Analysing our Seasons Stats (thus far)

[TheRev]

I went searching for some stats, to see if some of my assumptions were true, this is what we have so far in 2014:

What it basically says:

• The Team that wins possession & run metres, generally goes on to win the match
• The 2 exceptions were Warrior (Round 2) & Storm where (ref blunder aside) we won both matches despite being soundly beaten in terms of possession but still held our own in points scored

My Thoughts:

• I suspect that the stat thats missing (which I cant find) is that we are playing the game more in our own half than the opposition is, and as a result we are initiating our tries further out than our opponents do (since they are on our try-line more often)
• I suspect its our defence thats keeping us in games where we really shouldnt be.. and I know this sounds ridiculous, but is there any chance its a deliberate tactic to back our goal-line defence, instead of using up energy mid-field being aggressive with our defensive line speed? Surely not, but if you recall last year it was the Roosters who deliberately gave up penalties and backed their D, so as not to minimise broken field play.

 

[Slippery Morris]

How about this stat so far. In 8 games which equate to 16 halves of footy, Saints have only won 6 (2 were in the first game against the Tigers who were on antibiotics and in quarantine the days before kickoff, the 1st half against the weak Sharks outfit and the other wins were against the Warriors). They have lost 9 halves 1 was against a weak Sharks side that held the Dragons scoreless in the 2nd half.

And Saints have had 1 draw.

In 2012 under this aging roster poor Pricey inherited they were 4th and conceded 130 pts by round 8. 2014 they are 9th in Rd 8 and have concede 182 pts. And beat the Roosters 28-24 on Anzac day.

 

[GT0007]

I went searching for some stats, to see if some of my assumptions were true, this is what we have so far in 2014:

What it basically says:

• The Team that wins possession & run metres, generally goes on to win the match
• The 2 exceptions were Warrior (Round 2) & Storm where (ref blunder aside) we won both matches despite being soundly beaten in terms of possession but still held our own in points scored

My Thoughts:

• I suspect that the stat thats missing (which I cant find) is that we are playing the game more in our own half than the opposition is, and as a result we are initiating our tries further out than our opponents do (since they are on our try-line more often)
• I suspect its our defence thats keeping us in games where we really shouldnt be.. and I know this sounds ridiculous, but is there any chance its a deliberate tactic to back our goal-line defence, instead of using up energy mid-field being aggressive with our defensive line speed? Surely not, but if you recall last year it was the Roosters who deliberately gave up penalties and backed their D, so as not to minimise broken field play.

Roosters did back their defence as we did in the Bennett era. The difference is now the game is faster and if a team gets a roll on they usually score points so you can't give away that much field position. I've been talking for weeks about our poor marker defense as we quite often get caught with one or 2 players laying on the ground with only 1 or sometimes no marker at all. This just gives the opposition a free hit with easy metres to march up field. Its clear we are not winning the wrestle and that needs to be addressed immediately. You may say we don't have any line speed and we drop off tackles which is true but that is symptoms of not winning the ruck. Our defense has improved and is not actually that bad especially on our try line which shows we can tackle. However no team can tackle or have line speed when your pedaling backwards and thats also when missed tackles will start happening.

 

[watatank]

[*]I suspect its our defence thats keeping us in games where we really shouldnt be.. and I know this sounds ridiculous, but is there any chance its a deliberate tactic to back our goal-line defence, instead of using up energy mid-field being aggressive with our defensive line speed? Surely not, but if you recall last year it was the Roosters who deliberately gave up penalties and backed their D, so as not to minimise broken field play.
[/LIST]

Why even bother comparing the Roosters with us? They are a good team, we are not. It's not a tactic and even if it was it's a stupid one. Defence in the middle of the field should be about either forcing a mistake or getting the ball back in a position where we can do something with it. Not playing the whole game in our half and defending our line until it breaks eventually.

You should also have a look at territory stats and times tackled in opposition 20 if you can find them

 

[DUB888]

How about this stat so far. In 8 games which equate to 16 halves of footy, Saints have only won 6 (2 were in the first game against the Tigers who were on antibiotics and in quarantine the days before kickoff, the 1st half against the weak Sharks outfit and the other wins were against the Warriors). They have lost 9 halves 1 was against a weak Sharks side that held the Dragons scoreless in the 2nd half.

And Saints have had 1 draw.

In 2012 under this aging roster poor Pricey inherited they were 4th and conceded 130 pts by round 8. 2014 they are 9th in Rd 8 and have concede 182 pts. And beat the Roosters 28-24 on Anzac day.

