide, and unions interference.
The automatic qualifiers
Australia
The superpower of the game, countless stars, huge media exposure the game moving ahead very year.
Need more support for world cup in 2008.
The key:if the aussies are going forward, and mini and lockyer given room no one gets near aussies, however can be knocked over by overconfidence and not playing percentages.
World cup: certain favorites at home.
England
Game going good over there big media exposure and strong juniors, however the national team struggles to beat the two other powers nz & aussies, they have trouble settling on halves must look to maguire and pyrce in halves. Seem to get into habit of matching opposition style of play and then being outsmarted.
The key: fieldon, peacock and sculthorpe if these men play they are a big chance to win.
World cup: semi finalist cannot see them get past nz or aussies, without confident halves.
New Zealand
Huge number of kiwis in aussie system about every nrl team outside warriors has 2 to 3 nz players average in system, the bartercard is a good breading ground + the players in superleague, the juniors regularly beat the Aussies and won both the tri series and university world cup. Need another nrl team in the next 10 years, the test team biggest problem what combinations huge potential need to be disciplined.
The key: if stacey, benji and sbw play on field at same time will really be a big force, along with blokes like ali and solomona will be hard to stop in any match.
The world cup: finalist and if aussies are a little underprepared can win.
France
A lot of confidence after euro cup win and very credible performances vs nz, eng & aussies, catalan exposing french players to superleague, along with more media exposure will see more stars arrive, rugby interference there biggest worry, huge optimism.
The key: the best side is picked in the national team. Gresque and rinaldi need to play in halves, fakir is the star and the key if he stars in this world cup he will play in the nrl, if these three perform to there best France are up there with the best teams.
World cup: definite semi final chance, need best players on park to get there however.
PNG
A lot of change in png of the last 2 years all for the good, the sp cup huge success, big crowd averages around 5 thousand, more pro players in nrl, sl, and France. If the national economy improves so will the game, the aussies government have huge input in this comp.
The key: if Marcus bai, stanley gene, john wilshire, mark azuire, paul aiton are on the field can push top teams, however lack of regular exposure to playing top teams a problem.
World cup: will be there about however the pro exposure both Wales & France have will push them into somewhere midfield.
The rlef teams
Wales
Big growth over last five years the summer conference now ten team, have a semi pro nl2 team Celtic and have record junior teams crusaders super league in 3 years is the plan, will base national team around Cunningham, briers and other pro players along with crusaders players.
The key: if Harris, Cunningham and briers fire they can trouble anyone a very dangerous team with possible union inclusions.
World cup: a real dark horse if Celtic climb the ladder and Harris and co play.
Ireland
For a country that had no league comp 5 years ago now have 14 team comp, junior development and a fan base of some
Sort should be the plans remember only around 500 attended there last couple of euro cup ties.
The key: if Carney is fit he will play in centres, and young de chaeau from Celtic these will be the two to lead the team, along with heritage players can be troublesome.
World cup: will have to get past Russia, Scotland and Lebanon to qualify I would imagine.
Scotland
Huge junior numbers the most outside, England near enough anyway. But the senior comp is faltering, they need to work toward a nil entry at the moment only 6 team comp. National team will be strong enough will several homegrown stars in nl system along with heritage, have strong home support with about 2000 turning out for some euro cup matches.
The key: need all players on board for qualifying, can be of nuisance value however wont get past these teams eg France, png, Ireland.
World cup: will fight it out with Lebanon, Ireland and Russia for euro spots.
Russia
The once huge hope has faded, but only a little, most of us now the dynamo boss took his team to rugby the rest is history he was responsible for the nz tour, victory cup successes, and Russias only challenge cup success, along with this he brought bob bailey to country. This said dynamo have returned in a form this year, and another rugby team has switched back they still held the junior world cup last year and are heavily gov backed with coke also.
The strangle hold locomotiv have on game is a problem, as there development has dropped a little.
Big junior numbers and 12 team comp.
The key: winning euro b qualifiers, then a upset win over Ireland and either Scotland or Lebanon to get through need big home support.
World cup: need star kirl kourmine the star to return for any chance to qualify, need big home support, likely to miss out though repacharge Europe.
Lebanon
Growing presence in home, have small 5 team comp, hold annual med cup. No junior develop as yet rely heavily on experienced heritage players in Australia. A good chance to get through.
The key: getting heritage players to play qualifiers if some dont play will struggle, as homegrown players not up to it yet.
Farah & el mazeri playing the key.
World cup: will battle it out with Ireland, Scotland, and Russia for euro spots.
Georgia
Have strong rugby union history, as yet no comp, but must be coming soon under rlif guidelines, had memorable international debut with crowds of around 10 thousand turning out for matches vs Serbia & Russia. Big future if committed.
The key: if star rugby union players make themselves available could win euro b.
World cup: will most likely drop out in euro b division, have strong future.
Serbia
Strong junior development of late, have had trouble getting recognized but finally got there, rugby union is a pest in this country. At moment have 6 team comp, limited resources, but the key they play the game. Involved in euro b cup & the med cup as well.
The key: keep at it sure will sustain heavy losses but must keep at it, stick it up those union people, juniors is the key and it is continuing to happen. Juniors is where the stars will come from.
World cup: wont make it but must stick at it, that is the key.
