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18th club, whose next?

MugaB

Coach
Messages
13,947
The MAROON Observer

This week in expansion
UN FAIT ACCOMPLI:
The Western Bears have arrived after the partnership between North Sydney and Western Australia was confirmed by the two parties as they seek to become the NRL’s 18th team.

I really wish reporters, or at least whoever drops the quotes in their headlines (which is the detail that 99% of people read), would adopt the pretense of this not being a foregone conclusion. That it feels all but decided makes the entire process about 90% less fun.

More importantly:

NRL clubs are on a collision course with the ARL Commission over plans for them to share in a $60 million licence fee for Papua New Guinea to enter the league in 2028 – and they have a powerful lever in their back pocket.
As an engineer, the back pocket is the worst possible place to install an important lever. You’d sit down and the lever would go off.

Three journalists on the byline and they couldn’t craft a half decent metaphor. Ace up the sleeve is right there and that’s the laziest cliche available. You had to go out of your way to come up with the non-sensical powerful lever in the back pocket.

Leading club bosses believe $60m is nowhere near enough and want an additional $2m a year from 2027 – on top of their current club grant – in return for green-lighting expansion to 20 teams…
Crucially, all 17 of the clubs are off contract at the end of the season because the NRL has been unable to strike a deal on fresh licensing agreements after talks became bogged down in the expansion debate and financial terms for the existing clubs.
No further detail is provided on where negotiations are at (one assumes that, given the example set during the RLPA negotiations, the NRL are months behind where any reasonable organisation would be) or what the potential sticking points between the NRL and clubs might be, other than the aforementioned money (which perhaps is immaterial given the example set during the RLPA negotiations, as V’Landys intends to capitulate to all demands in order to avoid a protracted discussion in which the Controlling Body could be accused of Not Getting Things Done).

We had been given the impression this was more or less resolved when the salary cap was set but evidently not. The renewal of the licencing agreements remains a Powerful Lever in the Back Pocket.

You can fill in the gaps on what I would usually say about how the media have failed you with their poor imagery and lack of attention, least of all to detail, never mind that all the reporting seems to avoid pointing out that the Controlling Body is clearly unsustainably slow and administratively dysfunctional. Surely that won’t have any long-term ramifications for the sport.

Finally, I used the idiom “full support of the board” last week to describe the Newtown’s involvement in the Jetty Jet Jets joint venture. I am told by a source close to the situation that it was not unanimously supported by Newtown’s board but it was popular.

I am sympathetic to Newtown, both because of the philosophy espoused during the CEO’s appearance on Progressive Rugby League and as a potential ally in the fight against national reserve grade homogenising rugby league, and I think the JETS would be fun but it’s hard to see the case being all that compelling, whether for the Jets or the Easts Tigers, at the corporate level.

I feel - but may be wrong - the AFL is invading the Western Corridor is just really hard to get anyone to care about, both on the counts that the division between NRL and AFL is a lot less culturally fraught now than it was when I were a lad, and also the Western Corridor exists but still has large tracts of greenfield to be infilled. It will depend mostly on the broadcasters’ appetite for another SEQ team, which could conceivably be higher in three to five years if the Dolphins get it sorted and the population boom continues, or perhaps not. The fans will be generally apathetic until the Jets win something, which could be any amount of time down the track.

Nonetheless, the options here are more realistic than in PNG and more fully formed than in NZ. You could easily get to 20 with the Western Bears, the South Queensland-Newtown Jets and the Adelaide Firehawks/Bengals/(other big cat or destructive bird? Lion? Jaguar? Noisy miner?).

videotogif_2024.08.28_09.18.40.gif
Players shadow boxing with each other might be my favourite genre of intermission. Unfortunately, we didn’t have space to do a full frame-by-frame breakdown of this scrape but I did confirm:
  • For a change, Brianna Clark was not at the centre of the affray.
  • Jayme Fressard’s attempts to act the villain as she walked off for her well deserved binning was lame. You angry. You real angry. Everyone saw. We all know you angry. How embarrassing.
  • Between Leniu, the Fifita backflip and this, the Roosters are absolutely thrumming with an eldritch loser energy. Get rid of them, they bring nothing to the league.
 
Last edited:

titoelcolombiano

First Grade
Messages
6,152
The MAROON Observer

This week in expansion
UN FAIT ACCOMPLI:


I really wish reporters, or at least whoever drops the quotes in their headlines (which is the detail that 99% of people read), would adopt the pretense of this not being a foregone conclusion. That it feels all but decided makes the entire process about 90% less fun.

More importantly:


As an engineer, the back pocket is the worst possible place to install an important lever. You’d sit down and the lever would go off.

