2004 - Season in Preview

[meltiger]

You better not say 16th :evil:

 

[meltiger]

ADELAIDE CROWS


Potential Finishing Range

Anywhere between 1st and 12th during the H & A season.

Predicted Finish

4th

BIG call by the way.

Adelaide are on their way down mate. They seem to recruiting really badly atm.

 

[CyberKev]

BIG call by the way.

Adelaide are on their way down mate. They seem to recruiting really badly atm.

I think that both Adelaide & Hawthorn have recruited dismally over the past couple of seasons, but I'm not expecting the fallout from this to hit home until 2005/2006.

I thought long and hard on the Crows, and it wasn't that long ago that I had them pencilled-in for 10 or 11. Lets just say while I'm not entirely convinced by the Crows, I'm less excited by the sides that would have to surge up to take their place.

CyberKev

 

[CyberKev]

PORT ADELAIDE POWER

What do they have going for them…

I don’t think it was a fluke situation that Port Adelaide was able to win last season’s minor premiership, whilst simultaneously recording the worst injury record of any side in the competition. There is an evenness among the club’s playing list that ensures that the team can better absorb losses to players without losing competitiveness than most, and it would also be fair to say that the club isn’t saddled with the key player dependencies that can cripple many opponents. Which is not to contend that the side is devoid of gun footballers, of course, with Tredrea & Wanganeen staple ingredients of recent All-Australian outfits. The former, in particular, will provide the Power with much of its momentum throughout the 2004 season, and I am gambling on the pride of the side to ensure that this momentum will again see the club highly placed on the table come season’s end. The Power need also be respected for their skill level, which can overwhelm sides when on song. It is a testament to the stability and steadiness of this squad that Port has (in pure win/loss terms) performed as well as Brisbane has over the past 3 years. Whether they finally succeed in complementing this steadiness with a much needed surge of ruthlessness come finals time, however, is very much a matter of conjecture.

What is working against them…

Port are almost always a sound physical proposition, but finals football is very much a psychological stress test, and it is this examination that the club has failed dismally over the past few seasons. The need to toughen-up mentally and devise a secondary game plan for finals implementation would have preoccupied the coaching staff over the summer, but if they couldn’t produce the required blueprint over previous years, why should they prove any more successful this time around? Also, while I have lauded the club for its evenness and steadiness, it would nevertheless have been pained to lose a player of Nick Stevens calibre over the silly season. His absence from the midfield will be compounded by another year spent sans Josh Francou, with the luckless centre player undergoing a second successive knee reconstruction earlier this season. Sadly, for the Adelaide faithful, while it is easy to see the club putting in another year of strong H & A performances, it is equally as easy to see them failing to adapt to the pressure cooker that is the finals cauldron (again!)

Potential Finishing Range

Anywhere in the final 8.

Predicted Finish

Minor Premiers but still likely to miss the GF!

 

[CyberKev]

RICHMOND TIGERS

What do they have going for them...

First and foremost, a midfield that (when at full strength) would surely be second only to Brisbane's. Kane Johnson was a superb pick-up last year, and Nathan Brown should be equally so, with the latter offering the extra dimension of dangerous forward play. On top of this, the Tigers still have the experienced and underrated Wayne Campbell and classy youngster Mark Coughlan to ensure plenty of forward drive. There would be more formidable forward structures going around, but Richardson & Ottens still command enough talent to prove crucial in a game or two. Talented youngsters aren't laid on thick at Tigerland, but Rodan, Newman & Coughlan are better than average and should have the maturity and determination to propel forward from here. The Tigers finished last season dismally, but it is still worth remembering that they had managed to climb to second with a 6-2 record by round 8. This beautifully underscores the seemingly eternal enigma that is Richmond, and it is possible that their unpredictable style may prove more effective across 2004 providing the injury gods are kind.

What is working against them

It wasn't that long ago that the club was waxing lyrical about its $1.5 million expenditure on coaching staff, but with the benefit of hindsight it would be fair to say that this trumpeting was much ado about nothing. Now entering his fifth season at the helm, Spud Frawley still looks and sounds as amateurish as he did in his debut season. Its not a crime to state the obvious, but it would nonetheless not surprise to hear Frawley comment that the coaching staff had crunched the data bigtime to arrive at the breathless conclusion that the Tiger forwards would most likely survive out another day provided they strictly devoted themselves to inhaling and exhaling air from their lungs! The coach aside, their is a lean look about the team's defence that will leave them disturbingly vulnerable to sides with any semblance of a competent forward structure. This leanness is largely refelcted in the overall list, with the club's top seven or eight footballers being of substantial quality, while the remainder of the squad tails away markedly. This increases the pressure on the midfielders to stay healthy, and for Richo and Ottens to play out of their skins on most occasions. There was much talk about Richo being traded over the silly season, but nowadays he is pretty much like the ageing car that breaks down regularly, but still does okay in getting you from A to B. Effectively he was of more value to Richmond than he was to anyone else, so I think they made the correct choice in keeping him (assuming they had a choice). Ottens can certainly play a bit, but its also fair to say that he is well short of claims a few years back that he would become the best footballer in the comp.