Thanks Slippery , I would add that in 2014 Price has the team he wants. He and his staff ARE NOT FIRST GRADE NRL and he needs to be shown the door NOW!

 

[Gomarchin]

I wonder what excuses Price will come up with to explain another poor year.

He can't use the ageing roster, or inheriting someone else's team.

When will the board/Doust wake up and realise this guy is an imposter? I don't care if he's a nice bloke and coached well in SG ball or whatever. He's not a first grade coach and we will never play finals with this guy at the helm.

Leave Steve.

 

[dino2170]

Splice dice

 

[Slippery Morris]

What makes me sick is there are still people that actually think Price can coach and should be given more time? Especially ones that control the club.

 

[Gomarchin]

Dragons 2009 - 2011 = benchmark footy team

Dragons 2012 - 2014 = below average first grade footy team

Dragons 2015?

 

[Dezziedc]

Roosters did back their defence as we did in the Bennett era. The difference is now the game is faster and if a team gets a roll on they usually score points so you can't give away that much field position. I've been talking for weeks about our poor marker defense as we quite often get caught with one or 2 players laying on the ground with only 1 or sometimes no marker at all. This just gives the opposition a free hit with easy metres to march up field. Its clear we are not winning the wrestle and that needs to be addressed immediately. You may say we don't have any line speed and we drop off tackles which is true but that is symptoms of not winning the ruck. Our defense has improved and is not actually that bad especially on our try line which shows we can tackle. However no team can tackle or have line speed when your pedaling backwards and thats also when missed tackles will start happening.

Exactly what I have been saying. Control the ruck and control the game. We controlled the ruck with the games we won. The games we haven't, the opposition dominated the ruck and therefore our forwards.

With the speed of the game today, you need to slow that play the ball down enough to give your defensive line time to set and come forward to meet the attack. We don't do that.

 

[dragonreddy]

I went searching for some stats, to see if some of my assumptions were true, this is what we have so far in 2014:

What it basically says:

• The Team that wins possession & run metres, generally goes on to win the match
• The 2 exceptions were Warrior (Round 2) & Storm where (ref blunder aside) we won both matches despite being soundly beaten in terms of possession but still held our own in points scored

My Thoughts:

• I suspect that the stat thats missing (which I cant find) is that we are playing the game more in our own half than the opposition is, and as a result we are initiating our tries further out than our opponents do (since they are on our try-line more often)
• I suspect its our defence thats keeping us in games where we really shouldnt be.. and I know this sounds ridiculous, but is there any chance its a deliberate tactic to back our goal-line defence, instead of using up energy mid-field being aggressive with our defensive line speed? Surely not, but if you recall last year it was the Roosters who deliberately gave up penalties and backed their D, so as not to minimise broken field play.

Mate its probably splitting hairs but the stats table you've got there has fridays score as 34-18 it was 34-14 so dont know how accurate the rest of it is .

 

[GT0007]

Exactly what I have been saying. Control the ruck and control the game. We controlled the ruck with the games we won. The games we haven't, the opposition dominated the ruck and therefore our forwards.

With the speed of the game today, you need to slow that play the ball down enough to give your defensive line time to set and come forward to meet the attack. We don't do that.

I think most of us are onboard with that NOW as its pretty obvious.....
The difficulty is we get pinged by the ref early in the game to the point of almost being out of it by half time by trying to slow the ruck down. The wrestle has to happen before the player hits the ground to make sure we are on top of the tackled player without allowing offloads which is another area we have been poor, so if we have a wrestling coach either get him in more often or if he has been then sack him for someone who understands how the game is refereed. Also by not allowing the player to go straight to ground you give your line more time to get set. You're right this is by far our No.1 problem and is the catalyst of many other issues in regard to not just defense but how we respond in attack and from the field postion we start our set. Albert oversees defense so he is accountable and as much as I loved him as a player, either he doesn't know what he's doing or the players aren't following instruction. We have 16 days to make changes in the way we do things and if we come out and play the same way I don't think there is any choice but to make changes with the coaching staff starting with Albert.

Sorry I do have to add that the refs 100% scrutinize us and certain other teams way more than the protected few. It's sometimes beyond a joke, and sometimes a difficult 50/50 call that always goes only one way. I've spent a lot of time going over this frame by frame this season and my opinion is the result of much scrutiny while being open minded. It certainly appears giving up home ground advantage probably hasn't helped us but that being said the game against the Bronco's didn't feel like or get refereed like a home game either. We must but on the refs tip sheets for all the wrong reasons