Geelong vs Essendon (24)
This Essendon side ranks as arguably the most unimpressive and fortunate finalist in VFL/AFL history and they rode that luck well last week, falling across the line despite being the lesser side during key moments during the match. Will the luck run dry? Yes, but I don't expect it to happen this week, alas. In real terms, this Geelong side is the better outfit, but they clearly struggled mentally with the pressure of the cauldron last week and may struggle to assert themselves against a steady and experienced opponent here. The Cats did show encouraging signs during the third quarter at AAMI, but will have to produce that in the opening quarter to win the day here. The Cats are a more physical side than Essendon, which will be vulnerable in this area, and the Cats also possess a clear edge in foot speed. It was clear last week, however, that the Bombers can find poise in critical moments and, as ever, will get very favourable decisions at crucial times when playing at the MCG. This latter reality, coupled with the usual soft goals that eminate from the inevitable Lloyd diveathon will ensure that Essendon starts the game with a 4-5 goal+ advantage, and that's too big an ask for a relatively raw Geelong side to overcome.
St Kilda vs Sydney (26)
The Saints started the season on fire, but it certainly tapered-off during the latter stages, and while they still should have better times to look forward to, I suspect it'll be a black day for the club come Sunday. Sydney is essentially an unremarkable side, but they are ahead of every side in the competition in terms of the tight-knit team approach and spirit that they bring to their games. It is also noted that the team maintains a solid and steady level of performance no matter the opponent or situation. St Kilda would rightly argue that they have far superior firepower and could blow Sydney off the map were everything to click on the night. I just feel that they have forwards who are mono-dimensional (in physical play terms) and susceptible to mental stress, which leads to them being shut down too often against big opponents in big games. Even when at its most complex, football is a game best kept simple, and this represents St Kilda's best chance to win tonight. Their only chance is to play long direct football and hope that Riewoldt & Gehrig hold more marks than they drop. Sydney will play high possession, flank journey football, and if St Kilda follows suit then they have zero chance of winning this game.
In essence, I'm suggesting that the lesser sides will win both matches, ostensibly because they're better suited and conditioned to finals football (at this point in time). Would be happy to be proven wrong over the weekend though.
CyberKev
)
