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2023 Ladder Prediction

Parko1310

Juniors
Messages
1,457
Our team is an odd one because if they do manage to play to their potential, they could sneak a spot in the eight. But on paper, mainly because of our forwards, I currently only see the Dolphins and Warriors as being worse off than us. I think we are in a similar pedigree on paper to the Titans, Tigers and Manly. Newcastle I have as being a little bit better than us, I don't think they'll make the eight but I think they'll surprise a few this year (hinging on Lachie Miller signing there). So purely based off this, our highest finish would be 12th which I actually can see happening, lowest probably 15th if things go as bad as they can.

Some key areas that will decide how our season fares:

- Can the assistants get the best out of what we have in attack and defence?
Personally I think for our team to play to its attacking potential, we perhaps need another off season before it really gets going. Changing of attacking plans structures can take time to click. Same goes for defence, and I do also think there are just some out and out poor defenders in our team that may struggle to adapt to any changes in the way we defend. I do however, think that for this season the assistants can still have a positive impact and improve both areas, so lets hope for just that, improvement and progress.

- Can Sloan put a bad year last year behind him and step up to the plate in Ramsey's absence?
I'll back him in for now. He's quite obviously bulked up, but I think he is still another off season in the gym away from us really seeing the results from his strength and frame work. The fans are backing him, so Sloany has got to back himself. He can't be afraid of the high ball and making tackles. If he can improve this, and get more and more vocal at the back as the season goes on, it will be a great year for Sloan's development.

- We need to get lucky with injury and suspension
Our depth is horrible. We don't even have two first grade quality second rowers in the squad and the front row is still two decent props short of being anything resembling quality. When Lawrie is coming off the bench or fighting for a place in first grade, our front row is probably tracking okay. We are an injury/suspension or two away from absolute disaster this season, and we haven't had much luck in previous years, so fingers crossed.

- How will Sullivan fare in what will likely be his first full year in grade?
I think he'll do well, especially attacking wise. Defence probably needs a bit of work as his small frame sees him lose contact often. Amone's defence improved week on week last season, so hoping for more of the same for Sullivan.

- Jacob Liddle
Think he'll do better than most expect. Really quick out of dummy half despite having lost some speed from knee injuries. Upgrade on McCullough 100% and came for cheap. I just hope fans don't get the knives out for him if he makes an error or misses a tackle, there's already conjecture around his signing and the lad needs support, not hate, coming from his own fans early on. Not expecting the world, but expecting better than what we've had previously.

- And finally, is Moses Mbye really the guy for the 14 jumper?
I like Mbye, I think he'll do a solid job wherever you put him. The thing is, I think of all the positions he can cover, hooker might just be his worst one. He'll be likely coming off the bench to replace Liddle at some point in games. But I don't think he offers much at hooker. He'll do his job, but he loses contact in the middle, is a bit slow with his service and is pretty one dimensional in the way he plays from there. I think 6 and the centres are his best spots. The only reason Mbye would be the 14 is because he can cover so many positions, but he's supposed to be covering hooker most of the time. I quite like the idea of having two out and out hookers in the team, and I think Jack Bird if needed can fill the Mbye versatility role in the middle of games should injury strike. The thing is, when Mbye isn't providing all that much from hooker, will Hook change his 14 or stick with Mbye because he's a "classic 14". I think he'll pick and stick, but it has to be seriously considered to change it at some point if he's not working at hooker imo.

With that, my best 17 would be:
1. Tyrell Sloan
2. Mat Feagai
3. Moses Suli
4. Zac Lomax
5. Mikaele Ravalawa
6. Jayden Sullivan
7 Ben Hunt (c)
8. Jack de Belin
9. Jacob Liddle
10. Blake Lawrie
11. BMM (25-30 mins starting as we just don't have quality in this position)
12. Jaydn Su'a
13. Jack Bird
14. Mbye/Finau/Muhleisson
15. Francis Molo (hoping he can challenge Lawrie for his starting spot)
16. Zane Musgrove
17. Tyrell Fuimaono

With this list staying relatively injury and suspension free, I've probably got us finishing absolute highest 7th, lowest 15th and my prediction is 12th. Too many question marks to be a top eight side for mine. Apologies for the lengthy post, but that's what I make of our hopes this year.
 

