18th club, whose next?

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

View attachment 86975
Dot on map ....check

At least Adelaide isn't so far west. If we put a team in Perth then climate change activists will glue themselves to the streets because of the Co2 that is emitted by planes flying to and from Perth.

Save the planet.

 

[Canard]

At least Adelaide isn't so far west. If we put a team in Perth then climate change activists will glue themselves to the streets because of the Co2 that is emitted by planes flying to and from Perth.

Save the planet.

Here's a hot tip for ya.

Planes fly to and from Perth now!

 

[MugaB]

Here's a hot tip for ya.

Planes fly to and from Perth now!

Love that turtle neck/skivvy

 

[MugaB]

hope he watched the game in Darwin last night. Players dripping in sweat after 10 minutes and playing like it was the 89th minute of golden point, completely farked.

Play to the conditions, I hear it snows in Canberra, or it might aswell with that hollow breeze, I don't think the dolphins minded a very handy win in hot sweaty night time conditions, both teams had to suffer the temp had the whole week to prepare for it, I would completely back you if the match was early arvo in sunlight 3pm start, but it wasn't, so suck massive eggs pawwa.... and go P.N.G!!!

 

[The Great Dane]

Play to the conditions, I hear it snows in Canberra, or it might aswell with that hollow breeze, I don't think the dolphins minded a very handy win in hot sweaty night time conditions, both teams had to suffer the temp had the whole week to prepare for it, I would completely back you if the match was early arvo in sunlight 3pm start, but it wasn't, so suck massive eggs pawwa.... and go P.N.G!!!

Yeah because humans are famous for their ability to adapt to radical changes in climate in a week LOL.

 

[sammymills]

For a new team to come in you need tribalism. No use starting one in an AFL city, no one will come to the games (look at melbourne for example, in relation to their success they get barely any support from the locals). I think PNG should be the next place to get a team, at least all the locals would get around it and they would be packed out. We can learn from the mistakes of super rugby how pear shaped it goes when adding teams in cities with little to no support (western force/melbourne rebels both basket cases). Redcliffe has gone well because they have a relatively small stadium with a ready made supporter base.

 

[The Great Dane]

For a new team to come in you need tribalism. No use starting one in an AFL city, no one will come to the games (look at melbourne for example, in relation to their success they get barely any support from the locals). I think PNG should be the next place to get a team, at least all the locals would get around it and they would be packed out. We can learn from the mistakes of super rugby how pear shaped it goes when adding teams in cities with little to no support (western force/melbourne rebels both basket cases). Redcliffe has gone well because they have a relatively small stadium with a ready made supporter base.

Yet another alt.

 

[Canard]

For a new team to come in you need tribalism. No use starting one in an AFL city, no one will come to the games (look at melbourne for example, in relation to their success they get barely any support from the locals). I think PNG should be the next place to get a team, at least all the locals would get around it and they would be packed out. We can learn from the mistakes of super rugby how pear shaped it goes when adding teams in cities with little to no support (western force/melbourne rebels both basket cases). Redcliffe has gone well because they have a relatively small stadium with a ready made supporter base.

Melbourne "has barely any support" shows you're ignorant or just plain stupid.

Do better.

 

[MugaB]

Yeah because humans are famous for their ability to adapt to radical changes in climate in a week LOL.

Obviously parra didn't, after all they are often considered not exactly human

 

[Vlad59]

For a new team to come in you need tribalism. No use starting one in an AFL city, no one will come to the games (look at melbourne for example, in relation to their success they get barely any support from the locals). I think PNG should be the next place to get a team, at least all the locals would get around it and they would be packed out. We can learn from the mistakes of super rugby how pear shaped it goes when adding teams in cities with little to no support (western force/melbourne rebels both basket cases). Redcliffe has gone well because they have a relatively small stadium with a ready made supporter base.

Flaming bro?

 

[MugaB]

Flaming bro?

Fillet mignon?

 

[MugaB]

Melbourne "has barely any support" shows you're ignorant or just plain stupid.

Do better.

Have to agree on this one, they have a good steady stream of supporters now, since even before covid, for a city with 9 AFL teams, to see them still crack the market with 20k+ crowds, that rivals most famous and dyied In the wool Sydney based clubs, who can't even get 18k, they are doing far better than just Nichè,
I could even see a rival team in future especially with the population getting close to 8mil in Victoria alone

 

[Ideas Man Stephen]

According to Google Trends, few Western Australians searched for "National Rugby League" over the last five years.

Interest in subregions on Google Trends is indicated by a measurement between 0 and 100. A score of 100 indicates highest interest. A score of 0 indicates least interest.

