2024 FW3 Sat - Penrith 26-6 Cronulla @ Accor

[Mr. Shaman]

I live a good stat but let’s get some context:
- what timeframe is that statistic over?
- the increase/decrease in winning percentage? Versus what?
- what is the average ratio of Panthers and Sharks over that timeframe with other referees?

And I know why he would love the Panthers (we are the people’s team), but who hates the Sharks? It’s like hating the Titans; they are so ‘meh’…

He loves Panthers alright. He’s a PDRL life member.

 

[ColdWetPanther]

The stats encompass 2011 to the first 4 rounds of 2024 . I can adjust them up until last weekend if I have time. He started his career in 2011 but only controlled 7 games from 2011 to 2013. So it includes 262 out of 285 games he has refereed in the NRL.

Over that time Penrith have played 353 games under all referees for a winning percentage of 60.76 per cent. Over the same time frame under Atkins they have played 29 times for a strike rate of 72.41 per cent. In the 29 matches he has controlled the Panthers he has given them 158 penalties compared to 128.5 against for a ratio of 1.23 (the .5 is a result of the penalty counts being halved for each referee during the 2 referee system when it was in place) The next best is the Dolphins at 1.14 . Cronulla is last at 0.82 under Atkins.

The other interesting stat is that , using the same timeframe, the Roosters have the worst record under Ashley Klein in terms of penalties received to penalties conceded with the paltry ratio of 0.76 .

Make of that what you will .

Good stats.

I think you could break Penrith down further to look at 2010-2019 (where I assume Penrith would win c50% of games) versus since 2020 (when the win percentage is closer to 80%); this could sway the winning percentage (and if you contend that more dominant teams win more penalties as they are generally winning the ruck) the penalty analysis also.

 

[Kilkenny]

The forecast weather is going to be a factor. Heavy rain leading up to the game and 10-20 mm on game day. Not sure it works in the favour of either side, but certainly is a major factor aside from anything else.

 

[Dragon Slayer]

Learn some lessons from that game
That's the point

Well we must have.

We’re one of four teams left in the comp.

At the time the Dolphins were in the top 4 and in really good form.

Not like the Dolphins that looked gassed with a few games of the season to play.

 

[PANTHERMIKE]

The forecast weather is going to be a factor. Heavy rain leading up to the game and 10-20 mm on game day. Not sure it works in the favour of either side, but certainly is a major factor aside from anything else.

1-5mm the entire day for Saturday @ Homebush.. Wont be much of a factor at all.

 

[Frailty]

Honestly, Panthers could put on 50 points here.
Zero confidence with this game.

 

[Ruby Roundhouse]

panthers by 50 to shut these sharts fans up once and for all

 

[Surely]

panthers by 50 to shut these sharts fans up once and for all

The 50 may happen but the second part of your wild fantasy won't.

 

[Warrimoo3]

The media have been talking up the Sharks this week just to generate some interest. I had a close look at last week’s game and the Sharks were nothing to write home about. Apart from the first 10 minutes the Cowboys were abysmal in the first half. Cronulla got that BS penalty try and a couple of lucky tries thereafter.

The Cowboys improved in the 2nd half and bombed at least 2 golden chances to score. Despite all this the Cowboys were still a chance to win with 10 minutes to go. Hardly a confidence booster going into this weekend for the Sharks.

When they previously met in round 12 at the construction site the Sharks had been going gang busters and Penrith were spluttering. Penrith put the cleaners through them 42-0 sans Cleary .Penrith are going a lot better leading into this encounter and the Sharks are not going as well as they were before round 12. Penrith to get to a 20 point lead then settle into cruise control to keep their powder dry for the following week (mixed metaphor intended).

 

[Mr. Shaman]

I still can’t decide which team I want to lose more.

 

[Ruby Roundhouse]

I still can’t decide which team I want to lose more.

some people say the worst thing to ever happened to the game was super league, I say it's the storm popping the sharks virginity.

 

[This Year?]

