There are bad years, there are worse years and there’s what happened to the Dragons in 2019. Considered contenders for the top four at the beginning of the season, St George Illawarra underwent a slow, steady and almost uninterrupted degradation that ended with them in 15th spot and copping the brunt of a fan revolt, much of which was aimed squarely at coach Paul McGregor.
Trying to balance Corey Norman and Gareth Widdop blew up in their faces. They signed Norman in an effort to prepare for this year, when Widdop would depart for Warrington, but instead the English Test star missed most of the season with a shoulder injury and while Norman had his moments there just weren’t enough of them.
As such, the Dragons of 2020 feel a world away from premiership contention. It’s not that their roster is especially bad – the finals should still be a realistic goal – but they have dropped down a tier. With the exception of 2018, they’re about where they’ve always been under McGregor. They are too good to bottom out completely, but not good enough to take the extra step.
In his four-and-a-half seasons in charge, McGregor has done plenty of good things and helped the Dragons to some stirring wins. If things broke differently in 2018, they may well have made the grand final. But rugby league is a results business, and the Dragons just haven’t had enough of them. They won’t be terrible in 2020, but they might not be that great either, and that could be enough for the club to throw a bone to the howling mob and send McGregor out to pasture.
THE TEAM
St George Illawarra’s strength is still their forward pack. Even with their many ailments last year, Tyson Frizell, James Graham, Tariq Sims and Paul Vaughan all played Test or Origin football last year, and Cam McInnes continued to prove he’s one of the top hookers in the league.
Throw in the underrated Blake Lawrie, the promising Jackson Ford and the returning Trent Merrin and it’s a formidable group even without Jack de Belin. Merrin in particular has impressed in the pre-season – if he can regain even a bit of his best form he’ll be a fine addition.
Issac Luke’s best football might be behind him, but there’s still some blood to be extracted from that stone - at the very least, he’s as good an injury replacement for McInnes as any club could hope for.
Jason Saab is an exciting prospect, and the return of Jordan Pereira from a neck injury is a major boost. Pereira’s workrate and ability to break tackles was sorely missed after he went down last season, and given the lack of metres and strike the Dragons endured from their wingers last year the promising Saab could be a breakout player. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Saab near the top of the tryscoring list at season’s end, given his aerial ability and the NRL’s new interpretation around fielding attacking kicks.
From all reports, Zac Lomax looked very comfortable in his debut outing at fullback last weekend, and if he can develop his ball-playing to match his ball-running he could be a real success at the back. It might not happen overnight, but the Dragons need to patient with it.
Centre is a different story. Nobody would say Euan Aitken and Tim Lafai aren’t talented, but neither had a season to remember in 2019. Lafai continued his maddening habit of following a good season with a very ordinary one, and while Aitken was more consistent he could not recapture the form that propelled him into Origin conversations the year before.
Much will fall on Ben Hunt and Norman, two talented players that didn’t quite fit together in their first full season as a halves combination.
Hunt cops plenty of stick, some of it unfairly, but on paper he should pair well with Norman, as his running game compliments Norman’s distribution skills. It hasn’t quite worked that way just yet – Widdop and Norman swapping between the halves and fullback didn’t help – but in theory it can still succeed. Having said that, a halves combination working in theory is not the greatest basis for a premiership charge.
THE TIP: The Dragons should be able to contend for the finals until very late in the regular season, and a bottom eight feels like their level for 2020.
Even if Hunt and Norman improve, and Lomax is a success at fullback and injuries don’t strike the backline, where they are still a little thin, and everything else goes right, it might not be enough to save Paul McGregor’s job – an early losing streak could be all the club needs to axe one of their favourite sons.