Dragon David

First Grade
Messages
9,243
Our team is an odd one because if they do manage to play to their potential, they could sneak a spot in the eight. But on paper, mainly because of our forwards, I currently only see the Dolphins and Warriors as being worse off than us. I think we are in a similar pedigree on paper to the Titans, Tigers and Manly. Newcastle I have as being a little bit better than us, I don't think they'll make the eight but I think they'll surprise a few this year (hinging on Lachie Miller signing there). So purely based off this, our highest finish would be 12th which I actually can see happening, lowest probably 15th if things go as bad as they can.

Some key areas that will decide how our season fares:

- Can the assistants get the best out of what we have in attack and defence?
Personally I think for our team to play to its attacking potential, we perhaps need another off season before it really gets going. Changing of attacking plans structures can take time to click. Same goes for defence, and I do also think there are just some out and out poor defenders in our team that may struggle to adapt to any changes in the way we defend. I do however, think that for this season the assistants can still have a positive impact and improve both areas, so lets hope for just that, improvement and progress.

- Can Sloan put a bad year last year behind him and step up to the plate in Ramsey's absence?
I'll back him in for now. He's quite obviously bulked up, but I think he is still another off season in the gym away from us really seeing the results from his strength and frame work. The fans are backing him, so Sloany has got to back himself. He can't be afraid of the high ball and making tackles. If he can improve this, and get more and more vocal at the back as the season goes on, it will be a great year for Sloan's development.

- We need to get lucky with injury and suspension
Our depth is horrible. We don't even have two first grade quality second rowers in the squad and the front row is still two decent props short of being anything resembling quality. When Lawrie is coming off the bench or fighting for a place in first grade, our front row is probably tracking okay. We are an injury/suspension or two away from absolute disaster this season, and we haven't had much luck in previous years, so fingers crossed.

- How will Sullivan fare in what will likely be his first full year in grade?
I think he'll do well, especially attacking wise. Defence probably needs a bit of work as his small frame sees him lose contact often. Amone's defence improved week on week last season, so hoping for more of the same for Sullivan.

- Jacob Liddle
Think he'll do better than most expect. Really quick out of dummy half despite having lost some speed from knee injuries. Upgrade on McCullough 100% and came for cheap. I just hope fans don't get the knives out for him if he makes an error or misses a tackle, there's already conjecture around his signing and the lad needs support, not hate, coming from his own fans early on. Not expecting the world, but expecting better than what we've had previously.

- And finally, is Moses Mbye really the guy for the 14 jumper?
I like Mbye, I think he'll do a solid job wherever you put him. The thing is, I think of all the positions he can cover, hooker might just be his worst one. He'll be likely coming off the bench to replace Liddle at some point in games. But I don't think he offers much at hooker. He'll do his job, but he loses contact in the middle, is a bit slow with his service and is pretty one dimensional in the way he plays from there. I think 6 and the centres are his best spots. The only reason Mbye would be the 14 is because he can cover so many positions, but he's supposed to be covering hooker most of the time. I quite like the idea of having two out and out hookers in the team, and I think Jack Bird if needed can fill the Mbye versatility role in the middle of games should injury strike. The thing is, when Mbye isn't providing all that much from hooker, will Hook change his 14 or stick with Mbye because he's a "classic 14". I think he'll pick and stick, but it has to be seriously considered to change it at some point if he's not working at hooker imo.

With that, my best 17 would be:
1. Tyrell Sloan
2. Mat Feagai
3. Moses Suli
4. Zac Lomax
5. Mikaele Ravalawa
6. Jayden Sullivan
7 Ben Hunt (c)
8. Jack de Belin
9. Jacob Liddle
10. Blake Lawrie
11. BMM (25-30 mins starting as we just don't have quality in this position)
12. Jaydn Su'a
13. Jack Bird
14. Mbye/Finau/Muhleisson
15. Francis Molo (hoping he can challenge Lawrie for his starting spot)
16. Zane Musgrove
17. Tyrell Fuimaono

With this list staying relatively injury and suspension free, I've probably got us finishing absolute highest 7th, lowest 15th and my prediction is 12th. Too many question marks to be a top eight side for mine. Apologies for the lengthy post, but that's what I make of our hopes this year.
A very good post Parko. I think your version of how the Dragons will go in 2023 is much better than the Zero Tackle writer's.
 

steerlerbab

Juniors
Messages
281
I have rated our current 27 players to see if we are really a wooden spoon candidate.
I have put * next to Ramsey and Amone as they may not play.
I also note that we still have 3 spots and possibly 4 (if Amone stood down) to fill.
Finally, I have tried to choose players at their best position. This may not be where Hook plays them.

