weasel said:
I think South Africa will win 1-0 or 2-0. Their test side is better than their one day side. In ODI's they've been a force in decline since the world cup, winning only 14 of 28 games, 5 of those coming against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. Gibbs, Smith, Kallis, Kirsten are all superb test batsmen, their team bats down to 9 or 10. I also expect the bowling of Pollock and Ntini to be more suited to the tests.
Good, logical points, but in reality New Zealand is a far better test team than their one day unit, even on this form. You add in Rigor Richardson, no death over nerves, and a fighting spirit and they go alright. Up until before the Pakis series I think our ODI win ratio was something like 34% for the past year, our test successes were far far more weighty than that.
I think New Zealand have struck a couple of pyschological blows in that now Mark Richardson would have less fear about the quality of his opening batting partner, and also in the recent success. On South Africa batting down to 9 or 10, Tuffey is a good number 10 who has improved dramatically, and Mason can hold a bat at times. Vettori at 9 has just come off a test ton and is in the form of his life. McCullum before him has opened the batting in one day internationals.
1-0 to New Zealand for mine. Kallis to come back into some good form though.