Poupou Escobar
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So I was just having a shit, and the thought struck me. This year could be a fairly significant achievement for us, even before we get to the finals. If we again finish in the top four, it will be the first time we have achieved consecutive top four finishes since '98-'99. Only the second time we've done it in the last 20 years (21 if you include 1998).
A top four finish is a great indicator of quality, because it requires performance over 24 rounds, rather than the hit-and-miss nature of finals footy. However, there are (I believe) plenty of teams capable of finishing in the top four each year, given some luck (a couple of arsey close wins, plus a lucky injury toll and probably major injury woes to a couple of rivals). Obviously then, finishing top four in consecutive years starts to require even more luck, or more likely, extreme quality within the club.
So after wiping my arse and washing my hands I decided to have a look at the breakdown for top four finishes and consecutive runs thereof. It is interesting reading, unless you think that type of thing is boring, in which case it isn't.
Most top four finishes since 1998 (inclusive):
12 Melbourne
10 Easts
9 Brisbane
6 Canterbury
6 Manly
5 Newcastle
5 Parramatta
4 Cronulla
4 Penrith
3 Canberra
3 North Queensland
3 Souths
3 St George-Illawarra
3 Wests
2 Gold Coast
2 New Zealand
Probably not too many surprises there. But when we look at longest streaks of consecutive top four seasons we see something even less boring:
Longest consecutive runs of top four seasons (minimum two):
Melbourne: 4 ('06-'09), 3 ('15-'17), 3 ('11-'13), 2 ('98-'99)
Easts: 3 ('13-'15), 3 ('02-'04), 2 ('99-'00)
Brisbane: 4 ('95-'98), 3 ('04-'06)
Canterbury: 2 ('03-'04)
Manly: 4 ('11-14), 2 ('07-'08)
Newcastle: 3 ('00-'02), 2 ('97-'98)
Parramatta: 2 ('98-'99)
Penrith: 2 ('03-'04)
North Queensland: 2 ('15-'16)
Souths: 3 ('12-'14)
St George: 2 ('09-'10)
Wests: 2 ('10-'11)
Gold Coast: 2 ('09-'10)
I treated the split 1997 season as a combined competition and just took the top two from each comp. Sloppy, but get f**ked if you don't like it.
Bolded denotes a run where a grand final was won, yes including by cheating. I understand the Storm were cheating during at least one of those runs (as well as two grand final wins), but this is just to recognise competitive quality within the club, not to pat anyone on the back.
It's also worth noting that not all of those runs ended with a grand final win. Some started with the win while most featured the premiership (or non-premiership in the case of '07 and '09) somewhere during the streak, but the point is that a streak of consecutive top four finishes is a clear indication of quality. Where there is a grand final win, we can see in hindsight that it was to be somewhat expected, and where there wasn't a premiership we can at least see that the team was a genuine chance, rather than just a flash in the pan (like the Raiders in 2016).
Interestingly, every team in the past 20 years that finished top four in at least three consecutive years won a grand final during that streak:
Brisbane ('95-'98) won in 1998
Newcastle ('00-'02) won in 2001
Easts ('02-'04) won in 2002
Brisbane ('04-'06) won in 2006
Melbourne ('06-'09) won in 2007 and 2009 (and yes I know they were cheating FFS!)
Manly ('11-'14) won in 2011
Melbourne ('11-'13) won in 2012 (they were probably cheating here too, the f**king merkins)
Easts ('13-'15) won in 2013
Souths ('12-'14) won in 2014 (these three consecutive top four finishes were their only top four finishes since 1989)
Melbourne ('15-'17) won in 2017 (CHEATS!!!)
Of the 11 teams that experienced only two consecutive top four seasons, only four (36%) didn't win a premiership in that time - Parra ('98-'99), Easts ('99-'00), Gold Coast ('09-'10) and Wests ('10-'11).