Fullback:
Cody Ramsey*: 8points (4A, 4D)
- Had a near flawless last year when he came back from injury. Hope he makes it back again
Tyrell Sloan: 6points (4.5A, 1.5D)
- Sloan is genius in Attack. But in defence, I have taken 2 points for missing tackles and 1.5 points for catching areal balls.
He has to cover fullback until Ramsey comes back.

Wing:
Mikaele Ravalawa: 8 points (4.5A, 3.5D)
- The reason I have given 3.5 in defence is because of his tackling technique.
Mathew Feagai: 8 points (4.5A, 3.5D)
- Against Broncos he showed his attacking skills. Needs to improve under areal balls
Max Feagai: ? points
- Unknown quantity but if he is as good as his twin then we have wings covered.

Centre:
Moses Suli: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- 140m in attack and solid defender. Should not be too far off playing State Of origin
Zac Lomax: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- Zac is an enigma. At his best he is a genius (Is not this what Freddy rated him). Great step and Great jump can trouble any defence.
He needs to get rubbish and no look passes out of his game.
Tautau Moga: 6 points (3A, 3D)
- A solid reserve. Can cover Centre or Wing in case of injury.

half:
Ben Hunt 9.5 points (5A, 4.5D)
- A state of Origin player gives him an automatic 9.5 or 10. Deducted 0.5 point because of missed tackles (Don't forget
that opposition runs their forward at him to tire him)
Jayden Sullivan: 7.5 points (4A, 3.5D)
- Limited opportunities last year, but he was playing mainly hooker and looked very sharp. Would get more opportunities
at half as Hunt goes on state of Origin duties. Not sure how he will at Five Eight as that is a more ball runner position.

Five Eight:
Talatau Amone*: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- Unfortunately he won't play because of off field issues. He owned that position last year.
Jack Bird: 8 points (4A, 4D)
- Once upon a time he was a state of origin player that would have earned him 9.5 points. Still a solid first grader and
should play Five Eight if Amone is stood down

Lock:
Jack de Belin: 9.5 points (4.5A, 5D)
- Once upon a time he was a state of origin player and from what I saw last year he has still got it (Only blocker is Isaah Yeo).
Some call his defence the best in league.

Second Row:
Jaydn Su'A: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- Our best forward last year. Once upon a time he was a state of origin player and if team plays well he will be considered for Queensland.
Michael Molo
Tyrell Fuimaono
Billy Burns
Josh Kerr: 6points (3A, 3D)
- All these guys are solid reserve graders. Jack can be moved here but in absence of

Front Row:
Blake Lawrie: 7.5 points (3.5A, 4D)
- Solid front rower and still 26 so he is still young and improving. He scored his first try last year.
Ben Murdoch-Masila: 8.5 points (4.5A, 4D)
- If his form this year matches his reputation then we should have at least one front row position covered.
Francis Molo: 7.5 points (3.5A, 4D)
- Once upon a time he was a state of origin player (2021) and he is still 28. So I am hoping he improves this year.
Zane Musgrove: 7.5 points (3.5A, 4D)
- He is still 26 and this is the age that front rowers come of age. So, like Francis, I am hoping he improves this year.
Aaron Woods: 7.0 points (3.5A, 3.5D)
- He is 31 and probably this is the last year of his career. Once upon a time he was a state of origin player, but now he can be considered a solid reserve grader.
Jaiyden Hunt: 6.0 points (3, 3D)
- He is 24 years old. So maybe he can break to first grade this year.
Nick Lui-Toso: ? points
- Unknown quantity but apparently was killing it in Queensland up. Sometimes teams discover gems in Queensland cup. Will he be a dud or gem? time will tell.
Dummy Half:
Jacob Liddle: 7.0 points (3.5A, 3.5D)
- he was an australian schoolboy. Let's hope that a change of sceneray will bring best in him.

