I get the impression they have issued a pax number for tickets with reserved seating (i.e. the eastern and western grandstands), but not for general admission tickets sold (i.e. the northern and southern grandstands).
Considering Level 2 south is on sale, the crowd figure is tracking at 20-25k based on how Allianz releases seating. If Level 2 north goes on sale before the game on Thursday, the crowd figure should be in the vicinity of 25-30k...which would be a very good result.
What are you both basing this off?
Allianz is the sort of stadium that has a good atmosphere, even if the stadium is half full.
As I've said, the crowd is currently tracking towards 20-25k. If Level 2 North goes on sale, the record crowd for a Women's State of Origin Game is in play (26,022, set in Brisbane for Game 1 this year).
Setting a record crowd figure would be a reasonable outcome for Sydney would it not?