I think there are two distinct questions here. Firstly, when can we declare the Storm are here for good; and secondly, when can we declare that Rugby League has made it in Melbourne.
In my opinion the Storm have already confirmed their place in the competition or have done so at least as much as any club. Whether it be News Ltd, a Leagues club or a private millionaire, every club's tenure in the competition is only as secure as the capacity/interest of their financial backer to keep funding them. If Cronulla Leagues Club strikes hard times and can no longer pay the shortfall in the football club then the Sharks are in trouble. If Max Delmege loses interest and pulls out of Manly then the Sea Eagles are in trouble. And both the local Leagues Club and the private millionaire are significantly more susceptible to the way the wind blows from one year to the next than a billion dollar multi-national. There is little doubt about News Ltd's capacity to keep funding the Storm, the only questions are their interest and whether anyone else would consider stepping in if News Ltd ever pull out.
The Storm have two major advantages over every other team in the comp. They are based in Melbourne - Australia's second biggest city (by some distance). And they have a monopoly on selling the product of Rugby League to that city. That alone makes them an attractive *long term* investment for any number of corporate and private businesses. For News Ltd specifically a presence in Melbourne translates to increased subscribers to their Foxtel/Fox Sports investments, increased corporate sponsorship for their NRL Partnership investment and perhaps even increased sales of their Herald-Sun newspaper investment. If a presence in both of Australia's financial heartlands means' that Telstra pays a couple of million more to sponsor the premiership and AAMI pay more to sponsor the ref's and Bundy Rum pays more to sponsor MNF etc then that's all money that balances the costs of running the Storm. If the presence of the Storm adds 10,000 subscribers for Foxtel in Melbourne (or about $12m per year) then that's profit that balances the costs of running the Storm The reality is it almost doesn't matter how much red ink the Storm runs up. In comparison to the benefits to their other significantly larger investments, it's pocket money for a company like News Ltd. Ten years on, the Storm are here to stay.
The second question, when will Rugby League have made it in Melbourne, is completely in the eye of the beholder. In my opinion, Rugby League will not have made it in Melbourne until we have two NRL teams based in the city, each drawing average crowds around 20,000 per game or higher and we have equal or near equal free to air television coverage with average ratings at least equal to Brisbane (a smaller city). This may seem a huge ask and it is quite a few decades away at the earliest but only when we reach that point can we claim to be anything but a fringe interest in a city as big as Melbourne. It doesn't mean we won't still live in the shadow of the AFL but only then will we have a place in the entire city's heart and consciousness in our right. That's the sort of thing that takes generations to achieve but just as importantly it's the sort of thing that takes generations to undo. *That's* when RL will have made it. Until that day we must remain vigilant in pushing the game and stubbornly holding onto our beachhead in the southern capital. The long term rewards for Rugby League of the situation I've just described are more than worth the effort and expense. But until the above situation is achieved any retreat or resting on our laurels could see decades of pain and tens (even hundreds) of millions of dollars of investment go to waste in mere months.
Leigh.
