As of 2026,
Melbourne has a total audience population of 6,006,000
Sydney has a total audience population of 5,739,000
Source:
https://virtualoz.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/VOZ-Universe-Estimates-2026.pdf
I do wish that AFL fans would look at those numbers a bit closer too. You can break up the media markets like this:
Melbourne - 6.0 million - AFL market - 9/10 AFL teams, 1 NRL team
Sydney - 5.7million - NRL market - 9/10 NRL teams, 2 AFL teams
Brisbane - 4.0 million - NRL market - 2/3 NRL teams, 1 AFL team
Rest of NZ - 3.3 million - NRL market - 0 NRL teams, 0 AFL teams -- maybe NRL team 20
Northern NSW - 2.5 million - NRL market - 1 NRL team, 0 AFL teams -- AFL unlikely
Perth - 2.5 million - AFL market - 2 AFL teams, 1 (soon) NRL team -- NRL adding a team
Auckland - 2.2 million - NRL market - 1 NRL team, 0 AFL teams - AFL unlikely
Rest of QLD - 2.1 million - NRL market -1 NRL team, 0 AFL teams - AFL unlikely
Southern NSW/ACT - 1.68 million - NRL market - 2 NRL teams, 0 AFL teams - AFL unlikely
Adelaide - 1.65 million - AFL market - 2 AFL teams, 0 NRL teams - NRL unlikely
Rest of VIC - 1.33 million - AFL market - 1 AFL team, 0 NRL teams - NRL unlikely
TAS - 0.58 million - AFL market - 1 (soon AFL) team, 0 NRL teams - NRL unlikely
The NRL is dominant in 5 of the 10 biggest Australian markets -- 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 -- 57%
AFL is in the other five but they're mostly smaller markets -- 1, 5, 8, 9, 10 -- 43%
NZ2 may be NRL team 20. I can also see the NRL one day having an Adelaide team again within the next decade or two, especially after Perth paves the way. Really, Adelaide is the only major market left in Australia for the NRL - even regional Victoria is too decentralised for another AFL team to work, let alone NRL.
But look at the AFL -- it will never catch up in Sydney or Brisbane. Are they really adding more teams when GWS can't even fill its stadium? New Zealand won't happen any time soon for the AFL. Northern NSW won't happen. Regional Queensland? Nope. At best maybe they'll try Canberra.
Include New Zealand though in these markets and the edge goes to the NRL even more.
AFL fans are excited about the Tassie Devils but you can fit almost five Tasmanias into Northern NSW. Tassie is tiny.
It just feels like the NRL has the edge in the media markets race.