Club Support - 4 Tiers of the NRL

[docbrown]

Its quite obvious you've based this on the average crowds but i think when making a list like this you have to take into consideration memberships, tv viewing etc.

I think Parras already an alpha. An article came out recently in the SMH discussing the wealthiest footy clubs.

For the Parramatta Eels, television revenue accounted for $86million of the club's value of $141million.

No I took memberships and TV viewing into account but is all open to interpretation. The Eels are definitely Top 5

Like I said, it's open to interpretation and bullsh*t. The Eels are definitely one of the Top 5 teams and on the cusp. They have national branding and TV coverage on par with the Bulldogs and if they playing some larger 'event' games at Homebush they will definitely start drawing a home average of 20,000+.

So do you propose that something be done with these 4 tiers? Or are you just acknowledging they exist?

Just acknowledging they exist. I've based this on how all these teams have developed since 1990, through Super League era and into the NRL. Teams fluctuate up and down the list over time and lower tiers can look to the upper teams for strategies on how to expand their club's supporter base.

Eels and Roosters the same tier?

Yes but at opposite ends of it. Roosters tend to fluctuate between Gamma and Beta depending on on-field success. Their performances in early 2000's resulted in young fans city-wide adopting them because they were a successful team. Alot of these fans don't live in Eastern Suburbs but go to away games. They also have a strong corporate and marketing arm.

I think in terms of Sydney there is definately a "big 5" - Bulldogs, Eels, Dragons, Rabbitohs and Tigers. The Rabbitohs probably weakest of the 5.

That's my Top 5 for Sydney too.

The others in Sydney fall into smaller "niche" markets - or are wealthy and generally don't rely on large public support.
Of the rest, well they are all key regionals important to the games revenue.

Yes but regional teams can become powerhouses in terms of rallying support. The Knights in the 1990's are a testament to this.

We want more top tier clubs when we expand.

Again, the other reason why I made this list. Definitely the strongest area is South West Brisbane. But the Central Coast offers similar benefits to the Tigers and Dragons arrangements, being both regionally based but with Sydney away support. Perth will carve out a niche over time in such a big city with long term support. Central Queensland is also a longer term project but offers benefits similar to North Queensland. Port Moresby has major corporate and attraction drawbacks, but is good for the international marketing aspect of the game. Wellington outsupports Christchurch, but have clubs in both cities would give the NRL a national dimension in the country competing on part with Super Rugby.

I know people are going to bitch and moan but realistically, to strengthen the game, if the Sea Eagles and Sharks were gone the Sydney competition would benefit immensely.

Deleting or rellocating the Sharks is a bad move for the game. I know it pisses off both sets of fans when it's mentioned, but if a genuine 50-50 Easts-Sharks joint venture could be achieved, it would have a similar dimension to Dragons/Tigers and would propel both into the Alpha list.

But the Sea Eagles are stuck in Brooky with a council unwilling to help the money loss with a redevelopment and the club will lose more $$$/fans as their "niche" market shrinks further when the Bears come in.

The best short term thing for the Sea Eagles is actually the Bears. Whilst there are migrant fans of other teams there, there is currently a gap in League's hold in Sydney on the North Shore, where Union and AFL have grown their supporter bases. Rather than compete with the Sea Eagles, the Bears actually give both areas a regular weekly attraction which brings the sporting focal point back to Rugby League - benefiting both in the long run. Manly need to become a team that appeals a certain aethetic city wide and revitalise their stadium. That - and with on field success, they could be a Beta again.

You only need to look at FNF to see who the big clubs are. C9 don't pick the same teams virtually every week for no reason.

There is usually an Alpha or a Beta involved, if not both.

It is a self fulfilling prophesy

More TV = more sponsorship = better facilities / squad = better performance = more fans = more TV

Lets try 5 years of the Broncos, Dragons, Eels and Bulldogs being on the Graveyard shift on Fox every week, and the Sharks, Raiders, Warriors and Knights getting the friday night live game, and see what the comp looks like then.....

Exactly. Which is why every team should have 4-5 locked-in pre-scheduled blockbuster games at the start of the year that guarantee them free to air coverage, like the Sharks vs Dragons match for example.

 

[docbrown]

EDIT: the problem for us might be that the governments have AFL and soccer as their pet sports. Even Qld is giving AFL a great run.

In the 70's, 80's and early 90's Rugby League actually had a political wing that basically lobbied for support in Canberra, Sydney and Brisbane. They were a group of pro-league politicians, but it seems that's fallen by the wayside now.

You can bet your bottom dollar AFL and Soccer's political arm is in full swing :sarcasm:

I think we were in the upper tiers around 2003-6, but we have been woefully managed by one of the most mentally handicapped boards in existence.

Yep the Grand Final was definitely the boom year, with a follow on up until last year. With good management and success, Cowboys will be a Beta/Alpha again.