Sub:
Moses Mbye: 8.0 points (4A, 4D)
- As a sub he can cover every position at backline and also hooker. That is why I gave him 8.
I hope Hook does not waste him as 80 minute fullback like last year if Ramsey not available and Sloan defence does not improve.

Based on above analysis of mine we have the potential to make it to top 8. I see us short in fullback, five eight and back row based on player availability (FB, FE) and ability (BR).
 

to_ddeath

Coach
Messages
11,908
The problem with our team is that we have zero depth. Our starting 17 could potentially make the eight if everything fell into place, Sloan and Bud come along, Hunt has another big year, Bird, JDB and Su’a play to potential etc etc.
But what will happen is injuries and suspensions. Then all of a sudden you are playing with Moga on one wing, Mbye at fullback or 5/8, Fuimaono starting backrow etc etc. Then you are heading to the bottom 4.

If I had to bet on a ladder position this year I would say 14th, because our depth is very poor.

This is exactly my prediction also
Can only see Warriors, Titans & possibly Knights or Dolphins below them at this stage
Crook is hellbent on not giving Sullivan top billing in the halves which is already a handicap on top of the rent-a-forwards that have been signed
A key injury or 2 for a sustained period & it turns into a calamity very quickly
 

RedVDave

First Grade
Messages
5,743
Playing group is divided, culture is toxic, lost our 2 best forwards, have a worse coaching staff, have no hooker, potentially have another player stood down with the no fault policy. I'd say a wooden spoon is going to happen. If a wooden spoon our board will finally get it's act together after hitting bottom then that would be a positive but that won't happen they'll make excuses to justify their inflated salary.
 

Old Timer

Coach
Messages
17,804
10th for mine.

Our juniors will get a chance to show case their skills and their deficiencies

The old guard will play games as the youngsters get tired and injured during the season

The players will close ranks and form a strong bond and “play” for the club.

The new coaches will reinstate the “fun” part of footy whilst instilling a culture of why the hard stuff counts.

NOT all doom and gloom IMO
 

kit66

Bench
Messages
4,005
I have rated our current 27 players to see if we are really a wooden spoon candidate.
I have put * next to Ramsey and Amone as they may not play.
I also note that we still have 3 spots and possibly 4 (if Amone stood down) to fill.
Finally, I have tried to choose players at their best position. This may not be where Hook plays them.

Fullback:
Cody Ramsey*: 8points (4A, 4D)
- Had a near flawless last year when he came back from injury. Hope he makes it back again
Tyrell Sloan: 6points (4.5A, 1.5D)
- Sloan is genius in Attack. But in defence, I have taken 2 points for missing tackles and 1.5 points for catching areal balls.
He has to cover fullback until Ramsey comes back.

Wing:
Mikaele Ravalawa: 8 points (4.5A, 3.5D)
- The reason I have given 3.5 in defence is because of his tackling technique.
Mathew Feagai: 8 points (4.5A, 3.5D)
- Against Broncos he showed his attacking skills. Needs to improve under areal balls
Max Feagai: ? points
- Unknown quantity but if he is as good as his twin then we have wings covered.

Centre:
Moses Suli: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- 140m in attack and solid defender. Should not be too far off playing State Of origin
Zac Lomax: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- Zac is an enigma. At his best he is a genius (Is not this what Freddy rated him). Great step and Great jump can trouble any defence.
He needs to get rubbish and no look passes out of his game.
Tautau Moga: 6 points (3A, 3D)
- A solid reserve. Can cover Centre or Wing in case of injury.

half:
Ben Hunt 9.5 points (5A, 4.5D)
- A state of Origin player gives him an automatic 9.5 or 10. Deducted 0.5 point because of missed tackles (Don't forget
that opposition runs their forward at him to tire him)
Jayden Sullivan: 7.5 points (4A, 3.5D)
- Limited opportunities last year, but he was playing mainly hooker and looked very sharp. Would get more opportunities
at half as Hunt goes on state of Origin duties. Not sure how he will at Five Eight as that is a more ball runner position.

