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2024 TV and Streaming Ratings Discussion

Vlad59

Bench
Messages
4,048
Fewer Australian sports can expect similar television paydays, and perhaps only one can lift its income substantially next time it goes to the negotiating table.

That’s the view of Australian sports media rights expert Colin Smith, as global sports rights enter a crossroads period.

Streamers entering the market have helped fuel the imminent NBA deal that has more than doubled to US$76 billion over 11 years. On the other side of the coin France’s Ligue 1 football is without a buyer and broadcaster months out from their season kick-off after no broadcaster (including incumbent Amazon) has shown interest in the price tag.

So where does that leave us here in Australia?

Smith got his crystal ball out for CODE Sports to predict the future economics of our favourite sports.

The must-haves
Peter Garrett and Midnight Oil once screamed “The rich get richer, the poor get the picture’. In Australian sport, the rich will likely stay rich, and it’s questionable who will want to show the poorer sports’ pictures.

“What will stay important in the Australian market is first tier media rights - what I call must -haves,” Smith tells CODE Sports.

“The must-haves are the AFL, the NRL, the Australian Open , Test cricket and you could mount an argument for some of the BBL as well.

“That’s it. Any of the other sports are peripheral.”

The position of those sports is strengthened by Foxtel/Kayo’s bedrock of subscribers being AFL and NRL fans, and free to air to television’s need for big ticket live sport to remain relevant.

“Free-to-air is only viewed now for news, reality television and sport,” Smith says.

The wildcard is whether the Matildas parlay the extraordinary viewing numbers when hosting the 2023 World Cup into similar annual figures across other tournaments and qualifying play.

Buoyed by the Matildas, the top 16 most watched programs on Australian free to air television, and 27 of the top 40, in 2023 were sport.

Tom Trbojevic is interviewed at Fox League's NRL Las Vegas Launch. Picture: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Tom Trbojevic is interviewed at Fox League's NRL Las Vegas Launch. Picture: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
NRL’s expansion opportunity
On a global scale Smith sees the NFL, NBA and the IPL as the only sports leagues achieving continued rights growth.

Of the top tier sports in Australia, he only sees one as having the bargaining chips to get a significant lift in rights at the next negotiation.

“The only one that you could be bullish about is the NRL rights coming in 2027,” Smith says.

The current NRL deal ends after 2027 and pays a reported $400 million per season.

Smith says the introduction of the Dolphins in 2023, and the resultant doubling of live games for a Brisbane team, along with further expansion plans will be the driver.

“It’s possible, but they’ve got to be very careful where they think about putting the next licence. It’s not necessarily Perth or Papua New Guinea.”

“PNG is a one-sport country and the NRL is hugely popular, but the logistics of getting there versus the value you actually derive from it…you won’t be able to get any broadcast rights money out of the PNG.”

Smith believes the establishment of a Perth team has the potential to raise NRL rights revenue, yet it would be another team in New Zealand that represents the most bang for buck for Peter V’landys.

“I can see opportunities for rights to be purchased on both sides of the ditch going forward, so there is an argument that it should be New Zealand as opposed to being Perth. It’s a 50% bigger market than WA.”

Patrick Delany (left), CEO of Foxtel Group, talks with Chairman of the Australian Rugby League Commission Peter V'landys in Las Vegas. Picture: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Patrick Delany (left), CEO of Foxtel Group, talks with Chairman of the Australian Rugby League Commission Peter V'landys in Las Vegas. Picture: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Will the AFL plateau?
Gillon McLachlan’s parting gift to the AFL of renegotiating a rights extension ahead of time puts the AFL in a slightly different position. Its next rights period kicks in next season and runs through to 2031 paying $643million per year.

It occurred at the right time.

As football media doyen Eddie McGuire said on the Sounding Board podcast this week, if the deal was being done today “the money wouldn’t be there.”

Similarly Smith thinks increasing again will be a much tougher sell compared to the NRL, as he can’t see a major gain from its expansion plans.

“I don’t think the addition of Tasmania will shift the dial,” Smith says.

“I understand the compelling logic to why they’ve done it but I don’t think it will increase the value of their rights because of the size of Tasmania. Amount of content would be their best hope for an increase, so that’s more games.”

The most likely location for a 20th team , Northern Territory, is a similar equation.

“It’s in the hands of the AFL how they can drive it, but they’ve got a lot of work to do to make it more attractive to get more people to watch before 2031 if they want to continue the trajectory they’ve set.”

Fox Footy is a key broadcast partner of the AFL. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Fox Footy is a key broadcast partner of the AFL. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
The best of the rest
Of the sports below that top tier Smith thinks life will get very tough to attract the rights fees they secured last time around.

“I don’t see significant increases for Rugby or the A -Leagues at all,” he says.

“Unless they can change the paradigm, it will be very challenging.

“I’ve been doing work on rugby for the last 20 years and it’s continued to go backwards each time, but there’s real latent support there.

“They’ve got to get their act together and fold in with their local communities who are rugby fans.”

The ‘next tier’ leagues he sees as bucking that trend are the NBL and Super Netball.

West Coast Fever are attracting record Super Netball crowds in Perth. Picture: James Worsfold/Getty Images
West Coast Fever are attracting record Super Netball crowds in Perth. Picture: James Worsfold/Getty Images
Granted, Smith sits on the NBL board, but on simple economics he sees the league, now with a financial stake in the WNBL, as the most likely to grow its rights value in the current climate.