Potential Finishing Range

Anywhere between 7th and 16th during the H & A season.

Predicted Finish

13th

 

[meltiger]

RICHMOND TIGERS

What is working against them

The coach aside, their is a lean look about the team's defence that will leave them disturbingly vulnerable to sides with any semblance of a competent forward structure.

I tend to agree here mate, Gaspar has hidden alot of problems for a long time. Having Dutch and Benny Gale back there in 2001 helped out alot but whilst Weller is an ok player, he is not going to have the same impact those two had in 01. Gas won't be the same player he was returning from injury and once you move beyond that, the backline is very lean. Andy Kellaway is good but no superstar, Zantuck went ok last year but from the way Frawls is talking he wants Ty to play up front more this year. The midfield is going to have to fire because the likes of Essendon, St Kilda and Brisbane will ruthlessly tear them apart if there is a heavy flow of supply given to their forwards.

Ottens can certainly play a bit, but its also fair to say that he is well short of claims a few years back that he would become the best footballer in the comp.

This I disagree with however, when given consistent time on the ball during this years pre-season Otto has dominated. You have to remember mate, 2001, he had a sensational season, 2002 he was homesick (No excuse) and his form suffered because of it. Last year he was injured and only played so much because the team was in trouble.

Now is Ottens time and if he plays the majority of the season on the ball (Which with Richo playing out fo the goalsquare and a half forward setup, should happen) ..... he will win the Brownlow.

Brown is going to be a sensational pickup and will be worth every penny they are paying Dr Pink (Richmond are idiots) Although I have to concede to being a bit biased there. With the draft and trading rules it's not often you get to see your club recruit one of your favourite players from another club, so to say I am thrilled Richmond have Nathan is an understatement He's always been one of my fav players to watch.

Richo has kicked 13 goals in two practice matches and whilst the description in yesterdays paper was really quite suitable "He often kicks like a drunk" lmao ... I think we are going to see a very different Matty this year.

I'm not 100% sure where they are at to be honest and not prepared to make a full prediction on where they will finish. We'll see where they are at on Friday night. If Collingwood spanks them, it's likely to be another lean season at Punt Road

 

[CyberKev]

I'm not 100% sure where they are at to be honest and not prepared to make a full prediction on where they will finish. We'll see where they are at on Friday night. If Collingwood spanks them, it's likely to be another lean season at Punt Road

wtf??!!

If there was one person that I thought I could safely pen-in to come at me breathing fire, it was you, Old Son!

Have you gone soft, or are you just saving it away so that it could be used to greater effect should the Tigers enjoy an unexpected form surge?

CyberKev

 

[CyberKev]

ST KILDA SAINTS

What do they have going for them...

If the wider footballing media is to be believed, it is more a question of what don't they have going for them! After years of mediocrity, financial struggles, and dismal recruiting strategies, the Saints appear to have finally hit the motherload with a complement of young stars that have no peer in the broader competition. Welcome to the AFL 21st century style, if you're woeful enough for long enough eventually you will rule the world... Maybe... The Saints certainly have the ideal mix of smalls and talls to do the job, and it would appear to be only a matter of when, not if, they conquer the comp. Up forward, the Saints have a respectable arsenal, with the classy Nick Reiwoldt well complimented by goal sneak Milne, and very capable old hands Hammill & Gehrig. Down back, the Saints can also cover opposing talls with the likes of Kozitschke & Luke Penny, whilst old stager Robert Harvey, and the very underrated Stephen Powell lead the charge from the midfield. When you throw-in up and coming onballers like Lenny Hayes, Luke Ball & Nick Del Santo you have a midfield with its best ahead of it, but already among the top five in the game. I haven't even mentioned last year's number 1 draft pick, Brendon Goddard, or the exciting and unpredictable, Xavier Clarke, but I've nonetheless painted a picture that couldn't be any prettier were it in high-definition digital! The only thing to add is that the side enters the season in fabulous touch, having finished off 2003 on a roll prior to taking out the Wizard Cup preseason comp.