Five Eight:
Talatau Amone*: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- Unfortunately he won't play because of off field issues. He owned that position last year.
Jack Bird: 8 points (4A, 4D)
- Once upon a time he was a state of origin player that would have earned him 9.5 points. Still a solid first grader and
should play Five Eight if Amone is stood down

Lock:
Jack de Belin: 9.5 points (4.5A, 5D)
- Once upon a time he was a state of origin player and from what I saw last year he has still got it (Only blocker is Isaah Yeo).
Some call his defence the best in league.

Second Row:
Jaydn Su'A: 9 points (4.5A, 4.5D)
- Our best forward last year. Once upon a time he was a state of origin player and if team plays well he will be considered for Queensland.
Michael Molo
Tyrell Fuimaono
Billy Burns
Josh Kerr: 6points (3A, 3D)
- All these guys are solid reserve graders. Jack can be moved here but in absence of

Front Row:
Blake Lawrie: 7.5 points (3.5A, 4D)
- Solid front rower and still 26 so he is still young and improving. He scored his first try last year.
Ben Murdoch-Masila: 8.5 points (4.5A, 4D)
- If his form this year matches his reputation then we should have at least one front row position covered.
Francis Molo: 7.5 points (3.5A, 4D)
- Once upon a time he was a state of origin player (2021) and he is still 28. So I am hoping he improves this year.
Zane Musgrove: 7.5 points (3.5A, 4D)
- He is still 26 and this is the age that front rowers come of age. So, like Francis, I am hoping he improves this year.
Aaron Woods: 7.0 points (3.5A, 3.5D)
- He is 31 and probably this is the last year of his career. Once upon a time he was a state of origin player, but now he can be considered a solid reserve grader.
Jaiyden Hunt: 6.0 points (3, 3D)
- He is 24 years old. So maybe he can break to first grade this year.
Nick Lui-Toso: ? points
- Unknown quantity but apparently was killing it in Queensland up. Sometimes teams discover gems in Queensland cup. Will he be a dud or gem? time will tell.
Dummy Half:
Jacob Liddle: 7.0 points (3.5A, 3.5D)
- he was an australian schoolboy. Let's hope that a change of sceneray will bring best in him.

Sub:
Moses Mbye: 8.0 points (4A, 4D)
- As a sub he can cover every position at backline and also hooker. That is why I gave him 8.
I hope Hook does not waste him as 80 minute fullback like last year if Ramsey not available and Sloan defence does not improve.

Based on above analysis of mine we have the potential to make it to top 8. I see us short in fullback, five eight and back row based on player availability (FB, FE) and ability (BR).
Appreciate your work to put all that together but I'd question your defensive stats for some of those guys. Ben Hunt is the worst defender in the comp which is a worry when you consider he's the Qld hooker. Amone and Bird are also quite poor in the defence dept. Kerr on the other hand is a very solid defender with over 95% efficiency despite what his detractors would have you believe and I'd also score his attack higher for his good metres and quickest play the balls in our team consistently, not to mention his off-loads. Liddle also is quite a good defender and I think you'll find Sullivan, though small will prove a much better defender than Amone, Hunt or Sloan by some margin, he has no sense of self preservation, he's a mini David Barnhill.
 
Last edited:

Crush

Coach
Messages
11,250
I don't think we'll be 9th after round 1. There will be 4 teams in the positive and 4 teams on negative F/A so 5th is where we'll be on zero F/A, unless there is a rare draw which will drop us to 7th.
Still in the top 8 after round 1 🤣
Huh? Won’t the top 8 teams have all won therefore being on positive F/A?
 

st.phil

Bench
Messages
4,630
Playing group is divided, culture is toxic, lost our 2 best forwards, have a worse coaching staff, have no hooker, potentially have another player stood down with the no fault policy. I'd say a wooden spoon is going to happen. If a wooden spoon our board will finally get it's act together after hitting bottom then that would be a positive but that won't happen they'll make excuses to justify their inflated salary.
tariq is that you? Sims, Mcguire and Macca were all $hithouse last year, anything is an upgrade
 
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