Morocco
The rlef site reported that there is increased interest in morocco, several unofficial comps running. Rely heavily particularly on Moroccan heritage in Marseille eg Khatabbi brothers. A unknown factor.
The key: to have all heritage players on board, this will give them some chance.
Word cup: qualify through med cup but very unlikely.
Holland
Really have a go at establishing game have had problems getting funding & recognition from Dutch gov.
The season is the snowballing nines in Europe, the Rotterdam nines. Have several union int. in side at present.
The key: for the long-term of the game junior development as union has been very against league so it will be much harder to get senior players.
World cup: will try to qualify through euro b however Russia raging favorites.
Germany
A real positive, have already 4 clubs established. Part of the nines circuit, have potential at present union clubs all for it no opposition.
The key: junior development and government funding.
World cup: realistically wont look to qualify will look to establishing more clubs, and playing in nines circuit.
Estonia
A dual code organisation, have already played a match vs British army. I believe will be a stayer.
Looking to play in nines circuit as well.
The key: establishing a regular comp so players get used to play of league.
World cup: are not plans to qualify as yet.
Austria
Little is know as yet, will take part in nines in Germany.
The key: establishing a regular comp so players get used to play of league
World cup: are not plans to qualify as yet.
Lithuania
Little is know as yet, will take part in nines in Germany.
The key: establishing a regular comp so players get used to play of league
World cup: are not plans to qualify as yet.
Greece
Domestic comp this year, pulled out of wc qualifying, a positive move.
The key: get the game know to Greeks in Greece.
World cup:pulled out of qualifying.
Italy
Have finally made genuine attempt to establish game in Italy, with nines comp in Italy. For too long has stayed in
Australia.
The key: Getting game established in Italy with some form of play
World cup: will more than likely pull out of wc qualifying.
Malta
Played first game on Maltese soil last year, are Australian based at present. Are working ferviously to try & est. comp.
The key: est. comp in Malta otherwise world cup dream is over.
World cup: racing clock to get game est. in Malta so they can qualify.
Portugal
Non genuine attempt it looks at present.
Pacific teams
Tonga
Have at strong comp in divisions, and strong juniors. On a high after pacific cup win. Have to have right mix of pro players
And domestic players must reward strong domestic players.
The key: if the likes of brent kite, kafusi(antonio, mal, jackson), fui fui moi moi, tyrone smith, fifa moala are available for qualifying will be very hard to stop.
World cup: dogfight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots.
Fiji
A big improver in pacific, a evergrowing comp, strong juniors. Made pacific cup final.
The key: naquima, tadulala and maybe cirvonaceva must be avalable for qualifying along with pro players overseas.
World cup: dog fight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots
Samoa
Have reestablished comp, however will rely on players that miss kiwi team and rugby union players.
The key: have the likes of Willie poaching and others to be available for world cup.
World cup: dogfight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots.
Cooks
Huge love for league this small island, have a big chance to qualify.
The key: get the like of the ford bros, cannings to play qualifying matches.
World cup: dog fight with Fiji, Samoa and cooks for spots.
New cal
Game played to some degree, very unlikely will take part in qualifying.
Atlantic division
South Africa
A unknown quantity have strong juniors, have a 14 team comp at present, huge potential. However in country obsessed with union it will always be overshadowed.
The key: get everyone possble available including bloem & youngsters playing in English lower leagues, they are a real shot with these guys.
World cup: will qualify in Atlantic, with Jamaica, Argentina, use and Japan. Big chance to win however unlikely that this comp will be auto qualifier.
Singapore
A joke not real.
Japan
Real battlers of the game have 8 team comp at present strong junior presence. Will get smashed once again in qualifiers.
The key: get young players playing in syd uni system to play in qualifiers to be competitive.
World cup: wont make it but the key is they are there.
Use
Huge improvement in this comp 11 teams and expanding every year, with Chicago and Arizona interested as well.
Need to get juniors through, I see a semi pro comp on the horizon?
The key: get matty peterson, brendan costin to play and have strongest yanks on the field we seen in the match vs aussies how competitive they are full strength.
World cup: out of them and south africa in qualifying through Atlantic. However the winner will likely run into a Europe or pacific loser.
Canada
Very quite of late, alll reports suggest want to qualfy for wc, very unlikely to make impact.
The key: getting a team in the amnrl or and restarting comp.
World cup: will be cannon fodder for USA & south africa, unless heritage and union players get involved.
Jamaica
A real success story, 6 team comp with more to come juniors, sponsors. A big connection with Britain.
The key: what Jamaican heritage stars put there hand up potentially you could have waine pryce, darren fleary,
Gareth raynor, mark calderwood obviously leon would be England. It is a matter of who would fly over for qualifying
And which clubs would release.
World cup: will find it hard to get past south africans and usa, but could surprise it all depends on above.
Argentina
Very little has been reported since aussie army toured, from a small report they are having 4 team comp at present running. Again potential but all about dollars again. Not sure if they have any gov support.
The key: if they can even get some local provincial players rugby union that is it would make it interesting.
Realistically up against it.
World cup: a win over Canada or Japan would satisfy them.
My views are my only, I have made assumptions on wc qualifying but I would find it surprising if Atlantic had auto qualifier.