What is working against them...

The Saints have the main pieces of the jigsaw in place, but it is unlikely that they'll be able to complete it either this year or next. The overall youth of their squad means that the team still has a lot of improving to do in terms of foot skills and upper body strength. It is also true that the side would be among the bottom four in the comp when it comes to ruck strength, and this is a not inconsiderable assett to possess, particularly in the big matches. The viability of Grant 'Cornflakes' Thomas in the head coaching role will never be well received in many circles, but he'll rightly remain entrenched as long as results continue on the up and up. Other than these things, the biggest X-Factor surrounding the Saints will be their capacity to make a good start to the season, in the face of the rape scandal. It is always good for the confidence to get away to a flier, but this is of particular import where young sides are concerned.

Potential Finishing Range

Anywhere from 3rd to 10th in the H & A season.

Predicted Finish

8th

 

[CyberKev]

SYDNEY SWANS

What do they have going for them

A lot of momentum, which is a handy element to have at your back in the great game. Season 2003 proved a very unexpected success for coach Roos, and while some would predict a down year for the Swans to balance this out, I think they can perform strongly again in 2004. In many ways, the Swans remind me in no small way of Collingwood, which had a similarly stellar 2002, which they followed up with a second GF in 2003 just to spite the knockers. Sydney mirrors the Magpies in that it is a predominantly blue-collar side that relies heavily on a laudable mix of speed and workrate to make its mark on the comp. The Swans impressed often throughout the previous season with their unerring capacity to grind out games that appeared lost during the opening quarter(s). Not that the side is entirely devoid of talent, of course, with new Brownlow medallist, Adam Goodes, former Magpie Nick Davis, nippy youngster, Adam Schneider, Leo Barry & Michael O'Loughlin standouts in any company. Then there is the incorrigable, Barry Hall, who was always overstated and overrated at St Kilda, but has stepped up a notch or several to be a gun player in the Harbor City. It was interesting that Umpires Boss, Jeff Gieschen should have gone out of his way to concede that Bazza had been poorly dealt with by umpires during 2003, which should mean that a lot more goes his way this time around. Sydney also have a home ground advantage, which may not rival those enjoyed in Brisbane & Perth, but is still more than handy.

What is working against them...

Many sides in the comp have greater levels of overall talent than the Swans, which may hurt them again in some of the bigger matches. It is also true that the Swans defence is not as fearsome as a few others, although it still performed competently in 2003. Of perhaps greater concern, is the reality that the Swans have one of the lesser midfields in the competition, which is a central reason behind their pressing need to constantly exploit pace and workrate in matches. Also, while the talls they do possess are, by and large, quality ones, it would only require a couple of them to fall over for the side to be caught out in this area. Overall, however, the main thing working against this side (in most minds) is the potential for them to fade due to opposing sides having "worked out" their game plan. Its true that the side will be given greater respect from opposing sides as a consequence of their exploits last season, but its still a long bow to suggest they are incapable of handling it.

Potential Finishing Range

Anywhere in the Final Eight.

Predicted Finish

3rd

 

[meltiger]

I'm not 100% sure where they are at to be honest and not prepared to make a full prediction on where they will finish. We'll see where they are at on Friday night. If Collingwood spanks them, it's likely to be another lean season at Punt Road

wtf??!!

If there was one person that I thought I could safely pen-in to come at me breathing fire, it was you, Old Son!

Have you gone soft, or are you just saving it away so that it could be used to greater effect should the Tigers enjoy an unexpected form surge?

CyberKev

You know if they end up 6-2 again I'll get all excited Give me some time!

I'm just not real keen on the Pies this year and with the players they have out I will NOT be impressed if we get flogged on Friday given the Tigers are virtually at full strength!

 

[CyberKev]

WEST COAST EAGLES

What do they have going for them...

A huge home ground advantage is the most pertinent pro factor that can be raised when assessing the Eagles. Fortress Subi can be a soul destroying place for visiting sides, and has been of crucial import to the blue & yellows in enabling them to scrape into the eight over the past two seasons. I wouldn't count on them losing too many (if any) games on home soil again this season. The West Coast midfield, including the likes of Ben Cousins, Chad Fletcher & Daniel Kerr will service the side well and, despite the lack of overt height up front, the team can kick solid scores. Chris Judd will be playing wide with amid this grouping, and if he fires then he brings a devastating attacking dimension to the side that no opponent can match. This is a very speedy outfit that likes large grounds and can exploit the space of Subiaco like no other. It will again rely heavily on free running, soft ball movement, which can tear sides apart in a single quarter when performed effectively. The team is also one of the minority of clubs that can say it is well positioned in the ruck, which means that the Eagles should entertain more possession than they give away in 2004.