I want PENRITH to win only because they have a better chance of stopping Roosters/Storm.
PENRITH are like Batman. They are not the heroes we deserve, but what we need.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

I want PENRITH to win only because they have a better chance of stopping Roosters/Storm.
PENRITH are like Batman. They are not the heroes we deserve, but what we need.

Rooster, then Storms are the hero of my story.

 

[Surely]

The media have been talking up the Sharks this week just to generate some interest. I had a close look at last week’s game and the Sharks were nothing to write home about. Apart from the first 10 minutes the Cowboys were abysmal in the first half. Cronulla got that BS penalty try and a couple of lucky tries thereafter.

The Cowboys improved in the 2nd half and bombed at least 2 golden chances to score. Despite all this the Cowboys were still a chance to win with 10 minutes to go. Hardly a confidence booster going into this weekend for the Sharks.

When they previously met in round 12 at the construction site the Sharks had been going gang busters and Penrith were spluttering. Penrith put the cleaners through them 42-0 sans Cleary .Penrith are going a lot better leading into this encounter and the Sharks are not going as well as they were before round 12. Penrith to get to a 20 point lead then settle into cruise control to keep their powder dry for the following week (mixed metaphor intended).

Think we had a couple of tough ones before that game , storm and rooters.

 

[mxlegend99]

Just to add a bit of contrast here are some more records under other prominent referees:

Under Adam Gee the Sharks winning percentage (using the same criteria as above) rises a whopping 13.09 per cent. The penalty ratios for the Sharks and the Panthers are almost identical under Gee (1.06 and 1.05 respectively). Under Gee the Roosters’ winning percentage rises 6.41 per cent while Melbourne’ actually falls by 4.2 per cent. With respect to penalties under Gee, the Roosters ratio is 0.87 (Brisbane are amazingly last in this category under Gee at 0.78.)

Under Gerard Sutton the Panthers winning percentage actually dips by 0.15 per cent and the Sharks’ increases slightly by 0.84 per cent. With regards to penalties under Sutton , the ratio of penalties received opposed to penalties conceded is 0.98 for the Sharks and 0.98 for the Panthers.

Interestingly under Sutton Newcastle increases their winning percentage by 8.87 per cent , the biggest increase out of all the teams under Sutton. South’s are the runaway leaders under Sutton as far as penalties received versus penalties conceded with a whopping ratio of 1.30. Parramatta are 2nd in this category with a ratio of 1.21 under Sutton.

Panthers got Ashley Klein. Statistically probably the worse referee for them to have gotten.

~60% win rate drops to ~43% win rate. Sharks win rate under him drops from ~50% to 43% aswell.

So we shouldn't get a winner.

 

[GongPanther]

Panthers got Ashley Klein. Statistically probably the worse referee for them to have gotten.

~60% win rate drops to ~43% win rate. Sharks win rate under him drops from ~50% to 43% as well.

So we shouldn't get a winner.

We had Klein V Roosters two weeks ago.

 

[Kilkenny]

Put a lazy $100 on Roosters into Sharks and your collect will be close to $1500. Stranger things have happened.

I never bet against my team so I won’t be doing it but good luck to those who do, it is a minimal risk high gain bet.

 

[GongPanther]

Panthers wont put up a cricket score if they do get a decent enough lead to be comfortable like the V Easts match.

Panthers would rather not burn themselves out by being a show pony in scoring tries just for the sake of them thus risking injury if that is how this game pans out.

With hopefully bigger fish to fry the Sunday after, a conservative scoreline of 28-18 to us might just do it for us. For insurance, reverse the scoreline on pick the score.

 

[ColdWetPanther]

Panthers got Ashley Klein. Statistically probably the worse referee for them to have gotten.

~60% win rate drops to ~43% win rate. Sharks win rate under him drops from ~50% to 43% aswell.

So we shouldn't get a winner.

Ashley will be the winner.

 

[footy75]

Sharks would be nice but Penrith will be too good.