My Predictions:
Top 4
Brisbane: A settled squad with little in the way of squad turnover from last year. The reduction in interchange should suit there smaller more mobile forward pack. Hunt & Milford coping a 1 year ban from Origin should lead to a consistent spine being fielded during the rep period.
North QLD: The first club in decades to field their premiership winning 17 the following year. Thurston now has the support he needs in the spine, and they have learn't how to win away from home. Only question is can they handle teams aiming up against them every week?
Melbourne: The big 3 may be getting on in age, but the Storm squad from 2015 was one of the youngest Bellamy has ever coached. A rested Billy Slater will be of benefit. Their unwavering consistency will see them finish top 4.
New Zealand: Great recruitment for this year. Their squad seems really balanced. Finally seem to have there front office where it needs to be with Jim Doyle running the club. The only question now is the coach. By all accounts McFadden has less than 6 weeks to prove he is the man to guide the club to the finals. If the Warriors are to pull the trigger on a coaching change, one would hope it occurs within the first month so their entire season isn't overshadowed by speculation.
5th - 8th
Canterbury: Hasler is one of the best coaches in the business. They have a great skillful pack, a young talented halves combination, and speedy backs. The main question is how will huge forwards adapt to the reduction in the interchange. If they are healthy come the end of season they will be a threat.
Sydney City: A lot of talk about the talent they have lost (RTS, Maloney), however their pack is still one of the best in the comp, and if they give their rookie halves the space the should be a lot of fun to watch, if inconsistent at times. Robinson to prove if he deserves to mentioned alongside Bennet, Hasler and Bellamy this season.
Cronulla: Great recruitment in the halves for this season - Maloney may prove to be the buy of the season - hopefully the rest of the team will listen to him when he over-calls Gallen for the ball. Their forward pack is full of experience, if getting on in age, and they have some real talent in the backs in Holmes and Bird (and maybe Barba if he can return to form). I was tempted to place them top 4, but ultimately their coach, and the Shark's inherent ability to seize a loss from the jaws of victory has them placed 5th - 8th.
Canberra: Have some real size and depth in their pack. Sezer is a good signing and should compliment Austin in the halves, and Williams solid 3rd option when injury inevitably strikes. They lost a lot of games by a small margin last season, and have a soft draw, so I have them sneaking into the 8 despite their coach. Ricky will then be reward with an excessive contract extension that the club will be regretting within 12 months.
9th - 12th
Rabbitohs: They have lost a lot of depth in the past 12 months to sign Sam Burgess. Their backs lack punch with the exception of frequently injured Ingliss. A few injuries to the starting 13 will really test the clubs depth. With their halves off contract, and consistent rumors about unhappiness between the playing group and the coach/owner, I see the Rabbitohs missing 8 and beginning a rebuild in earnest.
Penrith: I feel for Cleary getting the boot after such an injury plagued year. Griffin however is not the solution. Expect safety first squad selections and game plans as he attempts to coach a squad he didn't assemble. They will take down some teams unexpectedly and lose to some that the should defeat comfortably. GRIFFIN BALL returns!
St. George Illawarrar: The Dragons overachieved last season. They won't defeat as many sides with their grinding style. Their spine isn't anything to get excited about, and their pack average. They have no real home ground advantage to speak of, splitting their games between 5(!) venues.
Manly: Solid recruitment, but with such a huge turnover in the playing group, and a new coach, will the side gel? Their pack isn't in the top 8, Stewart is injury prone, and questions remain over Dylan Walkers ability to partner DCE in the halves.
Bottom 4
Newcastle: Will be a tough season for Newcastle, but Brown is making all the right talk about developing for long term success - with his squad for round 1 proving he is willing to act. The true successes of this season will be measured by how the squad is developed for 2017 and beyond.
Gold Coast: See comments for Newcastle above. I feel for Neil Henry. He assembled a great squad at the Cowboys, and had it not been for some contentious decisions against them during the finals series his time there may have been remembered in a more favorable light. The rebuild begins in earnest this season, with the release of David Taylor a good first step. Sezer was a real loss.
Wests Tigers: A coach under fire and feuding with the veteran player. Constant turnover in the front office. No consistent home ground. Both halves off contract. The weakest 2nd row in the competition. Tedesco is really the only bright spot. Will be a long season for Tigers fans.
Parramatta: I don't get the pre-season hype. The Norman/Foran paring lacks an organizer and kicking ability, Gordon is a stop gap solution at fullback, and Beau Scott could easily turn into Watmough v2.0. Jennings is overhyped and lazy - no wonder he has been moved on before the end of his contract by both Gould/Cleary and Robinson. A bad start to the season will really ratchet up the pressure on the coach. They need to get the front office in order before they can begin a climb up the ladder.
