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Consecutive top four finishment

Did you even f**king read this?

  • Yes

    Votes: 5 45.5%
  • No

    Votes: 1 9.1%
  • I haven't even read this question

    Votes: 5 45.5%

  • Total voters
    11
  • Poll closed .

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,529
So I was just having a shit, and the thought struck me. This year could be a fairly significant achievement for us, even before we get to the finals. If we again finish in the top four, it will be the first time we have achieved consecutive top four finishes since '98-'99. Only the second time we've done it in the last 20 years (21 if you include 1998).

A top four finish is a great indicator of quality, because it requires performance over 24 rounds, rather than the hit-and-miss nature of finals footy. However, there are (I believe) plenty of teams capable of finishing in the top four each year, given some luck (a couple of arsey close wins, plus a lucky injury toll and probably major injury woes to a couple of rivals). Obviously then, finishing top four in consecutive years starts to require even more luck, or more likely, extreme quality within the club.

So after wiping my arse and washing my hands I decided to have a look at the breakdown for top four finishes and consecutive runs thereof. It is interesting reading, unless you think that type of thing is boring, in which case it isn't.

Most top four finishes since 1998 (inclusive):
12 Melbourne
10 Easts
9 Brisbane
6 Canterbury
6 Manly
5 Newcastle
5 Parramatta
4 Cronulla
4 Penrith
3 Canberra
3 North Queensland
3 Souths
3 St George-Illawarra
3 Wests
2 Gold Coast
2 New Zealand

Probably not too many surprises there. But when we look at longest streaks of consecutive top four seasons we see something even less boring:

Longest consecutive runs of top four seasons (minimum two):
Melbourne: 4 ('06-'09), 3 ('15-'17), 3 ('11-'13), 2 ('98-'99)
Easts: 3 ('13-'15), 3 ('02-'04), 2 ('99-'00)
Brisbane: 4 ('95-'98), 3 ('04-'06)
Canterbury: 2 ('03-'04)
Manly: 4 ('11-14), 2 ('07-'08)
Newcastle: 3 ('00-'02), 2 ('97-'98)
Parramatta: 2 ('98-'99)
Penrith: 2 ('03-'04)
North Queensland: 2 ('15-'16)
Souths: 3 ('12-'14)
St George: 2 ('09-'10)
Wests: 2 ('10-'11)
Gold Coast: 2 ('09-'10)

I treated the split 1997 season as a combined competition and just took the top two from each comp. Sloppy, but get f**ked if you don't like it.

Bolded denotes a run where a grand final was won, yes including by cheating. I understand the Storm were cheating during at least one of those runs (as well as two grand final wins), but this is just to recognise competitive quality within the club, not to pat anyone on the back.

It's also worth noting that not all of those runs ended with a grand final win. Some started with the win while most featured the premiership (or non-premiership in the case of '07 and '09) somewhere during the streak, but the point is that a streak of consecutive top four finishes is a clear indication of quality. Where there is a grand final win, we can see in hindsight that it was to be somewhat expected, and where there wasn't a premiership we can at least see that the team was a genuine chance, rather than just a flash in the pan (like the Raiders in 2016).

Interestingly, every team in the past 20 years that finished top four in at least three consecutive years won a grand final during that streak:

Brisbane ('95-'98) won in 1998
Newcastle ('00-'02) won in 2001
Easts ('02-'04) won in 2002
Brisbane ('04-'06) won in 2006
Melbourne ('06-'09) won in 2007 and 2009 (and yes I know they were cheating FFS!)
Manly ('11-'14) won in 2011
Melbourne ('11-'13) won in 2012 (they were probably cheating here too, the f**king merkins)
Easts ('13-'15) won in 2013
Souths ('12-'14) won in 2014 (these three consecutive top four finishes were their only top four finishes since 1989)
Melbourne ('15-'17) won in 2017 (CHEATS!!!)

Of the 11 teams that experienced only two consecutive top four seasons, only four (36%) didn't win a premiership in that time - Parra ('98-'99), Easts ('99-'00), Gold Coast ('09-'10) and Wests ('10-'11).

Every grand final was won by a team finishing in the top four, but the only grand finals (in the past 20 years) that weren't won during a string of consecutive top four finishes were these:

2000 (Brisbane, though they were top four in both 1998 and 2002)
2005 (Wests - a genuine flash in the pan)
2016 (Cronulla - also a flash in the pan? They had a very old team that managed to not be injured on grand final day)
 

strider

Post Whore
Messages
72,320
So cronulla have had 4 top four finishes but no consecutives

I found it a bit disconcerting that you started with since 98 stats and then started including 97 ..... see i f**king read it all

Im also worried about top 4 talk .... dont jinx us merkin!
 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
60,739
So I was just having a shit, and the thought struck me. This year could be a fairly significant achievement for us, even before we get to the finals. If we again finish in the top four, it will be the first time we have achieved consecutive top four finishes since '98-'99. Only the second time we've done it in the last 20 years (21 if you include 1998).

