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Will we make the top 4?

Chipmunk

Coach
Messages
12,897
Definitely. It doesn't mean we're in the best four, just like we weren't in the four best teams last year. We were a top six team that snuck into the top four from luck and good coaching. Just like in 2017.
Good coaching or a good draw?

Only playing the other Top 6 team six times out of 20 games helps your cause.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,268
Good coaching or a good draw?

Only playing the other Top 6 team six times out of 20 games helps your cause.
Yeah well that's the luck I mentioned. But we beat Penrith and Melbourne, who both had significantly better teams than ours. We also beat Canberra. All up we won half our games against the other five top six teams.
 

Noise

Coach
Messages
13,932
Definitely. It doesn't mean we're in the best four, just like we weren't in the four best teams last year. We were a top six team that snuck into the top four from luck and good coaching. Just like in 2017.
Wouldn’t that make us about the same as last year?
 

hineyrulz

Post Whore
Messages
124,362
Wouldn’t that make us about the same as last year?
But but but we are a better team…….

Until it doesn’t suit the narrative and then the team isn’t good enough and only a chance if the top 4 through good cosching.

LOL!! We are the most under coached side in the comp.
 
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hindy111

Immortal
Messages
40,645
One of.pur bug advantages on run home is all games we have atleast an extra day off over opposition. Bar Cowboys game.
When we play the Panthers they would have a 5 day turn around. I do not see them playing a full strength side.

Manly can win out and finish on 36 points. There differential will end up better by end of season.
also.
That means we need to win 5/6 games to guarantee 4th.

Other possibilities are we beat Manly meaning they can only reach 34 points. In this case we need 4/6 wins. I'd say most likely scenarios are in order=

1. Storm beat Manly they win rest 36 points

2. Storm,Eels beat Manly win rest 34 points

3. Storm, Raiders beat Manly win rest 34 points

4 Storm,Raiders,Eels beat Manly win rest 32 points.

There are plenty of other scenarios.
But most likely would be Min 32 and Max 34 points for them.

Knocking off the Rooster this week makes it very hard for them to finish top 4. If we lose our top 4 chances are slim.

Based on having to reach 36 points( May not even be enough) We need 4/6.

Roosters,Cowboys,Panthers,Storm,Manly,South's

I think we certainly can beat Rooster,Cowboys and Panthers being they'll likely rest guys.
The next 3 games however shape our season.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,268
Wouldn’t that make us about the same as last year?
Our points differential is more than double what is was this time last year. I guess we need to wait and see what it's like at the end of the year, including finals, but we are more experienced than last year across the board. Mennings is a loss, but Papali'i is a big gain, and Mahoney is twice the player in attack compared to 2020.
 

Chipmunk

Coach
Messages
12,897
Yeah well that's the luck I mentioned. But we beat Penrith and Melbourne, who both had significantly better teams than ours. We also beat Canberra. All up we won half our games against the other five top six teams.
Not sure we beat a full strength Storm team. Perhaps that can also go in the luck column.
 

Chipmunk

Coach
Messages
12,897
Or did those teams not make top six because they had to play us?
I suspect some did and didn't make the Top 8 because of the amount of games against the Top 6 teams. Manly didn't because they didn't have Tommy Turbo. The rest given their seasons again this year weren't as good as the Top 6 sides
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,268
Not sure we beat a full strength Storm team. Perhaps that can also go in the luck column.
If you want to pick and choose individual games, I'd say our defence would've held up against Souths with our top 17 edge defenders and we hold our lead in that final. Teams have good and bad luck.
 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
21,306
I suspect some did and didn't make the Top 8 because of the amount of games against the Top 6 teams. Manly didn't because they didn't have Tommy Turbo. The rest given their seasons again this year weren't as good as the Top 6 sides
You have to assume in that many games, a team plays every other team at least once and given you can’t play yourself and if you’re in the top 6, the other 5 teams make up 31.25% of the comp. 6 games from 20 is 30% so really 6 games seems about right.
 