 

[docbrown]

Every team pretty much goes through it mate... That Newcastle supporter is just bitter! Newcastle from 1997-2004/5 were the NRL & Channel 9 darlings.

Fact is give Cronulla & Penrith EVERY friday night game and it wouldn't do much in lifting there supporter base. Penrith from 2003-2005 got its fair share of games and won a Premiership but it did SFA (As seen by this years averages for a team coming 2nd).

Newcastle were definitely a former Beta but has fallen on some harder times. You kind of get the feeling though that they are on the uphill climb again rather than the bottom.

Penrith needs to lock up its base from Penrith to Blacktown. There's a reason why AFL is putting it's side there because it's not passionately swung towards any one team. They're hope to convert those fringe supporters.

Welcome to Vietnam!

 

[1 Eyed TEZZA]

I frankly dont see how Manly are in danger because of the Bears. The only thing really hurting Manly is their stadium.

 

[1 Eyed TEZZA]

Penrith needs to lock up its base from Penrith to Blacktown. There's a reason why AFL is putting it's side there because it's not passionately swung towards any one team. They're hope to convert those fringe supporters.

I live dead smack in that area, it is more Parra and Bulldogs territory. The Panthers brand just doesn't appeal to the locals for some reason. IMO, they need sustained success.

 

[sarahk]

I live dead smack in that area, it is more Parra and Bulldogs territory. The Panthers brand just doesn't appeal to the locals for some reason. IMO, they need sustained success.

The Blacktown area is predominantly parra supported. Even the local newspaper has a middle section on the Parramatta Eels.

 

[Goddo]

but what they are proposing will impact the amount of $'s taken from pokies machines for clubs which will have an effect on how much clubs give to the NRL side of the company. Its not Govt getting more taxes from pokies, it is actually reducing the amount of money that can be put into a pokie machine.

True, but the salary cap will be covered by the TV deal in full from 2013, and membership/merchandise/match day/sposorship revenue will hopefully cover other costs.
Clubs would then be looking for aid or some form of excemption from the government.

Its not as bleak as it looks, but underperforming or poorly supported sides may have troubles.

 

[docbrown]

True, but the salary cap will be covered by the TV deal in full from 2013, and membership/merchandise/match day/sposorship revenue will hopefully cover other costs.
Clubs would then be looking for aid or some form of excemption from the government.

Its not as bleak as it looks, but underperforming or poorly supported sides may have troubles.

Yes, but every cent matters. The NRL needs to convert leagues club members into proper football club members, which is what its starting to do. Hopefully in ten years most clubs will have 10-20,000 members, with a handful in 30,000's.

I've always said that the NRL can file a restraint of trade aggreivance against the NSW Government's tax laws. It could also file one if the government blocks other sports from competing during any soccer world cup here.

 

[boxhead]

Yeah it's a good list docbrown, thanks for taking the time to make it.
I think though that Parra are already an 'alpha', but that's definitely disputable; either they are a lower 'alpha' or the top 'beta'.
I pretty much agree with everything else.

 

[1 Eyed TEZZA]

Give Parra 24 months and we will be permanently situated near the top end of that list.

Curious, why the use of Greek letters? Why not just A, B, etc etc?

 

[macavity]

Every team pretty much goes through it mate... That Newcastle supporter is just bitter! Newcastle from 1997-2004/5 were the NRL & Channel 9 darlings.

And during that time, we had much better support than we do now. Same could be said for the Raiders during their glory years.

A club needs sustained TV exposure to maintain its following.

In the modern era, 4 teams have had that, irrespective of results - Brisbane, Dogs, Dragons and Parra.

For the past 10 years you can pretty much guarantee at least two of those teams will be on FTA every week. No other teams have had anywhere near that level of sustained TV exposure.

No coincidence they are the support heavyweights of the modern era.

Self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[docbrown]

Give Parra 24 months and we will be permanently situated near the top end of that list.

Curious, why the use of Greek letters? Why not just A, B, etc etc?

Well it's really just the same thing, the greek just makes it standout more. There's a similar list for world cities that classifies them in the same way.

So the Broncos are like New York
Eels are like Chicago
Knights are like Atlanta
Cowboys are like Houston
Panthers are like Seattle
Sharks are like Detroit

It's just a way to make comparisons. Looking to the future and not including the expansion teams - rather than the current 50-50 situation, I think we'll soon have more haves than have nots, with 6 Alpha clubs, 6 Beta clubs and 4 Gammas.

 

[Eagle_Rocker]

I frankly dont see how Manly are in danger because of the Bears. The only thing really hurting Manly is their stadium.

Exactly, if we had a better stadium with comfortable seating, better food and beer service, and quality toilets that don't constantly overflow, then I think we would be capable of averaging aound 18,000 per game maybe more (obviously there will be the usual flucuations depending on weather and form).

