Are the 2024 Warriors better than the 2023 Warriors? Can we go all the way?

[Izz]

Making the opposition start a set in their own 10 is great, but imo we also need to contest the kick if we're kicking from the opposition 40 or closer. I may be misremembering (I've tried to block out most of the last couple games haha) but it was only once we started doing that v Gold Coast that we came alive.

 

[Matua]

The actual weirdest thing about the game was that the Warriors advanced up the field so easy, especially when the Titans were out on their feet in the last 20. Then with a few metres to go they turned into dunces.

 

[Wheeled Warrior]

The actual weirdest thing about the game was that the Warriors advanced up the field so easy, especially when the Titans were out on their feet in the last 20. Then with a few metres to go they turned into dunces.

I'm concerned about our attack. Our defense has been poor in the past couple of games, and we look non-threatening in the opposition's 20-meter zone, which is more of a concern. I'm glad we have some experience back to clean up with Afoa/Capewell.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

The actual weirdest thing about the game was that the Warriors advanced up the field so easy, especially when the Titans were out on their feet in the last 20. Then with a few metres to go they turned into dunces.

Our ability to gain yardage isn’t a problem. We’re one of the best teams in the comp at field position- Clearyball/websterball works at that. Defence in our 20 is an obvious work-on that hopefully will be improved by returning players. It’s the ability to ice scoring opportunities when we get the opposition n their 20 that’s the worry.

 

[Beavers Headgear]

Was listening to SENZ just before the game today, they suggested 13/16 were needed to make the top 4 again

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Was listening to SENZ just before the game today, they suggested 13/16 were needed to make the top 4 again

Haha, top 4! Top 8 is a dream!

 

[JJ]

Let’s gone Warriors. All that Pinot Wah shit going to die pretty quickly I expect. Amazing how quickly they became’the thing’..

 

[nswarrior]

Amazing how quickly it’s fallen apart for us. Andrew John and some other commentators were calling us the dark horses for the season and we lose 3 in a row.

will be really hard to make the 8 now.

what happened? The only thing I can see is the Metcalf injury. We haven’t won a game since apart from Souths maybe

 

[Manu Vatuvei]

Losing Metcalf definitely hurts, however not really in terms of our overall structure - it's more that his support play through the middle is worth maybe 1 extra try per game which could've been the difference in close games. Even with Metcalf our attack went right most of the time and was clunky when we went left.

Metcalf being out has little to no significance to the effectiveness of our right side attack. Obviously he doesn't touch the ball when we go right, and he also tends to be of very little use in structured footy inside the 20 anyway. I don't think there's an excuse for that, I prefer to focus on our set plays getting stale, poor execution, and perhaps the loss of Curran/Niukore.

Injuries have definitely hurt us, but we've been coming up against teams with injury problems that are just as bad. All of our "core" players have been in the team - CNK, Johnson, Egan, AFB, Harris. Compare that to e.g. playing the Knights without Ponga. Injuries have hurt us but if they're enough to make us this bad, then the squad isn't resilient enough or doesn't have enough of a Plan B.

 

[LeagueNut]

This is a very long and interesting article with a heap of detailed statistical analysis - it basically says we shouldn't panic yet but things need to change very soon.

What's up with the Wahs? April NRL efficiency update - The Rugby League Eye Test

Another month has passed in NRL season 2024 and we’re going to have another league wide efficiency update after some team specific deep dives on the Eels and Bulldogs. This marks one third of the way through the season already and the trends we’re seeing are more substantiated. And one such...

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

 

[Big Marn]

This is a very long and interesting article with a heap of detailed statistical analysis - it basically says we shouldn't panic yet but things need to change very soon.

What's up with the Wahs? April NRL efficiency update - The Rugby League Eye Test

Another month has passed in NRL season 2024 and we’re going to have another league wide efficiency update after some team specific deep dives on the Eels and Bulldogs. This marks one third of the way through the season already and the trends we’re seeing are more substantiated. And one such...

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

lots of interesting stats in there. think it underlines what we have all been saying regarding the predictable attack.

 

[Rich102]

Really interesting Mr Nut.

In summary it says the Warriors have the right defensive and attacking structures in place but lack the players to score the vital points, whilst being too predictable.

Pretty much what most on here have been saying.

 

[Manu Vatuvei]

Those stats kinda say what I've been saying, which is that Webster is process-oriented to the point where he forgets about winning (scoring points, stopping points being scored).

Perhaps I need to rephrase that - he is "process oriented" when it comes to yardage sets and trying to dominate territory and possession. He is also obviously fairly process oriented when it comes to our limited array of attacking set plays. However, our processes around defending inside our 20 and attacking generally (aside from just hit-ups) suck.

The article also makes the interesting observation that completion rates are basically a useless meaningless stat which are more a measure of how conservatively you're playing than anything else.

These stats are why it worries me that Webster always focuses on "errors" and "making it hard for ourselves" post-match. The stats say we aren't making it hard for ourselves at all, in fact we're dominating the flow of the game and losing because we can't defend our line and we're throwing nothing at the opposition on attack. If he can't recognise that then that's a problem.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Geez, I could read that article 100x over. Wonderful analysis. Really exhibits that our 'processes' are good, but the goal of rugby league which is to win games by scoring points, and denying the other team of the same, is not.

Unfortunately, I can't see how that gets remedied. Our left-side attack is up to nothing. TMM is as vanilla as it comes in setting up his outsides, Roger is starved of decent ball and doesn't have much if any experience in running a line as a centre, and Montoya is a plodder. Metcalf has clearly been a much, much bigger loss than certainly I appreciated, or anyone else may have.

