Here's the age on NRL debut for each of the 40 players who appeared in this year's Origin series. You will PROBABLY notice that more Origin players debuted in the NRL at 18 than there were 'late bloomers' who debuted after the age of 20:
Age on NRL debut | Origin players | Total by age |
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22 | Capewell, Cherry-Evans, Martin | 3 |
21 | Barnett, Carrigan, Collins, Cotter, Fermor, Luai, Mann | 7 |
20 | A. Crichton, Edwards, Grant, Loiero, To'o, Toia, Utoikamanu, Young | 8 |
19 | Fa'asuamaleaui, Holmes, King, Moses, Munster, Papalii, Robson, Shibasaki, Watson, Yeo | 10 |
18 | Cleary, Coates, S. Crichton, Dearden, Fotuaika, Haas, Leniu, Lomax, Mitchell, Nanai, Ponga, Tabuai-Fidow | 12 |
The age of a player on his NRL debut is definitely predictive of his rugby league potential, to a high PROBABILITY. Some great players debut late, some lemons debut early, but generally the best players debut earlier than the rest.