NRL Historical Odds

[Panthers_God]

Is there any website that has the historical odds for the NRL games from this season and any seasons beforehand.

To clarify what I am after is what the odds were for each game at kickoff

e.g. Is there a site somewhere where I can look up the odds for the games from round 10?

Looking for historical odds from any bookie.

And if possible the starts that the teams were giving and the the total match points line.

Cheers

 

[Fein]

Mate, your best bet would be to contact the TAB as I would imagine they would have to keep those records being a Government organisation.

 

[Norths Tiger]

I've kept odds (TAB sportsbet) for games since mid 08. They're not kickoff but at about 5pm Friday (for tipping comp reasons).

So if what you want is during this timeframe, then I'll be happy to help.

 

[Willow]

Betting systems. The people making the most money are those selling the system.

Free tip: there's no such thing as a sure bet.

Panthers God, are you looking at selling or using?

 

[Panthers_God]

Hey Norths_Tiger that sounds like what I am looking for. Could you send them to me ? Would be much appreciated.

My last job was doing quant trading so I'm interested in doing some statistics on the NRL odds versus results. Who knows like Willow says it may be pointless but I'm keen to do some work.

 

[Cletus]

Sounds really interesting Panthers. I saw a study in the 90s from a Maq Uni statistician of TAB odds vs. results for Metro races over 18 months. He'd done the percentage return by tote price and I'd love to see your results if you did them, maybe you could put them up in the Punters Forum? I'm sure all the bookies have records of their starting prices, I don't know how helpful they'd be but the TAB would probably be the best bet.

 

[rabs]

try this dude
http://www.oddsportal.com/rugby-league/australia/nrl-2009/results/

 

[Parra]

Historical results with the line (pts start) would be very useful if anyone has a link or an idea

 

[miguel de cervantes]

The TAB exists to make money and it does. The government employs highly skilled mathematicians to keep it that way. Just like lotteries, they are taxes in disguise on people who are not so good at maths.

 

[watatank]

Historical results with the line (pts start) would be very useful if anyone has a link or an idea

Can't you work backwards from the h2h prices?

 

[Parra]

Can't you work backwards from the h2h prices?

maybe I'm too dumb

Let's say you have the H2H prices at 1.38 / 3.28

I want to know the start at ~1.90

 

[watatank]

maybe I'm too dumb

Let's say you have the H2H prices at 1.38 / 3.28

I want to know the start at ~1.90

Hahaha didn't mean it like that. I'm not sure how to do it myself but I'm sure it can be done. For example in Origin the betting markets in recent times would be something like QLD 1.70 NSW 2.10 (or something like that) and then the line would tend to be something like NSW +4.5 or +5.5. That seems rather typical, just thinking there has to be a trend.

 

[Whos Ya Daddy]

Hahaha didn't mean it like that. I'm not sure how to do it myself but I'm sure it can be done. For example in Origin the betting markets in recent times would be something like QLD 1.70 NSW 2.10 (or something like that) and then the line would tend to be something like NSW +4.5 or +5.5. That seems rather typical, just thinking there has to be a trend.

Your line is way off. Try NSW +2.

 

[Whos Ya Daddy]

The TAB exists to make money and it does. The government employs highly skilled mathematicians to keep it that way. Just like lotteries, they are taxes in disguise on people who are not so good at maths.

The TAB just puts up super juiced markets that only sharps can beat long term. Most events are non bets. There is a little more than pure math in setting lines unless you just scrap them off pinnacle.

The lottery is not a tax on people who are bad at maths if you understand the value of the dollar. Winning 10 million for me is basically the same as 100 million. So even though a lottery ticket is -EV the potential payoff and lifestyle change resulting from a win is worth it.

 

[Whos Ya Daddy]

maybe i'm too dumb

let's say you have the h2h prices at 1.38 / 3.28

i want to know the start at ~1.90

8/8.5

 

[Parra]

How did you derive that?

 

[Whos Ya Daddy]

How did you derive that?

I know what the NRL moneyline will translate into at the spread.

Not rocket science.

 

[Parra]

I know what the NRL moneyline will translate into at the spread.

Not rocket science.

Hence my question. How about a formula?

 

[Panthers_God]

I was thinking about implementing something on Betfair... where the odds are much juicier.


Yeah how are lines calculated anyway?

and also ...

How do you translate the odds into implied probability of winning? (An example would be on the betfair market graphs if you inverse it)

 

[Cletus]

I was thinking about implementing something on Betfair... where the odds are much juicier.


Yeah how are lines calculated anyway?

and also ...

How do you translate the odds into implied probability of winning? (An example would be on the betfair market graphs if you inverse it)

To work out the probability from odds you just divide one by the odds, i.e. even money is 1/$2 or 50%, 1/$1.20 is 83.33% etc. If you add up the percentages of all the chances you can work out the vigorish or takeout by dividing 100 by the total percentage.