Every grand final was won by a team finishing in the top four, but the only grand finals (in the past 20 years) that weren't won during a string of consecutive top four finishes were these:
2000 (Brisbane, though they were top four in both 1998 and 2002)
2005 (Wests - a genuine flash in the pan)
2016 (Cronulla - also a flash in the pan? They had a very old team that managed to not be injured on grand final day)
A top four finish is a great indicator of quality, because it requires performance over 24 rounds, rather than the hit-and-miss nature of finals footy. However, there are (I believe) plenty of teams capable of finishing in the top four each year, given some luck (a couple of arsey close wins, plus a lucky injury toll and probably major injury woes to a couple of rivals). Obviously then, finishing top four in consecutive years starts to require even more luck, or more likely, extreme quality within the club.
So after wiping my arse and washing my hands I decided to have a look at the breakdown for top four finishes and consecutive runs thereof. It is interesting reading, unless you think that type of thing is boring, in which case it isn't.
Most top four finishes since 1998 (inclusive):
12 Melbourne
10 Easts
9 Brisbane
6 Canterbury
6 Manly
5 Newcastle
5 Parramatta
4 Cronulla
4 Penrith
3 Canberra
3 North Queensland
3 Souths
3 St George-Illawarra
3 Wests
2 Gold Coast
2 New Zealand
Probably not too many surprises there. But when we look at longest streaks of consecutive top four seasons we see something even less boring:
Longest consecutive runs of top four seasons (minimum two):
Melbourne: 4 ('06-'09), 3 ('15-'17), 3 ('11-'13), 2 ('98-'99)
Easts: 3 ('13-'15), 3 ('02-'04), 2 ('99-'00)
Brisbane: 4 ('95-'98), 3 ('04-'06)
Canterbury: 2 ('03-'04)
Manly: 4 ('11-14), 2 ('07-'08)
Newcastle: 3 ('00-'02), 2 ('97-'98)
Parramatta: 2 ('98-'99)
Penrith: 2 ('03-'04)
North Queensland: 2 ('15-'16)
Souths: 3 ('12-'14)
St George: 2 ('09-'10)
Wests: 2 ('10-'11)
Gold Coast: 2 ('09-'10)
I treated the split 1997 season as a combined competition and just took the top two from each comp. Sloppy, but get f**ked if you don't like it.
Bolded denotes a run where a grand final was won, yes including by cheating. I understand the Storm were cheating during at least one of those runs (as well as two grand final wins), but this is just to recognise competitive quality within the club, not to pat anyone on the back.
It's also worth noting that not all of those runs ended with a grand final win. Some started with the win while most featured the premiership (or non-premiership in the case of '07 and '09) somewhere during the streak, but the point is that a streak of consecutive top four finishes is a clear indication of quality. Where there is a grand final win, we can see in hindsight that it was to be somewhat expected, and where there wasn't a premiership we can at least see that the team was a genuine chance, rather than just a flash in the pan (like the Raiders in 2016).
Interestingly, every team in the past 20 years that finished top four in at least three consecutive years won a grand final during that streak:
Brisbane ('95-'98) won in 1998
Newcastle ('00-'02) won in 2001
Easts ('02-'04) won in 2002
Brisbane ('04-'06) won in 2006
Melbourne ('06-'09) won in 2007 and 2009 (and yes I know they were cheating FFS!)
Manly ('11-'14) won in 2011
Melbourne ('11-'13) won in 2012 (they were probably cheating here too, the f**king merkins)
Easts ('13-'15) won in 2013
Souths ('12-'14) won in 2014 (these three consecutive top four finishes were their only top four finishes since 1989)
Melbourne ('15-'17) won in 2017 (CHEATS!!!)
Of the 11 teams that experienced only two consecutive top four seasons, only four (36%) didn't win a premiership in that time - Parra ('98-'99), Easts ('99-'00), Gold Coast ('09-'10) and Wests ('10-'11).
Every grand final was won by a team finishing in the top four, but the only grand finals (in the past 20 years) that weren't won during a string of consecutive top four finishes were these:
2000 (Brisbane, though they were top four in both 1998 and 2002)
2005 (Wests - a genuine flash in the pan)
2016 (Cronulla - also a flash in the pan? They had a very old team that managed to not be injured on grand final day)