Wildcats for the drop in '06

[kevin crouthers]

Agreed, but until there is a level salary cap field the big four clubs will always be able to easily entice players away from the clubs you mention.

and now warrington are a happy alternative to the big 4 as well

 

[Evil Homer]

Are you the real Kevin Crouthers?

 

[RLdan]

i dont think they will go down, cas and salford will struggle aswell but i do think it will be rather close for comfort down near the bottom

 

[Weasels Ripped My Flesh]

The way they're recruiting at the moment, Cas look like certanties for the drop in 06'...which is sad.

 

[terracesider]

Yes, WRMF. Strange goings on. It's as though the Cas board's priority is to keep the wage bill as low as possible.

 

[MrCharisma]

I have a feeling that we're going to see a a bouncing competition between Leigh and Castleford.

(2004) Leigh promote and Castleford relegate
(2005) Leigh relegate and Castleford promote
(2006) Leigh promote and Castleford relegate

.......

Wakie are alright, they have some decent players in there like Korkidas and Solomona

 

[obelix]

Don't be too sure about Leigh coming straight back up. The one thing that keeping SL to 12 teams whilst bringing in Les Catalans has in its favour is that next season's NL1 is looking more competitive than ever. Hull KR, Widnes, Leigh, Whitehaven and possibly Halifax are all realistic contenders for promotion.

But back to the topic - I think Wakefield are starting to panic about 2009, when automatic promotion and relegation will be ended. I get the impression the RFL aren't going to be too keen to have both them and Castleford in the top flight, and Richard Lewis has stated publicly that he thinks Cas are a Super League level club.

This is why they're currently making a big push for a new ground, and trying to build quickly on their success of 2 years ago by thinking more short term than long term academy development - one of the ironies of introducing a system which should allow clubs to make long term investments is that it's currently encouraging short term spending.

Amongst the RL fans of all clubs I talk to, there's quite a bit of goodwill for Wakefield which is disproportionate to the amount they bring to the game. (I include myself in that too). I just don't think that the RFL will be that forgiving come franchise time.

 

[MrCharisma]

I like Wakefield, I think they really have something to build on... they just need to be committed.

Obelix, could you tell me a little more about 2009 cut of auto promotion. What is coming into play? I really haven't heard anything about this...

 

[bartman]

Planned changes were announced in May. It's bit complex and at the same time lacking in specific detail? Here's a link to a quick summary:
http://www.sportinglife.com/story_get.dor?STORY_NAME=rleague/05/05/18/manual_201622.html

 

[MrCharisma]

thanks Bartman, I'll read that now

 

[Lowey3]

Kick them out, not an asset to the SL.

That's rich comming from a fooking Salford fan.

Your club are the disgrace to super league.

Jeez i hate Salford fans, they take the Mickey out of other teams because their chairman has promised they wll be the best team in 2020.... when finally Minnichello and Gower will sign on the dotted line, aged 40.

You bum!!

 

[WJ]

That's rich comming from a fooking Salford fan.

Your club are the disgrace to super league.

Jeez i hate Salford fans, they take the Mickey out of other teams because their chairman has promised they wll be the best team in 2020.... when finally Minnichello and Gower will sign on the dotted line, aged 40.

You bum!!

Thats rich coming from a saints fan. Most successful team and you have a crao ground with no fans and no juniors.

YOU ARE A PATHETIC CLUB.

 

[obelix]

I like Wakefield, I think they really have something to build on... they just need to be committed.

Obelix, could you tell me a little more about 2009 cut of auto promotion. What is coming into play? I really haven't heard anything about this...

The Sporting Life article covers most of the information out in the public domain.

The basic proposal - and judging by Lewis' tone on the Boots n' All programme which featured him - is that the 14 team league and granting of three year franchising will be a reality by 2009. This would make 2008 a transition season with clubs finding out at various points whether they were in the 2009 SL or not. All this really represents is a levelling of the playing field - Les Catalans have a three season immunity from relegation anyway so the first time they could be relegated would be 2009 unless the new system was introduced.

With no automatic p&r, all teams effectively become franchises and there is no such immunity - being in the SL is judged on business plans as well as on-field performance. Given Lewis' stated desire for a second London team, a South Wales team and a second French team, SL 2009 already looks something like this (in my opinion!):

Definites

Bradford
Leeds
Wigan
St Helens
Hull
Warrington
London 1 (Harlequins)
London 2 (possibly London Skolars, an NL2 club who play in front of crowds of 350-1000 and have just appointed a full time coach for the first time)
South Wales (Celtic Crusaders if all goes well - they start life in NL2 in 2006. If all doesn't go well, there is no other team currently in a position to fulfil the need for a South Wales team so it would leave 4 places free (see below)
France 1 (Les Catalans)
France 2 (Most likely suggestion is Toulouse)

Leaving just 3 places...

Probables

Castleford (if you take Richard Lewis' assertion on Boots n All that they are a Super League club at face value)
Salford (but only if their crowds grow as expected when the new stadium arrives - which it should if they get the marketing right)

Which leaves 1 place (2 depending on South Wales), from which you have to pick:

Widnes
Hull KR
Cumbrian team (Whitehaven on current form, possibly Workington)
Wakefield
Leigh
York (if their rise continues)
Halifax
and the great unknown - anyone else who can put together a convincing business plan or proposal. (For example, Doncaster Lakers may benefit from a new ground and plans to go full time in the near future; and whilst a link up between Gateshead Thunder and Newcastle Falcons RUFC has been knocked back for the time being it proves that there is dialogue between the two clubs which could eventually result in a North Eastern dual club setup. Neither are in what would be called "traditional" areas)

So given all of that, I think Cas and Wakefield know that it's pretty much either/or for them rather than both (due to their location) - which it why Wakey are now panicking about getting a new ground in time. If they don't, they're a non-starter as it currently doesn't really meet Super League criteria anyway...

