Whether you have 10 players or 1 player eligible... you're not really saving anymore. Its still only $200k extra on the cap to split between one or more players.
That doesnt make Whare better value the second one other player is eligible. The cap split evenly might work out to be an average of $330k. But that's not accurate when clubs have a few elite players, a bunch of above average players and tend to round their roster out with minimum wage players.
The money left over per player drops extremely quick once you have guys on big contracts. We have atleast 3 guys on them.
Maloney - $850k
Tamou - $750k
Merrin - $700k
If the media figures are accurate theres $2.3m per season in 3 players . Even if we drop it to $2.2m to increase the chance of it being accurate.
$9.4m - $2.2m = $7.2m.
$7.2m divided by remaining 27 players is $266k
Cleary if he re-signs will be earning around $800k per season too. Thats minimum what we will need to spend to keep him. Cartwright is $500k+. RCG will be looking at a payrise. Blake. Peachey. All these guys would be worth considerably more than the average. The more above average players you need to keep. The more minimum wage players you need to make it work.
We could be at a point where we need say 10 minimum wage players to keep our elite and above average players. The top 25 expanded to a top 30. Those 5 extra players will automatically be minimum wage. Most clubs already had probably 5 or so players on minimum wage in their top 25. Its not unrealistic that teams will need a quarter to a third of their cap on minimum wage players.
But for 5 years Whare is guaranteed to earn triple that. If hes shit he gets the good deal. If he gets another injury he gets the good deal. But if he recaptures form and is actually worth say $500k a season he will likely want us to increase his pay. He will become unhappy and want out.
A 5 year contract has very little upside for a club. Theres scenarios where it can be good. But theres a hell of a lot more ways it can go wrong. Especially on a player who has recently missed 2 seasons with knee injuries.
I hope it works out well for us... but how often have these contracts worked for a club? Players are safe for 5 years no matter what. So ofcourse they will jump at them. They know they can get more later if they're worth it.
I think 2 seasons would have been best. With a third in our favour. See how he is and what our options are in 2 years. Not put all the power in his hands.
That said he doesnt strike me as a greedy player who will demand more if he's worth it. But he will have family and friends. His manager etc. Who could pressure him into that. At the end of the day his family comes first. I wouldnt blame any player choosing an extra $100k+ per year. Thats a lot for a short career.
Agreed that if others are eligible then no discount for Whare but who is currently signed for the longer term that meets the criteria – Cartwright & DWZ. How long before DWZ is tired of playing, and being paid as a, winger? Is Cartwright someone we see being here long term. He provides x factor but not sure he’s the sort of talent you can build around – he maybe more of a “nice to have”? Here’s hoping he can focus on just playing this season so we can make a realistic assessment.
A rhetorical question as I know none of us have the answer – is the $2.2m included in the cap or are there TPA’s topping them up?
Of these 27 players assume 7 players at minimum costs another $850k. This then leaves 20 players required from $6.4m @ $320k per player.
Of these 20 you want as many players as possible that are FG ready so any of these you can sign at $320k or less, the better. In Whare’s case, we have a NZ starting centre. That is value for money all day every day.
Just to put it on the table now – we won’t keep all these players unless they agree to stay at the right price. We as fans definitely over-rate our players’ potential. When we are discussing what constitutes an elite or above average player, the test should be if they playing at your least favourite club (Sharks or Broncos) would you want them, and then how much would you pay them? We need to pick our core 4-5 players and contract them according to their performance, not their potential. This will be complicated by other clubs desperate to pay players greater than market value.
So which players are the core that we want to build around for the next 3-5 years. Stealing from the Storm’s model, I’d nominate Cleary, Edwards, a hooker (great if its Egan or Katoa but no guarantee and we may have to recruit in this area – maybe 1 of the Brailey boys from the Sharks), RCG (if his 2017 form continues into 2018) and at this stage Cartwright. All other players (including Merrin, Tamou and Maloney) should be considered role players and replaceable. Its great if we can keep them at the right price but we have to be prepared to let them walk. This is 1 reason why Whare is a good signing.
If Whare comes good and wants an increase, the club can decide to pay Whare or let him walk. Either way, the club has a period of time where Whare is being paid at $300k but playing like $500k+. In terms of managing a salary cap, this is a great result for the club. To maximise the cap, there need to be players that are playing above their pay packets. This is a big reason why 2003 was so successful – a lot of talented players on minimal contracts (including Rooney, Lewis, Clinton, Waterhouse, Swain, Whatuira, Galavao, Ross) playing FG and performing above expectations. I’m not suggesting we need to find this number of underpaid players again to be successful – but if you can find 2 or 3 it goes a long way.
Again, if it was 5 years at $500k-$600k I’d agree with you. But at $300k there is definitely more upside for the club. As you said, Whare doesn’t come across as greedy. If he can play regular FG (similar to a Chambers role) for us, in a couple of years he’s 30 and may not want to leave the club or we might have a new young kid on the scene to transition into FG, and we want Whare to either move on or play reserves.
I don’t disagree that a 2-3 year deal is a safer bet, but I do dispute that the player has all the power. Like I said in a previous post, most deals are gambles – you’re never certain of the outcome. I see this as 1 in the club’s favour where we haven’t had to sign him in a competitive environment, signed him longer term and he’s already back playing FG and international footy. If he does re-injure, the club deals with it then – there have been players before that have never had a serious injury and then after re-signing, suffer one – you can’t protect against this. Similarly there are cases where players have missed a couple of years due to injury and then returned to play out a successful career.
