NSW should be favs. But our trump card is our halves. DCE and Thurston piss all over Hodko and Reynolds. If they can get a combination going NSW don't stand a chance.
Thurston already has a combo and it's with Inglis and the left-side.
The combo the halves have is predominantly passing it to each other on open side plays. The combo of a half these days is more with the #9, the edge forward and the centre & winger on their side of the field, rather than the other half.
So based on what's been going on with the toads, I see Hagan going with this.
FB - Slater
RW - Tate
RC - Hodges
LC - Inglis
LW - Boyd
RH - Cherry-Evans
LH - Thurston
AH - Smith
MF - Scott
MF - Myles
MF - Gillett
RF - Thaiday
LF - McQueen
IC - Lillyman
IC - Guerra
IC - T'eo
IC - Taylor
i.e., I don't think any of the players in doubt will miss it, apart from those already ruled out e.g., Parker & Papalii
Lillyman, Guerra, & possibly T'eo to work the middle in rotation with the starting 3. Taylor to be used on the edges.
The QLD middle 6 looks inferior to the NSW 6 of Gallen, Bird, Woods, Tamou, Watmough & Merrin, especially on rotation, but as we all know and has been proven many times in the past, the Maroon jersey can make superheros out of spuds.
Of course, with Thurston & DCE in the team, Hagan will no doubt have the same old game plan of getting the edge forwards outside them involved as much as possible either as decoys or recipients. Thaiday playing back in his usual right side in Game 2 last year and being put through holes by Cronk for 2 tries after playing Game 1 ineffectively in the middle is an example of this.
Likewise for NSW, Scott & Hoffman need Reynolds and Hodkinson to get them involved. Didn't happen in Game 1 as the halves were more concerned (or probably directed) to play solid games and not do too much. They may step up in this one and bring their edge forwards into the game. If they don't, then Scott & Hoffman will again be quiet in offence. These two don't read the play and anticipate Farah's actions like Lewis & Bird do who have a much better quick awareness on the field being former play makers themselves. Still, there are defensive combo's and familiarities to consider too which is why Daley probably stuck with Scott & Hoffman inside Reynolds & Hodkinson. Putting Lewis & Bird in #11 & #12 means starting that process all over again.
Based on settled squads and momentum, you'd think NSW have got this, but this sort of thinking in Origin normally leads to the opposite. Game 1 is an example.
