Do you want Brad Arthur as coach

[Poupou Escobar]

I know you didn't ask me but I'd say:

1. No
2. About the same

I'm interested in your thoughts on if/when we should punt BA. At what point would you think "this merkin has to go..."? Bundled out this year? Next year? 2024? I assume it would also depend on available alternatives but keen to hear what you think.

Well while it's a fact that we have never choked in the finals, it's also a fact that nobody has ever choked against us in the finals. Luck is a factor in all of this but the numbers are starting to add up and they're not looking good. If we lose to Canberra it will be a choke. No big deal on its own (Bellamy's and Robinson's teams both choked on the weekend) but in light of all the other results over the years I'd be inclined to think Arthur's contract shouldn't be renewed.

 

[Chipmunk]

Well while it's a fact that we have never choked in the finals, it's also a fact that nobody has ever choked against us in the finals. Luck is a factor in all of this but the numbers are starting to add up and they're not looking good. If we lose to Canberra it will be a choke. No big deal on its own (Bellamy's and Robinson's teams both choked on the weekend) but in light of all the other results over the years I'd be inclined to think Arthur's contract shouldn't be renewed.

Surely in 2017 finishing 4th and then going out to the team who was 8th, who had an inferior for and against to us, and their star player out, was a choke?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

We lost to Cowboys in 2017 but that was it I think.

Yep, and the difference between the two was statistically insignificant (+39 vs +24).

All opponents:

Merkins	Opponent f/a	Parra f/a	Difference	Win/loss?
Storm 2017	+297	+39	-258	Lost by 2
Cowboys 2017	+24	+39	+15	Lost by 8
Broncos 2019	-57	+60	+117	Won by 58
Storm 2019	+331	+60	-271	Lost by 32
Storm 2020	+258	+104	-154	Lost by 12
Rabbitohs 2020	+169	+104	-65	Lost by 14
Knights 2021	-143	+109	+252	Won by 8
Panthers 2021	+390	+109	-281	Lost by 2
Panthers 2022	+306	+119	-187	Lost by 19
Raiders 2022	+63	+119	+56

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Surely in 2017 finishing 4th and then going out to the team who was 8th, who had an inferior for and against to us, and their star player out, was a choke?

I don't see it as a choke because the difference (+15) was negligible and the fact of their star player being out just put them at our level, instead of far above it, which would have been the case if he'd played. I saw that as an even match up, much like our match up against Souths in 2020.

 

[emjaycee]

Well while it's a fact that we have never choked in the finals, it's also a fact that nobody has ever choked against us in the finals. Luck is a factor in all of this but the numbers are starting to add up and they're not looking good. If we lose to Canberra it will be a choke. No big deal on its own (Bellamy's and Robinson's teams both choked on the weekend) but in light of all the other results over the years I'd be inclined to think Arthur's contract shouldn't be renewed.

Arthurs current contract has 2 more years to run.
It won't be renewed at anytime unless he gets a premiership.

Period.

 

[Chipmunk]

Arthurs current contract has 2 more years to run.
It won't be renewed at anytime unless he gets a premiership.

Period.

The issue there is that if there isn't a Premiership this or next season what does the club do?

It is not as if you can give him 6 rounds or 12 rounds in the last year of his contract before you make a decision, what would we learn from that? We haven't been outside the Top 8 at any stage for 4 years, you're going to learn nothing during a regular season.

You cant really wait until the end of the contract to make a decision, as in the modern game that just isn't practical.

So he basically has 3 weeks and then one more season to win a comp. The last year of his contract it would seem unlikely to be fulfilled unless he wins a comp this season or next.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Just heard a rumour that BA has been locked in for next year.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Yep, and the difference between the two was statistically insignificant (+39 vs +24).

All opponents:

Merkins	Opponent f/a	Parra f/a	Difference	Win/loss?
Storm 2017	+297	+39	-258	Lost by 2
Cowboys 2017	+24	+39	+15	Lost by 8
Broncos 2019	-57	+60	+117	Won by 58
Storm 2019	+331	+60	-271	Lost by 32
Storm 2020	+258	+104	-154	Lost by 12
Rabbitohs 2020	+169	+104	-65	Lost by 14
Knights 2021	-143	+109	+252	Won by 8
Panthers 2021	+390	+109	-281	Lost by 2
Panthers 2022	+306	+119	-187	Lost by 19
Raiders 2022	+63	+119	+56

Further illustration of how F&A is an excellent barometer come finals time.

 

[hindy111]

Two questions:

1. Is it relevant to the result this weekend?

2. Will his finals record be more or less relevant after this game?

It shows we have failed come finals. A lot of those games we where not expected to win bar the one against Cowboys. But upsets happen. Just like 3 on the weekend. It seems we never are capable of an upset in finals.
If Canberra beat us then you'd say we have lost 2 games against sides we where favourites to beat.

The sides we've beaten in finals both ended up close to last the following season. Knights and Brisbane. Two sides who had started the season well and finished on the slide. Neither where even the 8th best side. Both very average sides.

