Dragons v Warriors Previews
NRL.com
WIN Stadium
Sunday 3pm
http://nrl.com/News/Latest/tabid/10244/default.aspx?id=52506
BOTH sides are well aware of the enormity of this game.
Both are barely inside the top eight, locked on 26 competition points, knowing full well a loss is likely to see them fall from the finals zone whereas a win could give them enough breathing space to be around when the trophy is on offer.
The Dragons, currently seventh, are feeling confident after seemingly arresting a mini- slump with a win over the Broncos last weekend, while the Warriors, now eighth, are also smiling after taking down the Sharks, a week after taking down the Broncos and three weeks after beating the Storm.
St George Illawarra are in a slightly better position considering the magnitude of the difference in the two side’s differentials.
The Dragons are currently running with a +67 compared to the Warriors -81 and that alone could see the Kiwi-based side fall as low as 13th if results conspire against them.
Still, should the Dragons lose they could still easily slide as low as 12th.
Five-eighth Jamie Soward is back, which sees 2009 Knights recruit Ben Rogers move to the bench.
Second-rower Ben Creagh also returns to push Jarrod Saffy to the pine.
Lagi Setu comes back from suspension in place of Rangi Chase while Stuart Webb and Dean Young have switched positions; Webb will start at hooker, Young at lock.
For the Warriors, coach Ivan Cleary has kept the faith with last week’s 17 although he has added Sonny Fai and Evarn Tuimavave to a bench of six.
Watch out Dragons: The ‘beast’ Manu Vatuvei is in great form despite having an injury-disrupted season.
It’s a shame Vatuvei is unlikely to match up against Wendell Sailor (both are left wingers) as the clash would be worth the ticket price alone.
(We can always hope for a late switch.) Vatuvei is averaging 132 metres gained a match, has 13 line breaks and nine tries… not bad considering he’s only played 11 matches.
He also has 76 tackle busts which will make him quite a handful to contain.
Watch out Warriors: The kicking game of the Dragons has been far superior to the Warriors’ so far this season and the visitors will need to both improve their own and limit the Dragons’ kickers if they want to prevail.
The Dragons average 660 metres gained a match from the boot, the best in the NRL, while the Warriors are languishing in 15th spot with just 485 metres a match.
The extra yardage from the boot has allowed the Dragons to dictate field position in several games and the Warriors can’t allow Jamie Soward to take control in this fashion.
While the Warriors have some big, metre-eating forwards, if all their energy is spent coming off their line rather than heading deep into Dragons territory, they’ll end up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.
Where it will be won: The battle of the centres.
Of course the forwards will need to do their jobs and the halves will need to be creative but the battle between the Dragons’ duo of Mark Gasnier and Matt Cooper and Warriors pair Brent Tate and Jerome Ropati is set to decide this contest.
Both Gasnier and Cooper showed a return to some form last weekend but Ropati was also dominant for the Warriors against Cronulla.
Containing each other will be paramount to this result. For the Dragons, Gasnier averages 139 metres a match and he has seven line breaks, 79 broken tackles, three try assists and four tries.
Cooper runs 95 metres a match, has six line breaks, 51 broken tackles, three try assists and six tries while for the Warriors Tate averages 130 metres a match, he has six line breaks, 71 broken tackles, four try assists and two tries.
Ropati is running 115 metres a game, has six line breaks, 55 broken tackles, three try assists and seven tries.
Of critical importance is the effective tackle rate of the four. Gasnier is ineffective (either misses or doesn’t contain the defender) on 16.4 per cent of occasions while Cooper struggles on 13.9 per cent of occasions.
The Warriors pair are much worse with Tate at 23.4 per cent and Ropati at 23.8 per cent.
The History: Played 12; Dragons 8, Warriors 4.
The Dragons have won all five matches between the clubs played at WIN Stadium and have won six of the past eight overall but the Warriors won the last encounter 44-16 in New Zealand last season.
Conclusion: The Warriors have been getting the job done in New Zealand but still have problems over in Australia.
They have a 3-7 away record and their last trip to Australia was a loss to South Sydney suggesting they haven’t learnt how to win away when it counts.
Had they won that game they’d be almost assured of a finals berth.
After a run of outs the Dragons showed what they are capable of against Brisbane and if they can replicate that sort of effort then they can get the points here.
It should be a close game, with some solid defence and some classic dry weather football if the rain stays away. Lean to the home side but don’t be overconfident.
Match officials: Referee – Shayne Hayne; Sideline Officials – Alan Shortall & Paul Holland; Video ref – Paul Simpkins.
Televised: Channel 9 – Delayed 4pm; Fox Sports 2 – Delayed 6pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
