Where to?

[adamkungl]

With 2020 ending in disappointment, where to for the Roosters? What went wrong? Will 2021 see a return to the top?

Despite being premiership favourites a month ago, Roosters were badly found out in the last 3 games. We won't want give them the credit - but Souths exposed some glaring weaknesses. The 60 point loss wasn't a one-off fluke - old Wayne blew a hole in the wall and Cleary and Sticky followed him through the breach.
The long season caught up with us. Older players found themselves a foot off the pace and younger ones didn't have what it takes to hold it together in the finals pressure cooker. The gap between aging forwards and inexperienced rookies was the weak point that blew us wide open.

It didn't help that we could barely go a week without a major injury disruption. Friend's knockout against Souths was the nail in the coffin, but our record against top teams was a fair indication that the golden run was ending. Finished with 7 losses, 3 wins against the top 6, and 0 from 4 vs the top 2.

2 major weaknesses exist that need to be resolved before we'll contend again

1. The heirs to halfback and hooker:
Hard to say if Flanno or Lam is the answer at 7 long term, and we may not know for another year. At hooker, Verrills did well 2019 but missed most of 2020. Promising, but by no means a proven long-term thing. As we saw with Jackson Hastings a few years ago, house sitting and being handed the keys are two very different scenarios.

2. The ageing warriors:
Brett & Josh, JWH, Cordner, Friend - best days are behind them.
JWH & Cordner had nights to forget in defence against Raiders. Badly exposed with lateral movement for 2 crucial tries. Both signed through 2023, but we may find they run out of gas before then.

2021 best 17?

1 Tedesco
2 Tupou
3 Smith
4 Manu
5 Morris
6 Keary
7 Flanagan
8 Collins
9 Verrills
10 Taukeiaho
11 Cordner
12 Crichton
13 Radley
14 Friend
15 Tupouniua
16 Liu
17 JWH

Flanagan will be fighting off stiff competition from Lam and the young Sam Walker. My guess is that all 3 of them won't be at the club in 2022, one of Flanno and Lam will be moved on.
Billy Smith to get first crack at centre, with Josh Morris, if retained, moving to a backup role. We need to find out if some of these young blokes have what it takes.
On Brett Morris, I'm on the fence. Great year but a lot of mileage adding up. I don't think Ikuvalu is the answer though.

Collins and Verrills to step up to starting positions in a gradual phase out of JWH and Friend. Again, they need to prove they can hack it.
Cordner in a similar boat, but one of the co-captains needs to stay in the starting lineup. But if he struggles to hold it together again in 2021, he might be convinced to retire early.
Crichton needs to start, and Radley's return will be a godsend. We missed his energy.

Tupouniua rounds out the bench over Butcher, who I am not sold on at all.
SBW?? On face value I wouldn't say no to another year of the great man, at the right price. But even if he is available, he only makes our 17 if we have another poor run with injury. As I've said, its a year to be investing in youth rather than pinning our hopes to former glories.

I'd call 2021 a transition/investment year. Expect a 5th-8th finish. I don't think we'll be seriously competing for a premiership. With limited room for any major signings, we need to regroup and see which of the young blokes has what it takes, and prepare for a serious assault in 2022.
2021 will be a slightly re-jigged roster, but 2022 gives us a lot more flexibility for a full refresh.
We'll have a couple of retirements, some lingering questions answered, and some players moved on as surplus to requirements.

 

[Valheru]

Great post.

The what went wrong is the injuries, an aging roster and tiredness which resulted in a bit of a lack of desire towards the end there.

I said it in the Flanno thread, the players need a good break from here and it will do them a world of good to experience a normal (or COVID normal) post season for the first time in 2 years. I also believe defence will be the focus in the off season because we were a shadow of ourselves this year, particularly int he middle.

The Radley injury was the big one that bit us on the ass at the end IMO, we were destroyed in the middle for large chunks of time against the top teams when it mattered. I do fear how long it may take him to get back to his best as ACL injuries are tricky.

Halfback is a big issue. it is a bit tough on young Flanno because he did ok but Keary is not a game controlling type player and we need a 7 who can control things whilst Keary does what he does. TBH I reckon Lam was able to unlock Keary's running game far more than Flanno did.

Hooker is the other issue. Jake just makes too many errors in attack nowadays but is almost irreplaceable int he middle defensively. Verrils needs to serve a proper apprenticeship to Friend coming off the bench which was obviously the plan this year but didn't materlialise.

JWH dropped his form massively in the last month and looked old and tired. I am willing to give him the starting position again next year with Collins continuing to develop on the bench due to past service but they should be swapped if things continue as they were. SST picks himself and I would also like young Fifita and Bailey to get more game time both of which I was impressed by int heir limited opportunities this year.

