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2023 Ladder Prediction

steerlerbab

Juniors
Messages
284
Appreciate your work to put all that together but I'd question your defensive stats for some of those guys. Ben Hunt is the worst defender in the comp which is a worry when you consider he's the Qld hooker. Amone and Bird are also quite poor in the defence dept. Kerr on the other hand is a very solid defender with over 95% efficiency despite what his detractors would have you believe and I'd also score his attack higher for his good metres and quickest play the balls in our team consistently, not to mention his off-loads. Liddle also is quite a good defender and I think you'll find Sullivan, though small will prove a much better defender than Amone, Hunt or Sloan by some margin, he has no sense of self preservation, he's a mini David Barnhill.
With Ben Hunt, he had a dismal year last year last year, but if we take his overall career, he did have very good years.

With Josh Kerr and Jacod Liddle obviously they did not play too much last year, only 7 and 10 games respectively (don't know id it was because injury or attitude). However, I must agree that their 2021 rate was good (44 missed/548 made for Josh and 68 missed/790 made for Jacob ). If they get back to their 2021 levels and play at least 20 games this year, I think they should be rated 4.5 in defence again.

Jack Bird I rated him 4 out of 5 (his efficiency was 87% and he went through a lot of tackles (600 made and 80 missed). So I think my assessment was fair with him.
 
Messages
1,872
The problem with our team is that we have zero depth. Our starting 17 could potentially make the eight if everything fell into place, Sloan and Bud come along, Hunt has another big year, Bird, JDB and Su’a play to potential etc etc.
But what will happen is injuries and suspensions. Then all of a sudden you are playing with Moga on one wing, Mbye at fullback or 5/8, Fuimaono starting backrow etc etc. Then you are heading to the bottom 4.

If I had to bet on a ladder position this year I would say 14th, because our depth is very poor.
I seem to have lost my "like" button, so I can't give a thumbs up to this or any other post atm.

I think there is absolutely no way that Hook won't start with Mbye at five-eighth and Bud in #14. And, on past evidence, he will persist with this until our season is banjaxed and then give Bud a run when it's too late for him to make any difference. Thus we would have a Wooden Spoon-worthy halves combination however I can't see us finishing last unless everything that can go wrong does go wrong. Young Talatau has got us off the mark, and we've suffered another major setback with Cody's health issues.... Don't they always come in threes?
 

st.phil

Bench
Messages
4,653
best case 7th
worst case 12th
most likely 9th

If Sloan and Bud brain it, Hunt stays fit, Bird becomes a real lock forward and the forwards arc up n surprise us - I think we can challenge for bottom of the 8. We have enough strike to trouble all teams in the comp - the backline has threats everywhere and Hunt's confidence has reached new heights.

+ side is the low expectations and media bagging "dismal dragons" - gives us a narrative to fight against and reshape. If the group is tight it could bind them, if we see more infighting and request releases , it will tear em apart.

Hook contract another major piece - i think the club will keep quiet on that front for as long as humanly possible, gone are the coaching extensions at half time (surely)

Depth an issue + being down two troops (amone and ramsey) so early on is worrisome. Hook also an issue - when injuries hit he'll revert to moga / woods / mbyes / BMM or sign an old timer to try and scrape results rather than blooding for the future.
 
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RedVDave

First Grade
Messages
5,749
tariq is that you? Sims, Mcguire and Macca were all $hithouse last year, anything is an upgrade
Tariq at his worst is still better than half our current forward pack sadly. I agree McCullough is a dud however we have no one proven there and no depth in that position I'd argue hooker is still our weakest spot with or without him.
 

Slippery Morris

First Grade
Messages
7,899
Saints tipped to come last by the media which gives Saints board an expectation of Hook to finish at least 16th to get an extension. Great.

Lets count how many times we hear Hooks buddies in the media say "he is doing a great job as Saints were tipped to come last this year". That is if in fact they don't come last.

The issue is they have been tipped 2 years in a row to come last on their logic which shows he has made the team worse off when he joined and makes Mary look like a super coach.

Personally I cannot see them making the 8 the longer he stays. If they get a new guy in mid season, they may have a late surge to avoid the spoon.
 

Slippery Morris

First Grade
Messages
7,899
Saints would require a Cowboys 2022 type season to have any success with juniors playing out of the skins. Only difference is the Cowboys coach in Paten has a much better coaching record seeing he has coached 2 weaker sides when he started and made them into a very competitive team compared to Hook who has had stronger sides in Bronco's and Panthers and made them play below their potential. Paten seems to get the players to play above their potential and I feel will win a comp soon and be talked about like Bellamy and Robbo. He was unlucky not to make the GF due to some really bad calls by the ref in the semi. That forward pass from Moses being the most obvious bad call.

