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Let’s assume Iongi under both scenarios improves the same year on year and that under your ratchet clause theory that they kick in years 3,4,5.Or it could be even higher once the inevitable ratchet clauses kick in.
Even if the first 2 years are identical pay, do you reckon the negotiations for years 3-5 would be more or less than the ratchet clauses? Because logic says with same player performance, the new negotiation is going to be for more.
Thats coupled in with most people would be more inclined to take the more guaranteed money in contract even if it’s lower average dollars per year I.e. if you don’t want to offer him 5 years at $5m then 2 years may cost you $2.2m.
The risk of length as @King-Gutho94 said is it increases the risk he doesn’t improve at the same rate