Three journalists on the byline and they couldn’t craft a half decent metaphor. Ace up the sleeve is right there and that’s the laziest cliche available. You had to go out of your way to come up with the non-sensical powerful lever in the back pocket.


No further detail is provided on where negotiations are at (one assumes that, given the example set during the RLPA negotiations, the NRL are months behind where any reasonable organisation would be) or what the potential sticking points between the NRL and clubs might be, other than the aforementioned money (which perhaps is immaterial given the example set during the RLPA negotiations, as V’Landys intends to capitulate to all demands in order to avoid a protracted discussion in which the Controlling Body could be accused of Not Getting Things Done).

We had been given the impression this was more or less resolved when the salary cap was set but evidently not. The renewal of the licencing agreements remains a Powerful Lever in the Back Pocket.

You can fill in the gaps on what I would usually say about how the media have failed you with their poor imagery and lack of attention, least of all to detail, never mind that all the reporting seems to avoid pointing out that the Controlling Body is clearly unsustainably slow and administratively dysfunctional. Surely that won’t have any long-term ramifications for the sport.

Finally, I used the idiom “full support of the board” last week to describe the Newtown’s involvement in the Jetty Jet Jets joint venture. I am told by a source close to the situation that it was not unanimously supported by Newtown’s board but it was popular.

I am sympathetic to Newtown, both because of the philosophy espoused during the CEO’s appearance on Progressive Rugby League and as a potential ally in the fight against national reserve grade homogenising rugby league, and I think the JETS would be fun but it’s hard to see the case being all that compelling, whether for the Jets or the Easts Tigers, at the corporate level.

I feel - but may be wrong - the AFL is invading the Western Corridor is just really hard to get anyone to care about, both on the counts that the division between NRL and AFL is a lot less culturally fraught now than it was when I were a lad, and also the Western Corridor exists but still has large tracts of greenfield to be infilled. It will depend mostly on the broadcasters’ appetite for another SEQ team, which could conceivably be higher in three to five years if the Dolphins get it sorted and the population boom continues, or perhaps not. The fans will be generally apathetic until the Jets win something, which could be any amount of time down the track.

Nonetheless, the options here are more realistic than in PNG and more fully formed than in NZ. You could easily get to 20 with the Western Bears, the South Queensland-Newtown Jets and the Adelaide Firehawks/Bengals/(other big cat or destructive bird? Lion? Jaguar? Noisy miner?).

View attachment 93157
Players shadow boxing with each other might be my favourite genre of intermission. Unfortunately, we didn’t have space to do a full frame-by-frame breakdown of this scrape but I did confirm:
  • For a change, Brianna Clark was not at the centre of the affray.
  • Jayme Fressard’s attempts to act the villain as she walked off for her well deserved binning was lame. You angry. You real angry. Everyone saw. We all know you angry. How embarrassing.
  • Between Leniu, the Fifita backflip and this, the Roosters are absolutely thrumming with an eldritch loser energy. Get rid of them, they bring nothing to the league.
Some good points there.

Just want to add that the AFL "raid" on the Western Corridor of SEQ is about as real as the AFL "raid" on Western Sydney. It's a complete myth kept alive mainly by Shane Richardson in order to scare the NRL into awarding the Tigers a licence to represent the area from 60km away in inner Brisbane.

AFL has a training base there, that's it. The locals are diehard RL people and it's not the AFL's demographic anyway. They are after the Private school inner city disgruntled Union fans, inner city Tesla driving soccer mums and expat Victorians. All of which share the common trait of thinking they are too good for Rugby League.
 

flippikat

Bench
Messages
4,903
Nonetheless, the options here are more realistic than in PNG and more fully formed than in NZ. You could easily get to 20 with the Western Bears, the South Queensland-Newtown Jets and the Adelaide Firehawks/Bengals/(other big cat or destructive bird? Lion? Jaguar? Noisy miner?).
Adelaide *right now* is something that no-one appears to be seriously considering.

A shame, because if some ground-work had been put in over the last decade or two (like what's been done in Perth - from grassroots to regular NRL games there), it could easily have been an option RIGHT NOW.

You're right that the proposals for another SE-Qld club are more fully formed than what we're seeing in NZ - or at least appear to be (a lot of the details on the two Christchurch-based bids are pretty sketchy - at least from what's been made public!) - and PNG is hilarious in it's optimism.

IMO ideally teams 18, 19 and 20 should be Perth, NZ2 & Adelaide - but since Adelaide hasn't been fostered, the safe fall-back of another SEQ club would probably have to do.

