Crazy TAB odds for the Panthers...get on!

[marty65]

Top 4.....26.00
Top 8......5.00...:shock:.

Any other fellow Panther fans taken advantage of these odds yet? I'm a bit concerned that whoever framed these odds might have some kind of substance abuse problem...:lol:. These odds are crazy. Get on before they wake up to themselves. I already put on as much as I can afford. I know 9 months is a long time to wait for your money. But I'm a patient man...
How can Parramatta be 2.40 for the Top 8, compared to 5.00 for the Panthers???...:?. We finished ahead of them last season, and made much better signings for next season. They must think that Ricky Stuart is a miracle worker.

I reckon that Panthers are a 50/50 to make the top 8. (therefore fair odds should be around 2.00). Anything over 3.00 is sensational. I noticed that another bookie has them at 2.75. Thats a lot more sensible.
As for the Top 4...yeah I agree that it should be a long shot...but 26.00??
Thats too generous! Should be no more than 10.00.

Anyway, I just thought I'd alert people to this bargain. Do with it what you like....

P.S. I noticed that the 5.00 has dropped to 4.50 now (maybe it was due to the bets that I put on)...but even 4.50 is great IMO. Cheers.

 

[Diesel]

Not bad odds for the Pennys to make the 8. Ivan took a year or so to take the Warriors from cellar dwellers to a regular top 8 team. We missed it 2006 when we started the season on -4pts by 1 win and then again in 2009, not bad for 6 seasons.

Parra are acting like Stuart is a saviour but you only have to look at the Sharks and Easts when he left.

 

[marty65]

With 15 new arrivals at the club (who they picked and not inherited from the previous administration),Ivan and Gus will have a chance to put their inprint on the club. There were already some good signs last season, but now I really like where the club is heading. The incoming players are no superstars, but there is a good mix of experience and lots of potential.

 

[mxlegend99]

Even if the club had made no improvements, 5 to 1 odds for something as simple as making the top 8 is great value for any team. Every season there's a team that comes from nowhere to crack the top 8 and it's worth throwing $10 on with the chance to make $50 back.

 

[franklin2323]

Even if the club had made no improvements, 5 to 1 odds for something as simple as making the top 8 is great value for any team. Every season there's a team that comes from nowhere to crack the top 8 and it's worth throwing $10 on with the chance to make $50 back.

Every year I throw $20 on us to win the comp. $53 we are atm now's the time to put it on

 

[marty65]

In these days of the Salary Cap, the comp is so even that no team should be 5.00 to make the semis. I mean half the teams wil make it. Its interesting that the Panthers are the big outsiders. Next best price are the Titans at 4.00 (not a bad bet either). According to the bookies we will have the worst team in the comp. Even if we dont make the semis, I would put my house on the fact that we wont be getting the wooden spoon.

 

[hardbaby]

Save your money guys. You are building for next year (hopefully you get Thurston) or maybe the year after. You have no chance of making the 4 and damn near no chance of making the 8. You should be happy with 10th - 12th. Even finishing that high is probably 50:50. The bookies make a lot of money by people following their hearts not their heads. TAB is rich enough.

 

[mxlegend99]

Save your money guys. You are building for next year (hopefully you get Thurston) or maybe the year after. You have no chance of making the 4 and damn near no chance of making the 8. You should be happy with 10th - 12th. Even finishing that high is probably 50:50. The bookies make a lot of money by people following their hearts not their heads. TAB is rich enough.

Did you see our 2010 roster? And how it stacked against our 2009 and 2011 rosters. You can never rule out any team before the season starts, and any team at 5 to 1 odds for something as simple as cracking the top 8 (something that 50% of the teams will do) is worth throwing a few bucks you don't need at to hopefully make 5 times your money back.

Plus we have had arguably the best recruitment of any team in the NRL for 2013. Sure we've lost a couple of big players too, but Gordon and Lewis were lucky to play a full season between them most years. Hell we had a better record in 2012 in the games Luke Lewis missed. But that was partly due to having Flash come back... he seemed to be more crucial to us winning then Lewis.

We definitely have some areas that still need improving. But we have made some huge changes for 2013 and for all we know could have found a perfectly blend with our recruits for a solid top 8 side that could push for the top 4 if they got on a roll. Hard to see it happening with Walsh, but again in 2010 they managed to do so. Any team has the potential to get on a roll. Players like Whare, Manu, Segayaro, Brown etc. are huge upgrades over some of the blokes who were certainties this season.

 

[hardbaby]

Legend, I admire your enthusiasm and I am not saying your team will get flogged every week. Yes I think you have signed some good players but they aren't great players and you have a huge problem at half back. Your signings are a mixture of classy, clever guys (Segeyaro, Whare) and no nonsense toilers (Manu, Brown). But they are guys that signed looking for an opportunity because they couldn't crack the starting team at their previous clubs. And you have lost two stars. Your team will improve and play tough, uncompromising football. But it won't make the 8. I'm a sports punter. I look at markets all the time and that is a sucker's bet. 2014, with Thurston...different story.