 

[hindy111]

Just heard a rumour that BA has been locked in for next year.

Not the people I know. We have some luck this season. Probably our best side under BA and 2/3 best sides in comp have had seasons ruined by injuries.
Penrith are a great side but had lots of luck the last 2yrs. There two biggest threats this season got analed by injuries. They are 100% fit

Last season Souths had best player out,we had no hooker and Storm lost Welch and B.Smith in first 15mins.

Nothing's better then having a great side and your opposition aren't at full strength.

 

[hineyrulz]

One of the problems is that we have scraped into the top four a couple of times when we haven’t deserved to (according to points differential). What this means is that we have lost in week one where we were more likely to win against an opponent ranked 5th to 8th. Three extra wins and we would’ve been five from nine.

And your auntie had balls she’d be your uncle, 2 from 9 is a decent sample size.

I think it’s proof he can get a team to a certain level but not enough to have them challenging for a title. Even if we scrape over a pretty average Canberra side only a tough win in North QLD will give him a pass mark for this year.

 

[hindy111]

And your auntie had balls she’d be your uncle, 2 from 9 is a decent sample size.

I think it’s proof he can get a team to a certain level but not enough to have them challenging for a title. Even if we scrape over a pretty average Canberra side only a tough win in North QLD will give him a pass mark for this year.

Just unlucky.

 

[strider]

It shows we have failed come finals. A lot of those games we where not expected to win bar the one against Cowboys. But upsets happen. Just like 3 on the weekend. It seems we never are capable of an upset in finals.
If Canberra beat us then you'd say we have lost 2 games against sides we where favourites to beat.

The sides we've beaten in finals both ended up close to last the following season. Knights and Brisbane. Two sides who had started the season well and finished on the slide. Neither where even the 8th best side. Both very average sides.

But they werent really big upsets on the weekend.

Sharks vs Cows was 2vs3 ... yeah it was in sydney but cowboys were given a real chance
roosters vs souths was 5 vs 6 ... roosters missing players, souths full strength - could have gone either way
Storm vs Canberra ... canberra have a good history, storm had been bashed by roosters and us in recent weeks ... plenty gave the raiders a chance

This is a close finals series .... its what everyone says, Penrith are the clear favourites, then the rest

 

[Gary Gutful]

And your auntie had balls she’d be your uncle

Is disrespectful to assume their agenda. Its not 2019 FFS!

 

[strider]

And your auntie had balls she’d be your uncle, 2 from 9 is a decent sample size.

I think it’s proof he can get a team to a certain level but not enough to have them challenging for a title. Even if we scrape over a pretty average Canberra side only a tough win in North QLD will give him a pass mark for this year.

Yeah lets just keep moving the goal posts lol

Just a pass if we make the GF? ... anyone who makes the GF has had a f**kin good season and either kicked arse in the regular season or likely had to travel to win finals.

 

[IFR33K]

Arthurs current contract has 2 more years to run.
It won't be renewed at anytime unless he gets a premiership.

Period.

how about if he moves closer to the stadium. Like 3 minutes away?

 

[Gary Gutful]

Yeah lets just keep moving the goal posts lol

Just a pass if we make the GF? ... anyone who makes the GF has had a f**kin good season and either kicked arse in the regular season or likely had to travel to win finals.

I would call a GF a fail with our squad and a GF win is a pass conceded.

 

[hineyrulz]

Yeah lets just keep moving the goal posts lol

Just a pass if we make the GF? ... anyone who makes the GF has had a f**kin good season and either kicked arse in the regular season or likely had to travel to win finals.

After 9 years would you be happy with beating Canberra and losing to the Cows??? It would of been a pass mark a year or two ago but not this season. Especially with the shit that the Storm and Roosters have copped. Besides Penrith i reckon the rest of the teams are very beatable. We stuck with them for 60mins and we’re below our best. His time to win is now and if he can’t him and his sprog need to be moved on.

 

[Gary Gutful]

After 9 years would you be happy with beating Canberra and losing to the Cows??? It would of been a pass mark a year or two ago but not this season. Especially with the shit that the Storm and Roosters have copped. Besides Penrith i reckon the rest of the teams are very beatable. We stuck with them for 60mins and we’re below our best. His time to win is now and if he can’t him and his sprog need to be moved on.

You are basically admitting that because of a long drought you have become desperate for success and unrealistic with your expectations...and no, I'm not talking about you trying to pull a root on a Friday night at Chardons Hotel.

 

[hineyrulz]

You are basically admitting that because of a long drought you have become desperate for success and unrealistic with your expectations...and no, I'm not talking about you trying to pull a root on a Friday night at Chardons Hotel.

So a 9 year coach should be under the same pressure as a coach in his 3rd year?? Atm he’s 2 from 9 and even if he jags a win and loooooooooses against the Cows it’s 3 from 11. Does that scream out premiership winning coach?? Especially one that refuses to pick the best side week after week???