I'm picking 18-12 or thereabouts to Oz and it will be a cracker of a game.
NZ having the Luke-Foran-Johnson-RTS spine means they give away far less than usual against the Smith-Cronk-Thurston-Boyd combo. But the latter is still better, just so many games together.
Aussies have it over the Kiwis in the backs. Massive power in Ferguson and Dugan, and skill/speed in Chambers, Boyd, and Holmes. In contrast, the Kiwis are missing a strike center (Not sure why Whare in over Fusitua), DWZ is inexperienced and not absolute top-shelf, while Whare is world-class but hasn't got back to his best since coming back from long-term injury. Rapana is great, but inexperienced at international level and these combos.
Kiwis have a more powerful, dynamic pack, but Australia's is always strong and should have enough smarts, toughness, and power to be close to parity with the kiwi pack. Especially with Smith guiding them.
And unless the kiwi pack solidly dominates the oz pack (possible although I think unlikely) the oz spine will dismantle NZ through the backline.
NZ will need Tapua, Taumololo, and Bromwich to bring their A class power running game for kiwis to dominate. Rest will be role players and will need to defend hard. Nelson Asofa-Solomona could well have been the difference maker.
If you don't like international footy, give yourself an uppercut!
