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Parramatta Eels Juniors

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
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95,976
Anyway my point being he is small and worked on his defy which is the point.
Every 19 year old has a lot of improvement in him. The ones who aren’t up to Flegg (but are good enough for SG Ball) will probably never play first grade. The ones who are good enough for Flegg but not reserve grade will probably be fringe first graders. The ones who are already reserve graders or fringe first graders at 19 will probably play 200 NRL games.

Dudes who are already playing NRL at 19 will probably turn out as good as Dearden, Hunt, et al.
 

JokerEel

Coach
Messages
17,434
Every 19 year old has a lot of improvement in him. The ones who aren’t up to Flegg (but are good enough for SG Ball) will probably never play first grade. The ones who are good enough for Flegg but not reserve grade will probably be fringe first graders. The ones who are already reserve graders or fringe first graders at 19 will probably play 200 NRL games.

Dudes who are already playing NRL at 19 will probably turn out as good as Dearden, Hunt, et al.


Probably probably probably

f**king deeeeeeeeeer
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
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95,976
Here's the age on NRL debut for each of the 40 players who appeared in this year's Origin series. You will PROBABLY notice that more Origin players debuted in the NRL at 18 than there were 'late bloomers' who debuted after the age of 20:

Age on NRL debutOrigin playersTotal by age
22Capewell, Cherry-Evans, Martin3
21Barnett, Carrigan, Collins, Cotter, Fermor, Luai, Mann7
20A. Crichton, Edwards, Grant, Loiero, To'o, Toia, Utoikamanu, Young8
19Fa'asuamaleaui, Holmes, King, Moses, Munster, Papalii, Robson, Shibasaki, Watson, Yeo10
18Cleary, Coates, S. Crichton, Dearden, Fotuaika, Haas, Leniu, Lomax, Mitchell, Nanai, Ponga, Tabuai-Fidow12

The age of a player on his NRL debut is definitely predictive of his rugby league potential, to a high PROBABILITY. Some great players debut late, some lemons debut early, but generally the best players debut earlier than the rest.
 

JokerEel

Coach
Messages
17,434
Here's the age on NRL debut for each of the 40 players who appeared in this year's Origin series. You will PROBABLY notice that more Origin players debuted in the NRL at 18 than there were 'late bloomers' who debuted after the age of 20:

Age on NRL debutOrigin playersTotal by age
22Capewell, Cherry-Evans, Martin3
21Barnett, Carrigan, Collins, Cotter, Fermor, Luai, Mann7
20A. Crichton, Edwards, Grant, Loiero, To'o, Toia, Utoikamanu, Young8
19Fa'asuamaleaui, Holmes, King, Moses, Munster, Papalii, Robson, Shibasaki, Watson, Yeo10
18Cleary, Coates, S. Crichton, Dearden, Fotuaika, Haas, Leniu, Lomax, Mitchell, Nanai, Ponga, Tabuai-Fidow12

The age of a player on his NRL debut is definitely predictive of his rugby league potential, to a high PROBABILITY. Some great players debut late, some lemons debut early, but generally the best players debut earlier than the rest.

Nice table
 
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13,940
The age of a player on his NRL debut is definitely predictive of his rugby league potential, to a high PROBABILITY. Some great players debut late, some lemons debut early, but generally the best players debut earlier than the rest.
"Potential" - a vaguely defined thing, which you're arguing can be definitely measured or predicted...
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
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95,976
"Potential" - a vaguely defined thing, which you're arguing can be definitely measured or predicted...
Over a sufficiently large cohort (e.g. the 40 Origin players from just this year) it is definitely predictive. For any given player it is not. But then, probability applies to everyone. It's certainly difficult for most people to comprehend. You guys are testament to that.
 
Messages
13,940
Over a sufficiently large cohort (e.g. the 40 Origin players from just this year) it is definitely predictive. For any given player it is not. But then, probability applies to everyone. It's certainly difficult for most people to comprehend. You guys are testament to that.
Or... we're testament to how poorly you express your initial points that you attempt to make, given how often you are required to have to elaborate and re-prosecute them?
 
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