Noise

Coach
Messages
13,932
Our points differential is more than double what is was this time last year. I guess we need to wait and see what it's like at the end of the year, including finals, but we are more experienced than last year across the board. Mennings is a loss, but Papali'i is a big gain, and Mahoney is twice the player in attack compared to 2020.
So if at the end of the year we finish 5th or 6th and our points differential is similar to last year will you still be claiming we are a better team than last year?
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,268
So if at the end of the year we finish 5th or 6th and our points differential is similar to last year will you still be claiming we are a better team than last year?
Yes because we will have played better teams more often this year, duh.
 

TheParraboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
58,205
Our points differential is more than double what is was this time last year. I guess we need to wait and see what it's like at the end of the year, including finals, but we are more experienced than last year across the board. Mennings is a loss, but Papali'i is a big gain, and Mahoney is twice the player in attack compared to 2020.


yup 100% this experience needs to win us finals matches

We handed that finals game to Souths, due to many of our unforced errors (inexperience?)

But we also got to be careful not to shit the bed before we get there, as this experience we have should be able to get us wins against the top sides leading into the big games
 

King-Gutho94

Juniors
Messages
609
yup 100% this experience needs to win us finals matches

We handed that finals game to Souths, due to many of our unforced errors (inexperience?)

But we also got to be careful not to shit the bed before we get there, as this experience we have should be able to get us wins against the top sides leading into the big games

Well in the 5 finals we have lost under BA we have been in front at halftime in 3 of those losses and level with another after being up 12-0 after 30 mins

The 2019 SF where the game has been gone at halftime is the only one.

Other then that we have had our chances composure under pressure needs to improve no doubt
 

Bandwagon

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
30,274
Not sure we beat a full strength Storm team. Perhaps that can also go in the luck column.

We probably don't now. But I reckon that the Storm were weakened in that match is a bit overblown, They weren't really any weaker than they've been all season. Certainly their starting thirteen was at near full strength ( missing Finucane ) , and they were missing Grant, but he's been missing in a good deal of their games they've still won convincingly. And they had Papenhuyzen, who's also been a notable out for most their season.

If anything I reckon where we were lucky is that we got them early, and we started the season stronger than they did. A lot of which is probably down to adjusting to life without Smith.

Also I'd reckon picking a full strength Storm side now, would look a bit ( not a lot, but enough ) different to what you might have picked back then.
 
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Messages
4,245
Our heads exploded in that semi against Souths after Mitch missed the pg. We just couldn't mentally stay in it. The whole year caught up with us in that 2 mins.
 

strider

Post Whore
Messages
72,035
We probably don't now. But I reckon that the Storm were weakened in that match is a bit overblown, They weren't really any weaker than they've been all season. Certainly their starting thirteen was at near full strength ( missing Finucane ) , and they were missing Grant, but he's been missing in a good deal of their games they've still won convincingly. And they had Papenhuyzen, who's also been a notable out for most their season.

If anything I reckon where we were lucky is that we got them early, and we started the season stronger than they did. A lot of which is probably down to adjusting to life without Smith.

Also I'd reckon picking a full strength Storm side now, would look a bit ( not a lot, but enough ) different to what you might have picked back then.
Yeah timing of playing teams is a massive factor .... the early rounds are quite hit n miss as to which teams are up

And then you get random benefits like playing manly in the first 10 rounds or teams minus origin players
 

hindy111

Immortal
Messages
40,645
Yeah timing of playing teams is a massive factor .... the early rounds are quite hit n miss as to which teams are up

And then you get random benefits like playing manly in the first 10 rounds or teams minus origin players

Or playing sides when they are at most desperate and season is on the line.
Like our last 2 weeks.
 

Gazzamatta

First Grade
Messages
8,575
We are definitely capable of beating Easts tomorrow and although unlikely its a chance. Probably more challenging will be V The Bunnies. I think that will be a truer indicator of how our season will progress. Fergo back on the wing does not fill me with any defensive confidence.
 
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