Cordner is a huge concern, it is quite sad to watch him these days actually. He is being picked for NSW out of respect really and it wouldn't surprise me to see him medically retired next year.He still starts in round 1 next year but I foresee tough decisions on the horizon.

The back line is interesting. Teddy, Manu and Tupou are certainties. Not sure what we do with the Morris twins at this stage, they were wonderful this year but they are journeymen. Billy Smith has to be given a chance at some stage and Tuipolotu impressed in the couple of games he played as well.

My 2021 round 1 team

1. Teddy
2. Toops
3. Smith
4. Manu
5. B-Moz
6. Keary
7. Lam/Walker
8. JWH
9. Friend
10. SST
11. Cordner
12. Crighton
13. Radley

14. Verrils
15. Liu
16. Collins
17. Sitilli

18. J-Moz
19. Fifita
20. Faamasulli
21. Tuipolotu

That is with a plan by end of season for Friend and Verrils to swap roles and possibly JWH and Collins as well. I am super keen on Fifita and Tuipolotu to get significant game time as well even if it is at the expense of Liu and B-Moz respectively.

As for expectations next year, I can never dismiss a team with Teddy, Keary and Radley from finishing top 4 although 5-8 seems more likely. We are in a kind of weird flux for 2021 because finishing anywhere int he top 8 wouldn't surprise, nor would a 2016 like season (not as bad) if things go awry due to injuries and we blow the place up a bit.

If our issues at HB and Hooker don't look likely to be resolved by the troops we have, I expect us to aggressively hit the market for 2022 in those positions. I am comfortable with what we have got everywhere else for the next few seasons.

 

[adamkungl]

Until the last few weeks I wouldn't have had major concerns about Hargreaves, Cordner, and Morris.

This illustrates it though. They just aren't as quick on their feet as they once were.


Add in Josh Morris getting brushed (plus dragged over the sideline a couple of times) and I'm concerned that although they are still great footballers, the fact is Penrith and Canberra, and even Souths, have a younger, hungrier, fitter pack. This is exacerbated by the faster pace of play and increased fatigue with PVLs 6-again rules.

I suspect if you went through the last 3 losses, you'd see a recurring theme. Get our ageing pack on the back foot. Then get them moving laterally. Their reduced ability to respond to footwork at the line leaves our halves exposed, centres forced to make desperation rush reads, and either the edge leaks points or they change direction and someone like Papalii powers under the posts.

Maybe a break and an offseason will refresh them. I'll never doubt these guys ability to dig deep. But the question will, must, be asked. Can they hack the 3 more seasons they're both contracted for?

 

[Valheru]

Maybe a break and an offseason will refresh them. I'll never doubt these guys ability to dig deep. But the question will, must, be asked. Can they hack the 3 more seasons they're both contracted for?

I think in the case of JWH my answer at this point would be yes with the caveat that he transitions to a bench role by end of next season.

Cordner doesn't look like he can hack another month let alone 3 seasons if I am blatantly honest. It would not surprise me if he gets a tap on the shoulder from NSW and 'retires' from rep football due to injuries, concentrating on the roosters etc. I really can't see this ending in any other fashion than a medical retirement some time in 2022 though.

As for the Morriss twins, they will only play the one more season max so probably worth hanging on to. If we can rediscover that dominance in the middle then they could definitively be those experienced heads on the back of Teddy and Keary that could be the difference between places 5-8 and a tilt at the title. If things don't work out that way then the playing time must go to Smith and Tuipolotu.

 

[adamkungl]

I'm in favour of promoting youth at this point. It might result in some short term pain, but will have us in better stead for 2022 onwards. No point delaying the inevitable.
If we can keep the Morris's around as back ups then great, but I'm not sure they will want to go out playing for North Sydney.

 

[Old tiger 79]

I'm in favour of promoting youth at this point. It might result in some short term pain, but will have us in better stead for 2022 onwards. No point delaying the inevitable.
If we can keep the Morris's around as back ups then great, but I'm not sure they will want to go out playing for North Sydney.

How was your mad Monday Adam?

a lot of teams would kill for a talent like Kyle

 

[Captain Apollo]

At this stage it is too early to tell for 2021. For example, Tupouniua has problems making defensive reads and his lateral movement in defence. Don't forget he was defending on the right in that Round 20 game against Souths that got pulled apart. Also Jake Friend has not been re-signed yet, and there were some media reports that we have to move someone on to create enough salary cap room to enable that.