With the right preparation starting now, that'd put Adelaide on track for team 21 or 22.. with the other spot truly up in the air.
 

MugaB

Coach
Messages
13,947
Adelaide *right now* is something that no-one appears to be seriously considering.

A shame, because if some ground-work had been put in over the last decade or two (like what's been done in Perth - from grassroots to regular NRL games there), it could easily have been an option RIGHT NOW.

You're right that the proposals for another SE-Qld club are more fully formed than what we're seeing in NZ - or at least appear to be (a lot of the details on the two Christchurch-based bids are pretty sketchy - at least from what's been made public!) - and PNG is hilarious in it's optimism.

IMO ideally teams 18, 19 and 20 should be Perth, NZ2 & Adelaide - but since Adelaide hasn't been fostered, the safe fall-back of another SEQ club would probably have to do.

With the right preparation starting now, that'd put Adelaide on track for team 21 or 22.. with the other spot truly up in the air.
Sooooooo. Pick places that RL is NOT played in... and more SEQ.... got it..
Seriously Png is coming, coz there is a funding push behind it, they are even doing well at qcup grade, imagine a proper pathway and real 1st grade clubs to play against, not just reserve grade...
Fiji can follow the same suit, and nz2 will have to garner a proper look at via the multiple bids that are trying to use the media as its public service or AI imagary, rather than do the due diligence, and work on a proper bid, or at least unify all together to create just one that has all the pros and Nome of the cons
 

flippikat

Bench
Messages
4,903
Sooooooo. Pick places that RL is NOT played in... and more SEQ.... got it..
Not quite..

- Grow the game in NZ (2nd, possibly even 3rd club here)

- Widen the appeal of the game by getting into the last two mainland capitals that don't have teams (Perth & Adelaide), as they're big markets that are un-represented.

- Keep an eye on the market in SE-Queensland that could be lucrative for expansion again, and once the Broncos, Dolphins & Titans have had time to 'bed in' their rivalry & travelling well, add a team from there for an injection of cash/supporters when appropriate. (this soon after adding the Dolphins isn't the right time)

The Government can throw as much money as they want into PNG, but the facts remain that a) it's a third world country (very little disposable income, major security & infrastructure concerns) and b) Government subsidies can always be turned off quickly with a change of Government.
 

Gobsmacked

Bench
Messages
2,682
Because if you want into a club that the existing members have built value into, you have to pay a membership fee, you don't just get a free pass in
We want members that will bring value...if they bring value, why would they pay a fee?
Perth isn't my first choice but they certainly bring value and the more financially sound they are the more value they bring.
I'm not convinced PNG bring value and thier fee is substantial.
 

Gobsmacked

Bench
Messages
2,682
Adelaide *right now* is something that no-one appears to be seriously considering.

A shame, because if some ground-work had been put in over the last decade or two (like what's been done in Perth - from grassroots to regular NRL games there), it could easily have been an option RIGHT NOW.

You're right that the proposals for another SE-Qld club are more fully formed than what we're seeing in NZ - or at least appear to be (a lot of the details on the two Christchurch-based bids are pretty sketchy - at least from what's been made public!) - and PNG is hilarious in it's optimism.

IMO ideally teams 18, 19 and 20 should be Perth, NZ2 & Adelaide - but since Adelaide hasn't been fostered, the safe fall-back of another SEQ club would probably have to do.

With the right preparation starting now, that'd put Adelaide on track for team 21 or 22.. with the other spot truly up in the air.
QLD started with the Broncos, then Cowboys, Gold Coast and now Dolphins. It shows us that the NRL are happy fishing where the fish are !!
Warriors sold out every home game, the first NRL team in history to do so! If NZ 2 is next and an overwhelming success.. I wouldn't rule out Wellington being next.
We have Queensland covered, time to fill in NZ .
Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington- NZ becomes RL territory.
 

BuffaloRules

Coach
Messages
14,787
That's my fear - Perth, PNG, then Brisbane 3 as teams 18-20, then no talk of further expansion for a long time - and no likelihood of any relocation to NZ.

The Warriors will have had a hand in it …regularly talking down NZ2 ..saying the country isn’t ready for it …shortsighted from them …
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
29,772
Rugby league will avoid the most explosive legal battle since the Super League war with the Queensland Rugby League set to shake hands with the NRL on a $100 million bonanza - the biggest funding deal in their history.

This masthead can reveal the QRL will use part of the mega deal to ramp-up a bold plan to deliver a fifth NRL franchise in Brisbane’s western corridor as part of the code’s march towards 20 teams.

The QRL and NSWRL have been at loggerheads with the NRL for a year.