What is working against them...

Several factors... While the team's love of the softball is often rewarded during the H & A season, it is clearly a liability come the business end of the season, and Worsfold will clearly have endeavoured to get a greater desire for the hardball into the side over the summer. West Coast has had a bit of turnover in recent years, which may be a reason behind the side's overall lack of maturity in terms of winning games regularly away from Subi. They will certainly get better in this area, although it wouldn't surprise to see the club struggle to win more than 1-2 games on the road in 2004. I've already stated that West Coast's small forward structure performed surprisingly well through much of 2003, but it was a structure that could never win the club a final and they'll thus be hoping that the tall youngsters infused into the squad will take the necessary step up in the months ahead. The Eagles will also be needing Judd to play strong for an entire season, having suffered on account of his marked form fades during the second half of both 2002 & 2003. This side has clear talent & promise, but lacks overall team balance and should be kept safe until it can prove its bona fides outside of WA.

Potential Finishing Range

Anywhere between 3rd & 12th during the H & A season.

Predicted Finish

9th

 

[CyberKev]

WESTERN BULLDOGS

What do they have going for them...

A desperate desire to atone for last season, where they collected a wooden spoon that really should have belonged to Carlton. The talk around the club has certainly been a lot more positive than it had been late last season, and it is heartening to see the team entering a tough new year in the right frame of mind. The side has added a few quality players to the list, including Hawk key position player Jade Rawlings, teenage sensation Adam Cooney, and exciting Docker Stephen Koops. Rawlings should add versatility to the side with his ability to play up and back, although it is suggested that he will be doing considerably more of the former. The Hounds will be happy to welcome back champion skipper, Chris Grant, who was a huge loss last season due to a knee injury. It is also likely that we can expect the Dogs to revert to a more physical game than we became accustomed to last season, wherein worrying doubts emerged over the sides capacity to handle the rough stuff. I would also expect for the Bulldogs to be solid in the ruck, and for quality youngsters Murphy & McMahon to continue their exciting development.

What's working against them...

Enthusiasm is all good and fine, but it tends to abate markedly after a few losses. The Bulldogs are brave, but they are a deeply troubled club both on the field and off. Much has been made of the hurdles they face in trying to compete with other clubs while being forced to operate well within their salary cap. It cannot be healthy for the team to maintain morale when the talk of the club always centres around huge debts and inability to attract membership. On the field, the Hounds have put a lot of stock in Jade Rawlings, who is a fine footballer, but no sensation as a key forward. For mine, Rawlings is best suited to CHB, but this position appears earmarked for the returning skipper. The summer loss of star midfielder/forward, Nathan Brown will also have considerable impact upon the team's performances. There is already a dearth of pure talent around the place and losses of that magnitude have to hurt like hell. In essence, the club lacks talent, depth, and viable height, which is a nasty recipe for a protracted season of doom to mirror the last one. Its hard to see how the side can move forward with the cattle it has.

Potential Finishing Range

Anywhere in the bottom four.

Predicted Finish

Wooden Spooner

 

[CyberKev]

You know if they end up 6-2 again I'll get all excited Give me some time!

I'm just not real keen on the Pies this year and with the players they have out I will NOT be impressed if we get flogged on Friday given the Tigers are virtually at full strength!

Fair enough...

Its just not like you to be so downbeat so early in the season

I share your concern about game 1. Melbourne have unexpectedly busted us up the last two seasons in the opener, and it has effectively set the tone for the season's ahead

I think the Pies/Tigers clash will be better than most expect, although (full strength or otherwise) I'll probably have to plumb for the woods.

CyberKev

 

[meltiger]

You know if they end up 6-2 again I'll get all excited Give me some time!

I'm just not real keen on the Pies this year and with the players they have out I will NOT be impressed if we get flogged on Friday given the Tigers are virtually at full strength!

Fair enough...

Its just not like you to be so downbeat so early in the season

I share your concern about game 1. Melbourne have unexpectedly busted us up the last two seasons in the opener, and it has effectively set the tone for the season's ahead

I think the Pies/Tigers clash will be better than most expect, although (full strength or otherwise) I'll probably have to plumb for the woods.

CyberKev

We'll win & for the record I did go breathing fire on your ridiculously ignorant comments on one Brad Ottens



Wheres the tips thread? I'm leaving work for the pub for pre-game bevvies at 12:30 so it better be up by then ;-) Just gotta make sure I save some $$$ for the big game at OP on Sunday lol