A top four finish is a great indicator of quality, because it requires performance over 24 rounds, rather than the hit-and-miss nature of finals footy. However, there are (I believe) plenty of teams capable of finishing in the top four each year, given some luck (a couple of arsey close wins, plus a lucky injury toll and probably major injury woes to a couple of rivals). Obviously then, finishing top four in consecutive years starts to require even more luck, or more likely, extreme quality within the club.

So after wiping my arse and washing my hands I decided to have a look at the breakdown for top four finishes and consecutive runs thereof. It is interesting reading, unless you think that type of thing is boring, in which case it isn't.

Most top four finishes since 1998 (inclusive):
12 Melbourne
10 Easts
9 Brisbane
6 Canterbury
6 Manly
5 Newcastle
5 Parramatta
4 Cronulla
4 Penrith
3 Canberra
3 North Queensland
3 Souths
3 St George-Illawarra
3 Wests
2 Gold Coast
2 New Zealand

Probably not too many surprises there. But when we look at longest streaks of consecutive top four seasons we see something even less boring:

Longest consecutive runs of top four seasons (minimum two):
Melbourne: 4 ('06-'09), 3 ('15-'17), 3 ('11-'13), 2 ('98-'99)
Easts: 3 ('13-'15), 3 ('02-'04), 2 ('99-'00)
Brisbane: 4 ('95-'98), 3 ('04-'06)
Canterbury: 2 ('03-'04)
Manly: 4 ('11-14), 2 ('07-'08)
Newcastle: 3 ('00-'02), 2 ('97-'98)
Parramatta: 2 ('98-'99)
Penrith: 2 ('03-'04)
North Queensland: 2 ('15-'16)
Souths: 3 ('12-'14)
St George: 2 ('09-'10)
Wests: 2 ('10-'11)
Gold Coast: 2 ('09-'10)

I treated the split 1997 season as a combined competition and just took the top two from each comp. Sloppy, but get f**ked if you don't like it.

Bolded denotes a run where a grand final was won, yes including by cheating. I understand the Storm were cheating during at least one of those runs (as well as two grand final wins), but this is just to recognise competitive quality within the club, not to pat anyone on the back.

It's also worth noting that not all of those runs ended with a grand final win. Some started with the win while most featured the premiership (or non-premiership in the case of '07 and '09) somewhere during the streak, but the point is that a streak of consecutive top four finishes is a clear indication of quality. Where there is a grand final win, we can see in hindsight that it was to be somewhat expected, and where there wasn't a premiership we can at least see that the team was a genuine chance, rather than just a flash in the pan (like the Raiders in 2016).

Interestingly, every team in the past 20 years that finished top four in at least three consecutive years won a grand final during that streak:

Brisbane ('95-'98) won in 1998
Newcastle ('00-'02) won in 2001
Easts ('02-'04) won in 2002
Brisbane ('04-'06) won in 2006
Melbourne ('06-'09) won in 2007 and 2009 (and yes I know they were cheating FFS!)
Manly ('11-'14) won in 2011
Melbourne ('11-'13) won in 2012 (they were probably cheating here too, the f**king merkins)
Easts ('13-'15) won in 2013
Souths ('12-'14) won in 2014 (these three consecutive top four finishes were their only top four finishes since 1989)
Melbourne ('15-'17) won in 2017 (CHEATS!!!)

Of the 11 teams that experienced only two consecutive top four seasons, only four (36%) didn't win a premiership in that time - Parra ('98-'99), Easts ('99-'00), Gold Coast ('09-'10) and Wests ('10-'11).

Every grand final was won by a team finishing in the top four, but the only grand finals (in the past 20 years) that weren't won during a string of consecutive top four finishes were these:

2000 (Brisbane, though they were top four in both 1998 and 2002)
2005 (Wests - a genuine flash in the pan)
2016 (Cronulla - also a flash in the pan? They had a very old team that managed to not be injured on grand final day)

Makes you wonder about the whole bidet thing. Are they effective ? Why has their use not taken off here ? Do children confuse them with bubblers ?

A15C993E-0B4A-4691-A6B4-C1DAE7E77B46.jpeg
 

Gary Gutful

Immortal
Messages
42,876
It was actually a good read...even if it just validated what I intuitively thought.

I hope we become a fixture in the Top 4 over the next few years. If we continue to do it enough times then a GF is highly likely.

Great job Pou. Some of my best posts also come to me whilst I am on the shitter.
 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
60,739
It was actually a good read...even if it just validated what I intuitively thought.

I hope we become a fixture in the Top 4 over the next few years. If we continue to do it enough times then a GF is highly likely.

Great job Pou. Some of my best posts also come to me whilst I am on the shitter.
Pretty sure there is an App where merkins chat to each other whilst having a crap.
 

forward pass

Coach
Messages
10,174
I am not sure finishment is an actual word. If it is, then it shouldn't be.

Although I am somewhat impressed that you take a thesaurus into the shitter with you.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
67,529
As for the Sharks, they weren’t anywhere near as much a flash in the pan as the Tigers. Cronulla finished 6th in 2015 and 5th last year, either side of their 2016 top four finish (and premiership). The 2005 premiership winning Tigers, otoh, missed the finals altogether in ‘04 and ‘06.
 

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