QRL boss Ben Ikin had slammed League Central over alleged “pork barrelling” and the state bodies were set for a legal showdown with the NRL in the NSW Supreme Court on Friday, September 13 - the start of the NRL finals series. That legal listing is still live, but the war could be over within days.

The state bodies have reached an agreement in principle, with the QRL poised to ink a bumper four-year deal that will inject mega millions into grassroots, development - and an expansion masterplan to bring another NRL team to Queensland.

The funding bonanza will run until the end of 2027 ahead of talks for the code’s next TV rights deal from 2028.

The Western Bears and Papua New Guinea are slated to enter the NRL as the 18th and 19th teams in 2027-28, but the QRL’s $100m war chest could see the Sunshine State blow Christchurch bids out of the water for a 20th licence.

Rugby league’s bitter civil war during the Super League ructions of 1995 almost killed the code, but QRL chairman Bruce Hatcher is determined to avoid an expensive and painful legal brouhaha.

“We’ve got an agreement in principle with the NRL so hopefully we’re close to signing a deal,” Hatcher said. “A lot of deals can fall over at the last minute, but once it’s signed, we’ve got a legally-binding contract in place and there shouldn’t be any need to have any differences of opinion anymore.

“Once the individual documents are signed by New South Wales and Queensland, the legal action will cease to be on-foot. “We’re all aiming to get it done by next week. “This deal put us significantly in front of where we have been the last couple of years. “We have some real certainty. “It enables us to do a lot of things. We are in the business of rugby league and all we want to see is rugby league thriving in Queensland. “I am passionate about young kids having an opportunity and having a go.”

That extends to the western-corridor of Brisbane’s bid to become Queensland’s fifth NRL team alongside the Broncos, Cowboys, Titans and the Dolphins.

The NRL is exploring the prospect of adding a second New Zealand team as the 20th club, but Hatcher and QRL boss Ben Ikin are adamant Brisbane’s western corridor cannot be ignored.

The AFL has identified the western corridor, encompassing Ipswich and Toowoomba, as Queensland’s next growth corridor and believes it can dethrone the NRL by winning the hearts and minds of that region.

Ikin and Hatcher are acutely aware of the AFL threat. The new funding deal will allow the QRL to allocate funds to the region, with Dolphins super coach Wayne Bennett adamant Brisbane’s western corridor is ready for an NRL team.

In June, more than 8000 fans packed into Toowoomba Sports Ground to greet the Queensland Origin side at their annual fan day.

“That region would be an ideal area for expansion,” Bennett said.

“It’s such a rich nursery and the game is looking to build better and stronger pathways and that western corridor of Brisbane into Toowoomba is huge. “We can’t underestimate the threat of the AFL.

“There’s enough kids out there to play both sports but it’s always been a strong rugby league area and the AFL have been very aggressive in targeting that area.

“They are putting a lot of funding into that region. “We can’t ignore the western corridor.”

The new deal will tip at least $25 million annually into the QRL’s coffers, funds Hatcher says can help rugby league combat the AFL’s incursion as he called for the NRL to add a new franchise in the west.

“To create new franchises we have to get the pathways right. Funding is vital,” Hatcher said.

“I think the western corridor is a better option than a second team in New Zealand.

“The area has a great history. We took a big punt by bringing the Toowoomba Clydesdales into our (Queensland Cup) competition and it’s great to see the region being recognised by the ARL Commission as a massive growth area.”
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
29,772
Qrl and nswrl are a bunch of muppets

Harchet was against the dolphins in the nrl

just because the qrl has more money has zero impact on the expansion decision.
 

flippikat

Bench
Messages
4,903
The Warriors will have had a hand in it …regularly talking down NZ2 ..saying the country isn’t ready for it …shortsighted from them …
The thing is, NZ 2 isn't a hammer-blow to the Warriors as much as it's a hammer-blow to rugby union.

Especially if it's based in Christchurch, where active Warriors fans are probably few & far between.

Maybe what we need is a few more Australian sports leagues to show interest in NZ - either adding NZ teams (as A-league have with Auckland) or taking some games over here. Then that might actually spur the NRL to make NZ expansion a dead-set locked-in priority.
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
29,772
The thing is, NZ 2 isn't a hammer-blow to the Warriors as much as it's a hammer-blow to rugby union.

Especially if it's based in Christchurch, where active Warriors fans are probably few & far between.

Maybe what we need is a few more Australian sports leagues to show interest in NZ - either adding NZ teams (as A-league have with Auckland) or taking some games over here. Then that might actually spur the NRL to make NZ expansion a dead-set locked-in priority.
Warriors selling out games means another team is needed
 
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