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“Their attendance numbers are bigger than some of these other sports, the NBL is where a growth engine could be. Super Netball is similar, but they’ve got to drive it, which hasn’t been the case in the past.”

Smith says the key for those sports is to focus on fan engagement to convert those encouraging crowd figures into being regular television viewers of games across the league.

“Broadcasters are not going to pay money for rights anymore where it doesn’t deliver them an audience.”

Thanks for posting mate. That’s a pretty thorough bit of analysis. Sums up tassie well and why the afl does not want a club here. The article appears to back a NZ club over Perth. There’s definitely logic to that but we shall see
 

The_Wookie

Bench
Messages
3,201
You’re the one that’s been chirping up for months

you said the tv deal was bad.

You said I said the tv deal was bad. I merely refuse to engage you on stupidly repetitive discussions.

I dont need to have the same f**king arguments every other day here. I said what i said, you know what i said - apparently - so why ask shit that has been done and discussed over and over.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
32,944
You said I said the tv deal was bad. I merely refuse to engage you on stupidly repetitive discussions.

I dont need to have the same f**king arguments every other day here. I said what i said, you know what i said - apparently - so why ask shit that has been done and discussed over and over.
Seeing these tantrums when you’ve been shown to be wrong is damn hilarious

dunno why I had you on ignore for 6 months I should’ve responded sooner
 

The_Wookie

Bench
Messages
3,201
Seeing these tantrums when you’ve been shown to be wrong is damn hilarious

dunno why I had you on ignore for 6 months I should’ve responded sooner

lol tantrum. sure. Where was I shown to be wrong? You cant even produce what I said in the first place.
 

The_Wookie

Bench
Messages
3,201
You said pvl signed a bad tv deal
Now you are saying ratings don’t really reflect tv contract values

pick one lol

The two comments arent even related.

Actually I never said that, I said that we dont know all the variables that go into contracts, and that theres more to it than raw ratings - and Ive said this for over a decade. And we know thats true because of comments from NRL officials and media concerning the number of advertisements, breaks and match length.

Just like ratings arent the be all and end all for Foxtel.

And fine - since you apparently cant go and read it for yourself, yes I said PVL signed a bad deal - there was simply no need to sign a deal extension of that length for that amount in the middle of COVID - and of all things to allegedly help out the broadcasters at that. And we know it wasnt necessary, because the major competing code for tv money didnt have to do the same. That three year difference is worth hundreds of millions of dollars at a time when the NRL and NRLW is experiencing exponential growth.
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
32,944
The two comments arent even related.

Actually I never said that, I said that we dont know all the variables that go into contracts, and that theres more to it than raw ratings - and Ive said this for over a decade. And we know thats true because of comments from NRL officials and media concerning the number of advertisements, breaks and match length.

Just like ratings arent the be all and end all for Foxtel.

And fine - since you apparently cant go and read it for yourself, yes I said PVL signed a bad deal - there was simply no need to sign a deal extension of that length for that amount in the middle of COVID - and of all things to allegedly help out the broadcasters at that. And we know it wasnt necessary, because the major competing code for tv money didnt have to do the same. That three year difference is worth hundreds of millions of dollars at a time when the NRL and NRLW is experiencing exponential growth.
Yes I know you said he signed a bad tv deal lol
 

Iamback

Referee
Messages
20,180
The two comments arent even related.

Actually I never said that, I said that we dont know all the variables that go into contracts, and that theres more to it than raw ratings - and Ive said this for over a decade. And we know thats true because of comments from NRL officials and media concerning the number of advertisements, breaks and match length.

Just like ratings arent the be all and end all for Foxtel.

And fine - since you apparently cant go and read it for yourself, yes I said PVL signed a bad deal - there was simply no need to sign a deal extension of that length for that amount in the middle of COVID - and of all things to allegedly help out the broadcasters at that. And we know it wasnt necessary, because the major competing code for tv money didnt have to do the same. That three year difference is worth hundreds of millions of dollars at a time when the NRL and NRLW is experiencing exponential growth.

The NRL looks on track to get back most if not all of the difference though
 

Iamback

Referee
Messages
20,180
Nrl will be selling a 20 team competition as part of the next tv deal

first time nrl has had more teams to sell to tv than afl since 95 or so

Lets see if we are getting 20 so soon.

Dolphins this deal is $20m a year
Team 18 for the next deal adds $40m or so a year.

You are pushing both of those out 3 years IF you just do a short 2 year extension or so.

If 19 and 20 do in fact happen during the next TV deal that puts the NRL further in front of where it would be IF it did the short extension
 

Wb1234

Immortal
Messages
32,944
Lets see if we are getting 20 so soon.

Dolphins this deal is $20m a year
Team 18 for the next deal adds $40m or so a year.

You are pushing both of those out 3 years IF you just do a short 2 year extension or so.

If 19 and 20 do in fact happen during the next TV deal that puts the NRL further in front of where it would be IF it did the short extension
20 teams by 2032 which covers the next tv deal

teams entering 2026 2027 and 2030ish
 

cleary89

Coach
Messages
16,483
What is a good figure for tonight? Seems like most anticipated origin in a while, but I guess you could say that about any origin game.
 

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