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Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
72,986
How much do we think Origin (mens+womens) is really worth as a 6 game stand alone product? I have recollections of $30-50mill a year being mentioned in the past?
 
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melbbunny

Juniors
Messages
7
For those that want to compare the AFL v NRL deals. It’s not always rosier getting more cash. AFL fans are livid about a number of changes… interesting to see what the NRL gives up to get a boost equivalent of the new AFL.

 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
40,930
How much do we think Origin (mens+womens) is really worth as a 6 game stand alone product? I have recollections of $30-50mill a year being mentioned in the past?
Seven offered 30 million for the mens only comp which was was rejected

It would need to be 70 million to make it worthwhile for annoying channel nine 9️⃣
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
40,930

This makes the nrl rights more valuable

Afl fans are already complaining about less fta coverage
“Just two months after AFL fans were shocked to find out it would cost a minimum of $25 a month to watch any live football on a Saturday, Foxtel’s Kayo is preparing to hike its subscription costs again.

While it was announced last year, it wasn’t until round one of the season that many Australians switched on free-to-air broadcaster Network Seven on Saturday night to find a movie rerun playing instead of football.

An advertisement for Kayo Sports promoting their exclusive Fox Footy AFL coverage on Saturdays.
An advertisement for Kayo Sports promoting their exclusive Fox Footy AFL coverage on Saturdays.CREDIT: PAUL ROVERE
Foxtel, less than two months into its new ownership by British streamer DAZN, had made it clear before the start of the 2025 AFL season that the only place to watch the footy on a Saturday would be through a subscription to its streaming platform, Kayo, or for those still paying a premium for a set-top box at home.

But for the average Australian, watching the AFL on a Saturday night is standard appointment viewing, and most do not expect to pay for it. While all games are available on Foxtel, there was an expectation among fans at least one game would be available each day across the weekend.

In Foxtel’s final reported figures before being sold by News Corp and Telstra, it reported 1.5 million paying subscribers for Kayo in September last year.

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On the eve of the season kicking off in March, Kayo’s “basic” tier was renamed “Kayo Premium”, with its price rising to $40 a month (up from $35). Meanwhile, those still on its standard tier, will have to pay $30 from June 3, up from $25.

This is the first year of the blockbuster $4.5 billion contract signed by the AFL, Foxtel and Seven in 2022. The contract will run until 2031; Foxtel pays about $418 million a year to the AFL as part of the deal.

Given the cost of the AFL rights, and rising costs of all of its other sports contracts, Foxtel has had to find ways to make a profit. And a part of the remedy has been to put AFL games behind a paywall on the biggest day of the week for the league.
Foxtel’s exclusive “Super Saturday” coverage was initially in place nationally across the first eight rounds. Now, viewers in other states can watch the Saturday AFL games on Network Seven, but Victorians have no option other than paying for it.

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Games in Western Australia and South Australia on Saturdays are now available for the rest of the season on Seven, while games in New South Wales and Queensland, predominantly NRL states, will be available on free-to-air TV from this week’s round of matches.

In Victoria, where more than half of the AFL teams play, Saturday night footy is locked behind a paywall for the rest of the season.

While Kayo also displays some ads, it relies mostly on subscription revenue to recoup its substantial investments in expensive broadcast rights. A Kayo spokesperson confirmed this was the first price rise to its entry-level tier since it launched in 2018.

“We have worked hard to avoid any changes to our Kayo entry-level tier subscription over the past seven years, but with the growing cost of sports content and the need for continued investment in technology, we have had to make the difficult decision to increase the entry-level price by $5 per month to $30,” the spokesperson said.

Foxtel has a similar arrangement with the NRL, broadcasting “Super Saturday” coverage, with free-to-air broadcaster Nine Network showing games on Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays.

The NRL is taking its broadcast rights from 2028 onwards to market this year, leaving Foxtel with the likelihood of having to pay more to retain its rights package.”


Foxtel pays afl 418 million pa on the new deal according to the article

So the nrl pay tv rights should be more 450 to 550 million on their own given the ratings dominance

Even if nine stick to 130 millon pa, and sky nz 32 million, a total of 600 million should be easy and potentially 650 million

In terms of pricing kayo seems to average 35 a month and the full Foxtel package over 100 a month

With Fox paying AFL 418 million pa, seven around 170 millon then indeed the afl tv deal is 590 million at best
 
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Messages
12,269
We've seen Union peak and fall in our lifetimes and we are watching the beginning of the fall from its peak by the AFL too, just as the NRL finally fires up the rockets to make its inevitable run to the top of the Australian, New Zealand and wider Pacific sporting landscape.
It is the beginning of the end (but don't get too complacent or cocky)
We still have a long way to go...And we need to move the Barassi line...

Liberation and Victory is possible.
 

ash the bash

Juniors
Messages
1,142
We've seen Union peak and fall in our lifetimes and we are watching the beginning of the fall from its peak by the AFL too, just as the NRL finally fires up the rockets to make its inevitable run to the top of the Australian, New Zealand and wider Pacific sporting landscape.
Yes I remember the Union peak would have been through the years 2000-2004 I reckon. The infamous war chest etc...

Look in regards to AFL/NRL I don't think its a zero sum game between the two. They both would be happy to exist as a duopoly. They both would be more concerned with a third code getting close to them. They AFL/NRL would be colluding a lot more than we assume especially with lobbying for sports gambling etc. Competition breads innovation and the NRL has had to really improve their game due to the AFL success.
 