Also in relation to Verrills, Smith and Radley, it may take them quite a while to get back to anywhere near their best as ACL injuries take a long time to rehab from, and even then it takes weeks on field before they trust the joint to stand up to wear and tear.

I'm not saying this isn't a valid topic for discussion, but for me, its too soon is all.

 

[Old tiger 79]

All Roosters supporters are f**king diusional! You merkins came closish to 3peat...had injuries...as other teams did & had worse but no whinge, whinge f**ken whinge still.

 

[The Fanatical Rooster]

This is our part of the forum - we can if we wish to. I wouldn't call it whinging, but a true and honest assessment and self reflection. If you want whinging, I could find plenty of legitimate subject matter to whinge about!

It is why we are so successful. We don't accept mediocrity. We challenge and strive to improve.

Despite the loss, I am so proud of our club and what it has achieved over the past two seasons. It won't happen again anytime soon.

 

[adamkungl]

All Roosters supporters are f**king diusional! You merkins came closish to 3peat...had injuries...as other teams did & had worse but no whinge, whinge f**ken whinge still.

Some clubs come 9th and think all is well.
Others come 1st and get to work on how to improve again.

 

[adamkungl]

Anyway - no whinging here. Just a guess at what the future might look like from here, and how the club will react to a straight sets exit.

 

[Valheru]

All Roosters supporters are f**king diusional! You merkins came closish to 3peat...had injuries...as other teams did & had worse but no whinge, whinge f**ken whinge still.

Lol how is this in any way whinging?

Now that we have been eliminated for 2020 we are discussing the future of the roosters team in 2021 and beyond on a forum dedicated to the roosters.

 

[H.H]

Good thread guys apart from you know who.

Anyway, not much more I can add as it covers most of my thoughts. Concerns me how quickly alot of them started to look old, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt for now.

On the Morris boys, they both missed chances on Friday that they NEVER EVER would've missed previously. Not a huge deal in isolation, but telling little signs for me.

Agree Cordner's a concern and I think we all saw this in his future given the way he plays. Really doesn't need this origin caper so I hope this is it for him.

Key loss was Radley - means so much in all facets of the game. As good as he is, I think this shows how underrated he actually still is/was. Really hope he can get back to his best - super player.

And for mine, Lam over Flanagan all day. Hate being harsh on the kid as it's alot to ask at his age, but I'm just not sure on him long term. Time will tell.

Enjoy your off season fellas, it's been a hell of a run so take the time to reflect on how lucky we've been to live it.

See ya's next year.

 

[adamkungl]

I think we can back the coach making the right move on Flanno.

I don't think Robinson is the type to churn through young halves like the Jamie Soward / Josh Lewis era so if he decides to stick with or let go of Flanno I have some confidence he's on the right track. He hasn't backed many losers.

 

[Captain Apollo]

And for mine, Lam over Flanagan all day. Hate being harsh on the kid as it's alot to ask at his age, but I'm just not sure on him long term. Time will tell.

Personally I'm not as sold on Lam. I can still remember the ANZAC Day game last year where he started at five eight whilst Keary was injured and absolutely butchered a try by running away form his supports in the second half when the game was still in the balance. He is solid but that is about all.

Also Lam is only 6 months older than Flanagan, being born in March 1998 as opposed to September 1998. So referring to Flanagan as a kid compared to Lam is disingenuous.

Sam Walker is potentially the most talented halfback at the club.

On a different note, Ryan Hall is one whom I think will be moved on. I think his knee injury suffered in his final year in the UK so stuffed him up and is a big part of why he never showed much form when he did play for us.

 

[Valheru]

There is a rumour gaining momentum that Flanno will be at the dogs next year.

 

[Babyface O'reilly]

I feel sorry for Flanno if the rumours are true but I’m with Adam here in that we have to trust Robbo. With Keary’s history of head knocks and probable rep duty, I think Robbo is planning to go through a season without Keary for 6 or 7 weeks a year, quite regularly. Needs a half who can take over the reins and run the team. Obviously feels Flanno ain’t up to the task.

 

[Captain Apollo]

There is a rumour gaining momentum that Flanno will be at the dogs next year.

James Hooper is the one reporting it - https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...n/news-story/01e5ee3bfb91abb40aea8119cd31ff27

 

[Valheru]

I woukd say he is on odds to be gone by ney year.

Do we go all in on Walker or does Lam start?

 

[Babyface O'reilly]

I woukd say he is on odds to be gone by ney year.

Do we go all in on Walker or does Lam start?

There’s been no reggies this year for Walker to test his mettle so I’d start with Lam who has more first grade experience anyway. Robbo will look to ease him in, you’d think.