However, crowd numbers are always going to take a back seat to TV. If the NRL wanted more bums on seats they would play more games on Sunday afternoon, and maybe even a Saturday afternoon game.

 

[docbrown]

For those deathriding the Titans I would like to point out that in survey polls they are actually ranked 7th overall in terms of fan support.

http://www.roymorganonlinestore.com/Images/News/article-1441---image-4---modified-size-(HS).aspx

 

[docbrown]

Now some interesting numbers to come out of this -

2011 - about 6.8 million interested in a specifc NRL club
The 10 year average was 6.6 million so 2011 is up

Maximum numbers of each club combined over the last decade - about 8.3 million i.e. the maximum pool of Australians who have taken an interest in an NRL club over that period (not including those with just a casual unaffiliated interest).

Now looking at approx Maximum rankings rounded to the nearest 25,000 increment -

Broncos - 1,600,000
Storm - 1,000,000
Eels - 725,000
Tigers - 625,000
Cowboys - 600,000
Dragons - 600,000
Knights - 575,000
Bulldogs - 525,000
Roosters - 450,000
Panthers - 375,000
Titans - 350,000
Sea Eagles - 350,000
Rabbitohs - 325,000
Raiders - 325,000
Sharks - 300,000
Warriors - 300,000

But looking at long term average that take into fluctuations for performance etc -

BRONCOS - 1,400,000
STORM - 700,000
EELS - 500,000
DRAGONS - 500,000
KNIGHTS - 400,000
TIGERS - 400,000
BULLDOGS - 400,000
COWBOYS - 300,000
TITANS - 300,000
SEA EAGLES - 300,000
RABBITOHS - 300,000
ROOSTERS - 300,000
WARRIORS - 200,000
PANTHERS - 225,000
SHARKS - 225,000
RAIDERS - 200,000

That said not all these clubs have been successful at converting interests into crowds and memberships.

You could argue a ranking roughly like this though -

1. Broncos
2. Storm

3 to 6.
Eels (just appear to be a cut above the others in terms of avg & max reach, that said I think they've failed in the crowds dept, they should - in theory - have the largest or 2nd largest Sydney crowds)

Tigers (bigger maximum, stronger TV performer than others, probably an argument to suggest that they have capitalised on crowds more than Eels)

Bulldogs (stronger crowds than Eels & Tigers but probably a fractionally smaller reach)

Dragons (lower crowds than the Western 3 but a bigger geographic spread and strong away support)

7 & 8.

Knights & Cowboys (similar crowds, edge to Knights, reaches & away support)

9 to 12. Titans, Rabbitohs, Roosters, Sea Eagles - (very similar long term avg & maximums & TV appeal)

13. Panthers (have a stronger max than bottom 3)
14. Warriors (just above the bottom 2 but stronger crowds)
15. Sharks
16. Raiders

 

[sensesmaybenumbed]

Good to see the storm getting some support, but those figures would contain a vast number of Victorians who never go to the game or watch it on tele.

It's state based lip service from many of the supposed million, but they do have their niche.

 

[In-goal]

If there continues to be a perceived big 3, under a floating fixture, where does that leave the rest?

 

[johns_reds]

It is a self fulfilling prophesy

More TV = more sponsorship = better facilities / squad = better performance = more fans = more TV

Lets try 5 years of the Broncos, Dragons, Eels and Bulldogs being on the Graveyard shift on Fox every week, and the Sharks, Raiders, Warriors and Knights getting the friday night live game, and see what the comp looks like then.....

Only when we are in control of our own destiny, and commit to fairly allocating TV exposure, will this comp be anywhere near fair.

Like that will ever happen.

The day this happens the day our tv value drops, stations don't pay for crap teams, they pay top dollars for top ratings, this means broncos, st George, bulldogs etc will remain at prime time

 

[docbrown]

Good to see the storm getting some support, but those figures would contain a vast number of Victorians who never go to the game or watch it on tele.

It's state based lip service from many of the supposed million, but they do have their niche.

Well firstly unless they have Foxtel they will rarely be able to follow it on television - but - they still poll highly. This means that despite the media blackout, about 25% of Melbourne actively identify themselves as Storm supporters.

In a further survey poll 12% of Storm supporters actually attended an NRL match in the 2010-2011 financial year - approximately 110,000 individual people or so.

If the Storm could convert a quarter of Storm supporters who actually attended games into season ticket holders - they would come close to selling out every match.

The potential is there.

 

[docbrown]

If there continues to be a perceived big 3, under a floating fixture, where does that leave the rest?

Under the Channel 10/Foxtel plan, as people will be able to access all games, overall interest will grow hence all clubs will grow. Of course those with already large followings will grow larger but clubs that had been denied exposure - Raiders, Sharks etc - will grow at a faster rate.

Under the current restricted floating schedule however, the divide would just grow further.