Vlad59

First Grade
Messages
5,223
Yes I remember the Union peak would have been through the years 2000-2004 I reckon. The infamous war chest etc...

Look in regards to AFL/NRL I don't think its a zero sum game between the two. They both would be happy to exist as a duopoly. They both would be more concerned with a third code getting close to them. They AFL/NRL would be colluding a lot more than we assume especially with lobbying for sports gambling etc. Competition breads innovation and the NRL has had to really improve their game due to the AFL success.
Last sentence is a beauty
 

titoelcolombiano

First Grade
Messages
7,139
It is the beginning of the end (but don't get too complacent or cocky)
We still have a long way to go...And we need to move the Barassi line...

Liberation and Victory is possible.
Agreed, we need a solid few decades of growth. Good thing is, we don't need to take any AFL states to dominate the country as the AFL are obsessed with.

We need to utterly dominate NSW and QLD and have storm level support in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth... essentially make sure AFL fans in those states have the Storm, Bears and Rams respectively as their second team along with a rusted on base of hard core RL fans.
 
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Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
40,930
We've seen Union peak and fall in our lifetimes and we are watching the beginning of the fall from its peak by the AFL too, just as the NRL finally fires up the rockets to make its inevitable run to the top of the Australian, New Zealand and wider Pacific sporting landscape.
Afl has failed to grow tv ratings in 53 percent of Australia

Nsw and qld have had saturation afl coverage and have rejected the sport

That’s going to be a huge issue for them going forward

Plus ignoring nz
 

titoelcolombiano

First Grade
Messages
7,139
Afl has failed to grow tv ratings in 53 percent of Australia

Nsw and qld have had saturation afl coverage and have rejected the sport

That’s going to be a huge issue for them going forward

Plus ignoring nz
Yep we haven't even touched Perth and Adelaide yet and we've only got serious about development in Melbourne the last few years and they are still falling behind in the ratings. They are absolutely f**ked over the next few decades... unless we shoot ourselves in the foot again which I can't see happening
 

titoelcolombiano

First Grade
Messages
7,139
This all basically reads like fanfiction. Yes the NRL is doing great right now but the idea that the AFL is declining or dying is fanciful. The comparison to union makes no sense, it was never in a comparable position to what the AFL is on any metric.
Not claiming we've overtaken them. Just saying there are many signs that they've peaked

- only options left for expansion are Tasmania, ACT and NT, probably the three least lucrative markets or NQ which would be a huge struggle for them

- thrown the kitchen sink at NSW and QLD for 40 years and ratings are still pathetic

- they used to lead the way in Australian sport and now they are completely reactionary to the NRL and their reactions are pale imitations of NRL events (Gather Round, Indigenous All Stars, talk about reviving Origin out of envy, Round Zero in response to Vegas)

The NRL on the other hand

- broadcast deal being negotiated at the moment which Vlandys is talking up as the richest in Australian sports history (we'll wait to see if this actually happens, but he's really setting himself up for the gallows if he is talking $3B and isn't confident he'll deliver)

- Vegas, Origin and Magic Round produce incredible hype and interest in the game

- We are killing the AFL in ratings without Perth or Adelaide in the comp, imagine when we start to get any sort of traction in those markets

- Expansion: Perth and PNG on the way with Ipswich, Christchurch, Adelaide, Wellington all as viable and reasonably lucrative options comparitively to AFL's options

All examples of how the NRL has the upper hand at the moment and how the tide is turning, none of that is "fan fiction". Hopefully Vlandys does land the $3B because the rivalry between the two codes gets very real from there.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
72,986
Here we go with DAZN and their price hikes. One of the biggest complaints about them in Europe is the cost of their service.
 

Canard

Immortal
Messages
36,658
We've seen Union peak and fall in our lifetimes and we are watching the beginning of the fall from its peak by the AFL too, just as the NRL finally fires up the rockets to make its inevitable run to the top of the Australian, New Zealand and wider Pacific sporting landscape.
Union was, and never has been anywhere near as big a Winter Sport the League and the other code though. It never touched either at its peak.

And RL is a long long way off anything like being the biggest sport in NZ, especially the South Island.
 

Canard

Immortal
Messages
36,658
Not claiming we've overtaken them. Just saying there are many signs that they've peaked

- only options left for expansion are Tasmania, ACT and NT, probably the three least lucrative markets or NQ which would be a huge struggle for them

- thrown the kitchen sink at NSW and QLD for 40 years and ratings are still pathetic

- they used to lead the way in Australian sport and now they are completely reactionary to the NRL and their reactions are pale imitations of NRL events (Gather Round, Indigenous All Stars, talk about reviving Origin out of envy, Round Zero in response to Vegas)

The NRL on the other hand

- broadcast deal being negotiated at the moment which Vlandys is talking up as the richest in Australian sports history (we'll wait to see if this actually happens, but he's really setting himself up for the gallows if he is talking $3B and isn't confident he'll deliver)

- Vegas, Origin and Magic Round produce incredible hype and interest in the game

- We are killing the AFL in ratings without Perth or Adelaide in the comp, imagine when we start to get any sort of traction in those markets

- Expansion: Perth and PNG on the way with Ipswich, Christchurch, Adelaide, Wellington all as viable and reasonably lucrative options comparitively to AFL's options

All examples of how the NRL has the upper hand at the moment and how the tide is turning, none of that is "fan fiction". Hopefully Vlandys does land the $3B because the rivalry between the two codes gets very real from there.
All good points, boasting about PNG probably isn't going to get many fans of other sports very bothered though.
 
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