 

[marty65]

Hardbaby. I'm a sports punter too. A good portion of my income comes from this activity. I study markets (and teams) in a number of sports most days of the week. Most likely I've been doing this longer than you, but I could be wrong about that. It has certainly been many, many years since the TAB made money out of me.... I respect your opinion, but I am curious mate. What odds would you offer for this bet? Your description of this bet as a sucker bet made me laugh. Are you saying that there is absolutely NO chance of Panthers making the top 8? Or do you find the 5.00 odds bad value? What odds would you consider good value here? 10, 20, or maybe 100/1? Panthers are my favourite team, but doesn't mean I like to back them with my money just for the sake of it. Last season I didn't trust them with even $1.00 (the Storm and Cowboys got that responsibility). But I see this coming season a lot different.

 

[Luke Bowden]

Legend, I admire your enthusiasm and I am not saying your team will get flogged every week. Yes I think you have signed some good players but they aren't great players and you have a huge problem at half back. Your signings are a mixture of classy, clever guys (Segeyaro, Whare) and no nonsense toilers (Manu, Brown). But they are guys that signed looking for an opportunity because they couldn't crack the starting team at their previous clubs. And you have lost two stars. Your team will improve and play tough, uncompromising football. But it won't make the 8. I'm a sports punter. I look at markets all the time and that is a sucker's bet. 2014, with Thurston...different story.

You forget some exciting jnrs coming through as well as the addition of Barret in the coaching ranks.

I think 5 bucks to make the top 8 is crazy odds. I'll be laying a sneaky 100 on them. Panthers Fan or not, I like those odds!

 

[hindy111]

I think penrith are a chance of 7,8.
Parra have the spine of a good team.And keep in mind Hayne missed most the season and sandow didnt fire a bullet.They will also improve.
I like penriths team for next year.The only concern for mine is fullback and halves-The rest looks very competetive.If walsh can play consitant and coote gets a go at 5/8 i think its a good looking side.
Problem is
Melbourne-Dogs-Cowboys-Canbera-Sharks-Souths all have jsut as strong or stronger sides for next year.
Rossters will improve too.As will the wariors.Brisbane as well

 

[hardbaby]

Hey Marty. I'm going to look into my crystal ball and say that your Christian name is the same as mine and you are 5 years older, so I bow to your seniority.

Re betting, I follow the Dragons and have bet against them when the play the Raiders for over a decade now. I bet big and cheer against them. It is the only time I bet against my team but it's easy money. I don't feel guilty doing it. It's about the head, not the heart.

Re Panthers, of course you have a chance to make the 8. Sport's a funny thing. It throws up unusual results. But if you look at the 8, you would have to say Storm, Eagles, Sharks, Cowboys, Rabbits and Dogs are pretty much certainties. And if they don't make it, it's because some bolter has come through and the Panthers won't be that bolter. That is 6 places gone.

Then you have Broncos, Dragons, Raiders, Warriors, Roosters, Knights that look good, but have question marks. They are far more likely to sneak a position than the Panthers. Then you have Panthers, Titans, Tigers and Eels that are capable on their day.

So there are 3 tiers - top (6 teams), middle (6 teams) and bottom (4 teams). And the Panthers are in the bottom tier and pushing towards the middle tier. You do the maths. Do you think those odds are good? Nah man. Hold off and take the bet in 2014. You'll be unders then.

 

[Doomednow]

5 dollars for any team to make the top half of the competition in this league is fantastic.

 

[hardbaby]

5 dollars for any team to make the top half of the competition in this league is fantastic.

No it's not mate. Parra? Titans? Tigers? Panthers? Not enough. It's a team sport and played over many rounds. The cream always rises to the top. Maybe not all of it, all the time. But enough to take 75% of the 8 and leave a whole heap of clubs chasing the bottom two positions. There are a number of teams more likely than Penrith to take positions 7 & 8 and some of those are far, far more likely.

 

[Diesel]

I'm not sure if they'll make the 8, but Ivan is capable of making the 8. Pennies to side between 7-11th IMO

 

[de$$ie]

oh god my sides. a penrith supporter who makes a living off gambling? thats called an addiction you mong, get help.

 

[Luke Bowden]

oh god my sides. a penrith supporter who makes a living off gambling? thats called an addiction you mong, get help.

Last year I cleared $42,000 sports betting (if you ask the ATO) I've been a die hard fan of the Panthers since die hard fan since I was born, I haven't bet on them since Presto left. Believe me, if you can still get $5.00 for a top 8 finish, its good odds. You probably won't be able to get it any longer because those of us who know, bet ot on it.

 

[hardbaby]

I'll place it in perspective. As of now, Panthers are $4 to make the Top 8 and $17 to make the Top 4. The Eels are $2.50 to make the Top 8 and $7 to make the Top 4! I'm not joking by the way. Are they twice as likely as your boys? Hardly. It represents the early flow of money. Early odds can be deceiving. They are designed to induce dodgy bets.

The TAB is just taking easy money off mug punters (I am not referring to you directly by the way, so please don't take offence). They are unconcerned by either of those sides but will shorten the odds until the serious money comes in for the teams that represent a serious payout. That money will come later.

By the way Luke, as a betting man, you must be tempted by the Cowboys at $13 to win the comp. Best pack in the game (expecting Taomololo to go big and have Tariq back from injury). Lui back to partner Thurston in the halves. Fast, clever backline. Were unlucky not to go one step further this year.

 

[Luke Bowden]

Yeah, that's a decent price for the Cows, to be honest, The NRL is way to close a comp to be putting any sort of real bet on. I'll stick with NFL for the time being.