For Western Australia, interest was rated at 14. Only South Australia scored a lower interest.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=AU&q=%2Fm%2F01lwy5&hl=en

View attachment 86924View attachment 86925View attachment 86926


Comparing search trends between "National Rugby League" and "Australian Football League" provides grim reading.

For Western Australia and Tasmania the ratio was in favour of AwFuL at a ratio of 89:11. In Victoria it was 91:9. In South Australia it was 92:8. In Northern Territory it was 67:33.

In NSW and Queensland, interest levels favoured rugby league at a ratio of 79:21 and 69:31. ACT trended well at 61:39 in our favour.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=AU&q=%2Fm%2F01lwy5,%2Fm%2F0ckh09&hl=en

Let's worry about keeping the game strong in Queensland, NSW and ACT. NT has potential to become more interested in rugby league.

I wouldn’t expect Google trend data for a state with no NRL representation to be any different than what you have shared. Only a fool would.

The data certainly is not supporting evidence of your profiling of the WA population and the government.

 

[Wb1234]

For a new team to come in you need tribalism. No use starting one in an AFL city, no one will come to the games (look at melbourne for example, in relation to their success they get barely any support from the locals). I think PNG should be the next place to get a team, at least all the locals would get around it and they would be packed out. We can learn from the mistakes of super rugby how pear shaped it goes when adding teams in cities with little to no support (western force/melbourne rebels both basket cases). Redcliffe has gone well because they have a relatively small stadium with a ready made supporter base.

Absolutely

 

[docbrown]

Could some of it be explained by the same people searching more often?

Of course. But in that case you're talking about people who were fringe fans turning into more hardcore fans, which is also a good thing.

We can't break the data down any further without doing a proper survey. But the reality is likely an increasing number hardcore fans as well as an increasing number of new fans. It's also organic growth, not mere population growth.

 

[Centy Coast]

For a new team to come in you need tribalism. No use starting one in an AFL city, no one will come to the games (look at melbourne for example, in relation to their success they get barely any support from the locals). I think PNG should be the next place to get a team, at least all the locals would get around it and they would be packed out. We can learn from the mistakes of super rugby how pear shaped it goes when adding teams in cities with little to no support (western force/melbourne rebels both basket cases). Redcliffe has gone well because they have a relatively small stadium with a ready made supporter base.

Could the PNG locals afford NRL gate prices ?, or would there have to be a special admission price for them to attend NRL games.

 

[docbrown]

Just while I'm explaining google trends to people, this is an important graph to see:



Now just to explain, I use worldwide for this because if I only use Australia it cuts off the NRL support for the Warriors in NZ. Basically NZ, NSW & QLD are for the NRL what VIC, WA & SA are for AFL. That said the trend line for growth is roughly the same for the NRL if you only look at Australia (actually it results in an either bigger growth rate for the NRL but I still think it's important to include NZ).

So look at 2004. The NRL average was 25 to AFL's 49. Basically, people searched for AFL twice as much as NRL. Not surprising to be honest. NRL was only a couple of years out from Super League and it was on a low ebb.

In these 20 years search interest for the AFL has gone from an average of 49 to 80 -- a 63% increase. Population growth was about 35% in that time. So that's an organic increase for the AFL.

However, the NRL has gone from a 25 average in 2004 (it wasn't much higher in 2005 either) to a 76 average in 2003 - so it has TRIPLED the volume of searches for NRL in that time - remember population growth was only 35%. 304% vs 35%.

Now it's not because NRL fans are better at using google than AFL fans (NRL fans are smarter though because they don't watch stringbeans in tank tops fumble and molest each other) or do it more often on an individual basis. It's organic GROWING interest in NRL, particularly growing since 2017, even despite the covid blip which you can also see.

I'd also argue that the peaks in 2023 for AFL weren't far off where they were in 2007 and 2011 for AFL. So basically, the peak interest for AFL today is roughly what it was 13-17 years ago. Their average in 2023 was similar to what it was 2007, 2017 and 2019 too. Make of that what you will.

You can also see the gap between the NRL and AFL has closed to the point where the week by week graph for 2024 looks like this:



Now I may be just a backwater country media statistician and analyst, but that to me looks like two waves lines pretty much in synchronization. Essentially, the interest in AFL and NRL are now the same. If you include the boost from origin and internationals, I'd say overall in Australia and New Zealand, more people are searching for rugby league than AFL.

Now prediction time. If both trend lines continue, the NRL will start to pull away from the AFL and the gap will increase.

 

[Colk]

Just while I'm explaining google trends to people, this is an important graph to see:
View attachment 86991
View attachment 86992

Now just to explain, I use worldwide for this because if I only use Australia it cuts off the NRL support for the Warriors in NZ. Basically NZ, NSW & QLD are for the NRL what VIC, WA & SA are for AFL. That said the trend line for growth is roughly the same for the NRL if you only look at Australia (actually it results in an either bigger growth rate for the NRL but I still think it's important to include NZ).