So teams can smother that right side attack. Smother SJ and give him limited time, put pressure on Berry, deny DWZ that corner, and really we're not up to much. We do score the odd try though the middle when AFB, Tohu etc punch through, but the stats show the good teams are scoring wider..and we're not.

The writer says we might not be far away, but I took it differently from those stats. We're dominating field position, but really it's hard to see where our points will come from. I can really see some fatigue setting in to our big guys - AFB is playing big minutes and is off to Cronulla next year, if we're starting to be on the brink of missing finals, is he going to keep fronting up each week? Barnett has taken on a huge load, and doesn't have that experience of doing that as a prop. The young guys aren't playing big minutes. Gee, I dunno...either we get our injured guys back and Webster gets it right as a coach, or I can see a world where the air really goes out of the tyres as we go on.

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Tyres are flat! It's running on the rims and we only have a space saver in the boot!

The last 3 games should have been wins, but 3 straight losses!
Based on that form the next 3 games are going to be losses (Roosters, Panthers, Dolphins).
If that the case 7 points out of potential 24.
After that 3 byes will give 6 points then remaining games have 24 potential points.
(Only 5 home games in the final 12 games)

A guess is 28 points to make the 8.
So 8 games from final 12 would need to be won to get 29 point.

Massive turn around needed.
The next 3 games either nail the coffin shut or give us a faint heart beat.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

We've been here before (maybe not as dire) with Ivan coached Warriors teams...I'm not going to count us out, but I might start to if we don't get a win or 2 from the next 3 games before the bye

Now that I look back, the SJ bomb to corners without contesting seems symptomatic of the way we're going about it. Looks good on a spreadsheet (opposition tackled in their own 20m) and field position, but it ignores the fact tries are scored when we actually 'chance our arm' and contest that ball.

 

[Rich102]

My thoughts are:
1. This should be a winning squad. The bulk came from last years very successful team. Plus RTS. The only real loss is Curran; for whatever reason Webster didn't rate him as highly as I do. He is going well for the Dogs and had stopping power as well as a knack for running into a gap. We could use him now. Add to this the coach has experience with the squad. They should be going better than they are.
2. Injuries. Last year we were relatively lucky. This year they have hit hard. Metcalf the main one, has turned the attack into a battering ram.
3. The coach. Last year he had a dream run. This year he is having to work and a few shortcomings are starting to show particularly around his bench selection and use. Don't know how much help his assistants are either. But when the team is in a slump it is the coach's job to lift them. Introduce something new. Bring a new player into the squad? How he handles this will ultimately determine how good he will be. Not a time for "The same old same old."
Webster has good processes in place now he has to demonstrate his motivational skills.

 

[Beavers Headgear]

Just listening to 6 tackles with Gus

Gould said they are missing Metcalf, but missing Johnson even more. Not training with the side during the week at all when the side is in a hole making it tough. Too hard to rest him now while the side is in a hole, earlier on may have been a good option. Expects them to strong a few together over the origin period and still make the 8

 

[Big Marn]

Last year may have been an outlier for this team based on the talent level. Compare to the Roosters, Broncos and Panthers squad and its not really close, yet we somehow made the top 4.

This year we seem to be regressing back to the mean and then some. This is quite common in sports where a team or player will have an exceptional year due to certain factors, but over time will revert back to their normal behaviour.
Is that what is happening here? I think the ultimate goal is to have "normal seasons" along the lines of the Storm where an exceptional season will bring a premiership every so often, but always in contention. Our "normal season" isnt anywhere near that level...yet.

I think a few people on here have commented that last year we managed to overcome high error/penalty counts last year with exceptional performances from the likes of SJ, AFB, and a host of others, plus a lowish injury toll . A perfect storm of players playing to their peak all in the one season. We had an amazing away record which is so un-Warriors.

Too early to tell whether this season cant be turned around but the signs are already there that it might be tough sledding. I do wonder how the team will improve in the long term if the local talent isnt up to scratch. A team wont be able to mix it with the big boys in this league if its dependent on free agents and expensive buys every year.

 

[Beavers Headgear]

Last year may have been an outlier for this team based on the talent level. Compare to the Roosters, Broncos and Panthers squad and its not really close, yet we somehow made the top 4.

This year we seem to be regressing back to the mean and then some. This is quite common in sports where a team or player will have an exceptional year due to certain factors, but over time will revert back to their normal behaviour.
Is that what is happening here? I think the ultimate goal is to have "normal seasons" along the lines of the Storm where an exceptional season will bring a premiership every so often, but always in contention. Our "normal season" isnt anywhere near that level...yet.

I think a few people on here have commented that last year we managed to overcome high error/penalty counts last year with exceptional performances from the likes of SJ, AFB, and a host of others, plus a lowish injury toll . A perfect storm of players playing to their peak all in the one season. We had an amazing away record which is so un-Warriors.

Too early to tell whether this season cant be turned around but the signs are already there that it might be tough sledding. I do wonder how the team will improve in the long term if the local talent isnt up to scratch. A team wont be able to mix it with the big boys in this league if it’s dependent on free agents and expensive buys every year.

Always thought the danger was can the majority of the squad back up career best form again, also had a very kind draw, decent run with injuries and maybe under the radar a bit last season

Fair few of those elements haven’t been as kind this year and teams have a bit more analysis and planning on their style etc

They aren’t a mile off the pace though