2005 Premiership Betting Market

[borat]

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/14/1097607375461.html

Early market for grand final has Dogs barking
By John Schell
October 15, 2004

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The Bulldogs have opened as favourites to win next year's NRL grand final, with Bill Hurley's Sportsbook.com.au releasing the first premiership market yesterday. After taking this year's decider against the Roosters, the Dogs are at $3 to defend their crown.

"Apart from losing Steve Price for next season, the Bulldogs will have pretty much the same team next year as they had when winning the premiership a couple of weeks ago," Sportsbook's Larry Hawke said.

The Roosters are at $6, but Hawke thinks they are a team to be avoided.

"Looking at their recent record in grand finals, it's hard to back them," he said. "They have won one and lost three. They are chokers. And as long as Chris Walker is out there, they cannot win a premiership."

St George Illawarra are third in betting, with Hawke saying: "They are the value at $9. They have a good team."

As for the others, Hawke said: "Brisbane will not figure, the players there are getting too old. North Queensland are the team on the rise and Parramatta will go better with their new signings."

Market to win grand final
$3 Bulldogs
$6 Sydney Roosters
$9 St George Illawarra
$10 Penrith
$12 Brisbane, North Queensland
$15 Newcastle
$17 Melbourne, Parramatta
$21 Cronulla
$26 New Zealand Warriors
$51 Canberra, Manly, Wests Tigers
$126 South Sydney
Market supplied by Bill Hurley's Sportsbook.com.au



I can't argue with any of that. I am sure many others can but IMO this field is spot on.

 

[wittyfan]

$17 for Parramatta with Brian Smith as coach? A bit generous. :lol:

And $26 for the Warriors? They were flat out finishing ahead of Souths this year.

 

[El Diablo]

Centrebet have it a bit different

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS 3.00

SYDNEY ROOSTERS 6.00

ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA 9.00

NORTH QLD COWBOYS 10.00

PENRITH PANTHERS 11.00

BRISBANE BRONCOS 13.00

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS 15.00

PARRAMATTA EELS 15.00

MELBOURNE STORM 16.00

CRONULLA SHARKS 23.00

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS 26.00

CANBERRA RAIDERS 41.00

MANLY SEA EAGLES 67.00

WESTS TIGERS 67.00

SOUTH SYDNEY 126.00

 

[JW]

Here's one I came across for a comparison. I think this is centrebet's odds.

$3.00 Bulldogs
$6.50 Sydney Roosters
$9.00 Penrith
$9.00 St George Illawarra
$10.00 North Queensland
$13.00 Brisbane
$13.00 Newcastle
$15.00 Melbourne
$16.00 Parramatta
$21.00 Cronulla
$26.00 New Zealand
$34.00 Canberra
$51.00 Manly
$51.00 Wests Tigers
$101.00 South Sydney

Cheers.

 

[JW]

lol, beat me to it El D, although those odds look different.

 

[Stranger]

The Roosters are at $6, but Hawke thinks they are a team to be avoided.

"Looking at their recent record in grand finals, it's hard to back them," he said. "They have won one and lost three. They are chokers. And as long as Chris Walker is out there, they cannot win a premiership."

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

And $26 for the Warriors? They were flat out finishing ahead of Souths this year.

Cant see them making 8 but will come around 10th

 

[borat]

So if you compare the two markets they are still pretty close:-

$3 Bulldogs $3.00 Bulldogs
$6 Sydney Roosters $6.50 Sydney Roosters
$9 St George Illawarra $9.00 Penrith
$10 Penrith $9.00 St George Illawarra
$12 Brisbane $10.00 North Queensland
$12 North Queensland $13.00 Brisbane
$15 Newcastle $13.00 Newcastle
$17 Melbourne $15.00 Melbourne
$17 Parramatta $16.00 Parramatta
$21 Cronulla $21.00 Cronulla
$26 New Zealand Warriors $26.00 New Zealand
$51 Canberra $34.00 Canberra
$51 Manly $51.00 Manly
$51 Wests Tigers $51.00 Wests Tigers
$126 South Sydney $101.00 South Sydney

 

[RainMan]

Have they got the odds to make the eight as well?

 

[Shaun Hewitt]

jeez, may jus put 2 dollars on souths and warriors. Slim chance on either party, not a loss and a huge gain

 

[steaming stormer]

I actually think the Warriors could be the surprise next year. If Kemp can coach (and it is a big IF), they have a side to threaten. With Price and Wiki, their forwards look impressive, and we know they have talent in the backs when they have the right attitude. Big challenge for Kemp, but I think they should make the 8

 

[RainMan]

I actually think the Warriors could be the surprise next year. If Kemp can coach (and it is a big IF), they have a side to threaten. With Price and Wiki, their forwards look impressive, and we know they have talent in the backs when they have the right attitude. Big challenge for Kemp, but I think they should make the 8

If anything it will be his assistant coaches who get all the plaudits.

 

[Red Bear]

Im gunna put 5 bucks on Souths at 126, return of 630 bucks!!!

 

[Stranger]

you just wasted $5.

If the defensive coach gets manly working they could be a threat. Great attacking power at the moment sad, sad defence

 

[oxenham]

Why are Melbourne constantly around 8 or 9 in the betting stakes. The Storm turned good last year and their odds basically stayed the same same again this year. But when the Cowboys have 1 good season out of 10 they all of sudden sky rocket to 4 or 5, well its got me beat :? Also (even though Knights will be getting Johns back and Parra got a few good players) why are Parra and Newcastle up so high. Anyway..... #-o

 

[JW]

Melbourne and Brisbane very good value with Centrebet's odds IMO.

Cheers.

 

[borat]

Why are Melbourne constantly around 8 or 9 in the betting stakes. The Storm turned good last year and their odds basically stayed the same same again this year. But when the Cowboys have 1 good season out of 10 they all of sudden sky rocket to 4 or 5, well its got me beat :? Also (even though Knights will be getting Johns back and Parra got a few good players) why are Parra and Newcastle up so high. Anyway..... #-o

I think this one is pretty easy to answer. The size of the supporter base would play a big part. Supporters will always favour their own team and the more of them out there the more bets, the bigger the potential loss for the betting agency and hence reflected in the odds.

So I reckon when they set the odds they are not just looking at who will actually win it but where the majority of the bets will come from.

 

[The Colonel]

Newcastle is fairly easy - Johns is back and they are a different side with him there.

I assume they are banking on the Eels coming good with the players that have been selected. If they had them out too far they could stand to lose a lot of money if the potential of the squad is realised, no matter how unlikely it is next year.

 

[melon....]

Larry Hawke makes a good point about The Roosters...then he goes and loses the last drop of credibility by rating teh Dragons as a chance...for f@rks sake...How can you learn from the Roosters 2 bad GF shows, and not learn from 20 years of bullcrap from Kogarah?

 

[Shaun Hewitt]

Next season is a VERY hard one to pick.

 

[borat]

Larry Hawke makes a good point about The Roosters...then he goes and loses the last drop of credibility by rating teh Dragons as a chance...for f@rks sake...How can you learn from the Roosters 2 bad GF shows, and not learn from 20 years of bullcrap from Kogarah?

Actually larry is a very, very good judge of form