So look at 2004. The NRL average was 25 to AFL's 49. Basically, people searched for AFL twice as much as NRL. Not surprising to be honest. NRL was only a couple of years out from Super League and it was on a low ebb.

In these 20 years search interest for the AFL has gone from an average of 49 to 80 -- a 63% increase. Population growth was about 35% in that time. So that's an organic increase for the AFL.

However, the NRL has gone from a 25 average in 2004 (it wasn't much higher in 2005 either) to a 76 average in 2003 - so it has TRIPLED the volume of searches for NRL in that time - remember population growth was only 35%. 304% vs 35%.

Now it's not because NRL fans are better at using google than AFL fans (NRL fans are smarter though because they don't watch stringbeans in tank tops fumble and molest each other) or do it more often on an individual basis. It's organic GROWING interest in NRL, particularly growing since 2017, even despite the covid blip which you can also see.

I'd also argue that the peaks in 2023 for AFL weren't far off where they were in 2007 and 2011 for AFL. So basically, the peak interest for AFL today is roughly what it was 13-17 years ago. Their average in 2023 was similar to what it was 2007, 2017 and 2019 too. Make of that what you will.

You can also see the gap between the NRL and AFL has closed to the point where the week by week graph for 2024 looks like this:

View attachment 86993

Now I may be just a backwater country media statistician and analyst, but that to me looks like two waves lines pretty much in synchronization. Essentially, the interest in AFL and NRL are now the same. If you include the boost from origin and internationals, I'd say overall in Australia and New Zealand, more people are searching for rugby league than AFL.

Now prediction time. If both trend lines continue, the NRL will start to pull away from the AFL and the gap will increase.

It also suggests to me that the game could support/sustain a team anywhere in Australia with a suitable population. No more of this garbage “well it won’t work because they all follow fumbleball”

We shouldn’t compare ourselves to the A-League or Super Rugby because it’s now our irrelevant.

 

[Perth Red]

Could the PNG locals afford NRL gate prices ?, or would there have to be a special admission price for them to attend NRL games.

unlikely they could. we saw at the recent test matches the impact on crowds when ticket prices were nearer NRl level (still 25% below NRL prices). The fan based revenue generation is likely to be 50% at least below normal clubs, if not more. It will need to be made up either through govt top up or theyd have to have a massive corporate support levels on par with the top clubs. Given the PNG stadiums facilities that is highly unlikely as well. So Govt teat it is.

 

[docbrown]

It also suggests to me that the game could support/sustain a team anywhere in Australia with a suitable population. No more of this garbage “well it won’t work because they all follow fumbleball”

We shouldn’t compare ourselves to the A-League or Super Rugby because it’s now our irrelevant.

A-League isn't in the same league as NRL & AFL. Super Rugby still has some interest in NZ


Interest in Super Rugby in NZ is what it was in 2008. Whereas the NRL is now as popular in NZ as Super Rugby was at its absolute peak in 2006. The NRL has almost double the interest of Super Rugby and for a longer period of the year. Basically the NRL is number one in NZ.

What will a second team do? Increase the gap between NRL and Super Rugby even further. It won't even be a contest any more.

This is PNG:

Interest in NRL wasn't stagnant prior to 2017, it was more about internet accessibility. Now that internet growth is increasing, so are NRL searches.

What will a team do? Increase the interest further and basically hand the entire market to the NRL (which to be honest it kind of already has).

This is Queensland:

You might go - woh - the AFL was beating NRL in 2004. Yes, it was. That's how bad things were post Super League and with the Lions run of success. Now you can see that the ratio of NRL to AFL interest is double and has been for a good decade and more.

What will a 5th team do? Increase the gap between NRL and AFL even further and allow the NRL to saturate the AFL in QLD similar to what the AFL does to the NRL in Victoria (see further down).

This is WA:

At first you might go - AFL is dominant. You can see an uptick in NRL interest though. But look at 2004 closer:

That is NRL basically DOA in WA. Basically zero interest.

And compare that to 2023:

A ratio of 7 to 43 average - so NRL has 16% the interest that AFL has, even though there's no team.

And people might go - well fumbleball is just too popular. But look at Victoria last year:


As you can see, even though Victoria has the Storm and WA doesn't, NRL in WA actually has a better ratio of interest when compared to the AFL. It's mainly because Victoria has 10 AFL teams (basically saturating the market and the Storm) and WA has 2.

What will a team in Perth do? Increase that interest. I see the market in WA as being far less competitive than Melbourne. You could potentially double that NRL interest.

In SA it's a bit worse than WA and Victoria in terms of ratios and will probably the hardest to crack.