 

[terracesider]

Remember this is the RFL were talking about. They're just as likely to decide something else next year.

[quote="obelsik" ]Amongst the RL fans of all clubs I talk to, there's quite a bit of goodwill for Wakefield which is disproportionate to the amount they bring to the game. (I include myself in that too). I just don't think that the RFL will be that forgiving come franchise time.
[/quote]

Proably the case, but I've never seen the logic in the argument that Cas are better for SL that Wakey.Just what have Cas got to offer that Wakey hasn't?

 

[bartman]

Which leaves 1 place (2 depending on South Wales), from which you have to pick:

Don't forget old Huddersfield in the mix ;-)

Good analysis. There certainly will be some change in coming years.

 

[Evil Homer]

The Sporting Life article covers most of the information out in the public domain.

The basic proposal - and judging by Lewis' tone on the Boots n' All programme which featured him - is that the 14 team league and granting of three year franchising will be a reality by 2009. This would make 2008 a transition season with clubs finding out at various points whether they were in the 2009 SL or not. All this really represents is a levelling of the playing field - Les Catalans have a three season immunity from relegation anyway so the first time they could be relegated would be 2009 unless the new system was introduced.

With no automatic p&r, all teams effectively become franchises and there is no such immunity - being in the SL is judged on business plans as well as on-field performance. Given Lewis' stated desire for a second London team, a South Wales team and a second French team, SL 2009 already looks something like this (in my opinion!):

Definites

Bradford
Leeds
Wigan
St Helens
Hull
Warrington
London 1 (Harlequins)
London 2 (possibly London Skolars, an NL2 club who play in front of crowds of 350-1000 and have just appointed a full time coach for the first time)
South Wales (Celtic Crusaders if all goes well - they start life in NL2 in 2006. If all doesn't go well, there is no other team currently in a position to fulfil the need for a South Wales team so it would leave 4 places free (see below)
France 1 (Les Catalans)
France 2 (Most likely suggestion is Toulouse)

Leaving just 3 places...

Probables

Castleford (if you take Richard Lewis' assertion on Boots n All that they are a Super League club at face value)
Salford (but only if their crowds grow as expected when the new stadium arrives - which it should if they get the marketing right)

Which leaves 1 place (2 depending on South Wales), from which you have to pick:

Widnes
Hull KR
Cumbrian team (Whitehaven on current form, possibly Workington)
Wakefield
Leigh
York (if their rise continues)
Halifax
and the great unknown - anyone else who can put together a convincing business plan or proposal. (For example, Doncaster Lakers may benefit from a new ground and plans to go full time in the near future; and whilst a link up between Gateshead Thunder and Newcastle Falcons RUFC has been knocked back for the time being it proves that there is dialogue between the two clubs which could eventually result in a North Eastern dual club setup. Neither are in what would be called "traditional" areas)

So given all of that, I think Cas and Wakefield know that it's pretty much either/or for them rather than both (due to their location) - which it why Wakey are now panicking about getting a new ground in time. If they don't, they're a non-starter as it currently doesn't really meet Super League criteria anyway...

We can't(and hopefully won't) just draft teams into Super League on location and on-field status.Super League should stay as it is(albeit with no P&R) unless a team is not pulling its weight or another team has a viable claim into entering the league,sort of like the NRL is now.We can't just kick out lots of SL teams to be replaced with various clubs based on location.The above post in not as stupid as lots I've seen suggesting amatuer clubs and clubs that don't exist should be put in,but expansion is a slow process and until London Skolars,Celtic Crusaders or whoever are top of the lower divisions and professional enough for a SL franchise then no changes should be made to the comps.Certainly teams such as Huddersfield and Wakefield should not be kicked out for no apparent reason,to make way for teams based on location that don't currently exist in any SL standard form.

 

[terracesider]

Well said Homer.

If a new team wants to get into SL, good luck to them but let them start in NL2 and work their way there through promotion.

If you want to see the effect of franchising, look at the mess Welsh RU has got itself into by going down that road.

 

[Weasels Ripped My Flesh]

I know it sound odd from a Wakey fan, but if that kind of system does occour, i would be happy to see Wakey merge with Cas and Fev in order to keep competiting. It's one thing to have a great history, but without a future, you've got nothing.

 

[bartman]

I fear that Lewis already knows what he wants "at the end" of all this, hence the talk of opportunities in different regions, hoping to encourage clubs to get serious about forward planning and ambition?

I agree that if this can happen through promotion and relegation in the next few years, then it's better all round that turfing a club for a new (or old) franchise. And with two new expansion positions, it is possible for there not to be too much impact...

I seriously doubt a second London franchise will be ready for 2009, with the existing one only just having given itself a chance to proceed relatively debt-free. Maybe 2012 (the next thre-year phase) is more relaistic for that, on the back of the Olympic sporting facility infrastructure? So that leaves the two extra spots for a second French side and South Wales (unless Crusaders earn protion through the normal channels, in which case there's a spare spot to keep an existing/contender club afloat in the new system a bit longer).

So there's your fourteen for 2009, maybe minus one existing/contender team that fails to earn/keep promotion at the right time, but maybe not? This would be a less painful transition into their new expanded comp and three year review arrangements. But then I think the real pinch would come 3 years afterwards for 2012, when they would desperately be pressing to get any area/team into the top flite that had not made their way through usual processes before 2009 (eg Cumbrian club, 2nd London etc), and that's when teams located close together might miss out?

 

[Evil Homer]

Only if they're Leigh-standard or worse.No established team should be kicked out of the comp based on location,ever.If they're constantly struggling at the bottom then fair enough.