The first 6 rounds is where if Saints are to have a good season or not and will give us an indication as they are winnable games and will build momentum and give the boys great confidence. Nothing better than a junior with a heap of confidence that is why he should start them in the early rounds. If they start poorly after 6 rounds it could possibly be one of the worst seasons for the red V. Time will tell. The boys will be pumped and hopefully start strongly with some good wins.
 

Dragon David

First Grade
Messages
9,334
Saints would require a Cowboys 2022 type season to have any success with juniors playing out of the skins. Only difference is the Cowboys coach in Paten has a much better coaching record seeing he has coached 2 weaker sides when he started and made them into a very competitive team compared to Hook who has had stronger sides in Bronco's and Panthers and made them play below their potential. Paten seems to get the players to play above their potential and I feel will win a comp soon and be talked about like Bellamy and Robbo. He was unlucky not to make the GF due to some really bad calls by the ref in the semi. That forward pass from Moses being the most obvious bad call.

The first 6 rounds is where if Saints are to have a good season or not and will give us an indication as they are winnable games and will build momentum and give the boys great confidence. Nothing better than a junior with a heap of confidence that is why he should start them in the early rounds. If they start poorly after 6 rounds it could possibly be one of the worst seasons for the red V. Time will tell. The boys will be pumped and hopefully start strongly with some good wins.
Let's hope Slippery.
 

Maddragon99

Juniors
Messages
2,075

Dragon David

First Grade
Messages
9,334
To me, the article written by Tony, the Roar Guru, rings so true in mostly everything he says about our Club. Reading it makes me wonder if I should bother having any interest in league altogether now.

How we have fallen and why have we these numbskulls running this joint venture - rather, not running this joint venture? Are they all sitting back waiting for Brucie's WIN Grand to be built and share in the glory of its splendour in Wollongong rather than sharing in the glory of a couple of grand final wins, which appear dead and buried for sometime?

Where is the astuteness of business acumen from the owners of the club? Boy I wish we had the likes of Nick Politis of the Roosters and other business men like Arthur Laundy of the Dogs helping to run our club. Either one would be great.

Dragons 2023 ppfffftt.
 
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twinkletoes

Juniors
Messages
1,008
Unfortunately I can't disagree with anything he says...more or less statement of facts. I hate always being negative but by round 6 we'll all see where we are heading...
 

mickeylane

Bench
Messages
4,992
By round 6 in top 8..
By round 20 floundering at 13, 14 position and as the season draws to an end it could get uglier due to no depth.. good news though is that Sloan may come of age and we gain an exciting fullback and who knows maybe a new coach during the season.. need urgent 2-3 decent forward signings
 

thebigredv

First Grade
Messages
5,407
We've watched and we've lamented a very familiar kind of feebleness in our team after the last two years under a new coach.

There's been the usual suspects that have worked against us achieving success; a soft forward pack, disjointed halves combos lacking killer instinct and execution, pure sadness from dummy half and deeply rooted troubles with mental and physical stamina particularly in defence.

Add to this a horrendous suspension record and a hefty dose of injuries and what at times looks like a sheer didconnect between coach and players, and its actually quite amazing we havent picked up the spoon yet.

So for 2023...

Inexplicably, we have done very little on the player market to sign elite players particularly in the forwards who could radically turn our fortunes around. There were a myriad of props, hookers and second rowers on offer and we ignored this or purely fell flat in our attempts to attract one. I expect Murdoch-Masila to go hard and we should be loading expectations on Lawrie and Molo to lift to a new level in 23 - not sure if this is possible to be frank from what I've seen from either of them. They ain't of Bailey/Weyman/Ryles calibre.

If you think of all our junior prospects after the last handful of years...well truth is it has been perhaps our biggest disappointment. I'd probably say Matt Feagai has been the one who has lived up to his potential and yet he is hardly a damaging player albeit a solid and dependable first grader. His brother, along with Ramsey and Sullivan have been in and out with bad injuries. Amone was just starting to hit his strides alongside Hunt and now his career looks done. Sloan up unto this point is a brilliant attacking weapon with a woeful defensive read of the game and it just seems like a Dufty situation all over again. All eyes on him now. Let's see what our coaching team have done here.

You can go as far back of Lomax when thinking juniors - loaded with potential but yet to play for the Blues because he is yet to rise to a consistent elite level and looks more like a one trick pony now than ever. Doesn't look like he has a coach when he plays.

The junior forwards just haven't taken their chances in first grade plain and simple. Not sure this on the coaching staff or they are just duds but when we can't buy them and we can't develop them, we get left with the Woods and Musgroves of the world.

We will finish between 11th and 17th mostly dependent on how bad teams like Knights, Warriors, Titans and Dolphins go. We may be able do an early drive as we do most seasons but the cream always rises. Perhaps if Liddle can find some of his very early career form and Sullivan and Sloan are able to inject some attack which compliments Hunt's game we might be able to push towards a spot just shy of the 8. Hardly exciting is it guys.

My prediction: 15th
 

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