Easts Tigers Enter Expansion Race

[MugaB]

Also, factor in that AFL's two relocations (well one being a rare merger/relocation) were both to non-AFL cities.

That suggests AFL cities- namely Perth & Adelaide - may be the best candidates for NRL club relocation... in the unlikely event it ever happens that is.

2 afl vic teams play GF in 2nd largest afl city

2 nrl syd teams play GF in 2nd largest nrl city

The Synergy is remarkable, also yes, it would help if they had a rolling start off the back of an existing franchise top down

 

[Perth Red]

We really need to stop with this myth. Firstly, they don't reach anywhere near 80% of the population and advertisers care about population centres, not dots on a map. Again, here are the top 15 population centres in Australia and the NRL utterly dominates. They would kill for the geographical heartlands to be switched which is why they are wasting millions to get a small foothold in ours.

Yes, we need to do more to sure up our heartlands, no doubt. We also need to get better at negotiating with TV, sponsors and Governments because we are shit at it. But they are the reason we are behind, not because we are missing a Perth and Adelaide dot on the map.

Top 10 Population Centres:
1. Sydney - NRL
2. Melbourne - AFL
3. Brisbane - NRL
4. Perth - AFL
5. Adelaide - AFL
6. Gold Coast - NRL
7. Canberra - NRL
8. Newcastle - NRL
9. Central Coast - NRL
10. Wollongong - NRL
11. Sunshine Coast - NRL
12. Hobart - AFL
13. Townsville - NRL
14. Geelong - AFL
15. Cairns - NRL

Bonus round: We have a good foothold in New Zealand's biggest market, Auckland. That is just fantasy for the AFL. We dominate and it's not even close. We just need to get better at translating that into dollars.

In reality

Top 10 Population Centres:
1. Sydney - NRL - strong afl presence
2. Melbourne - AFL - weak nrl presence
3. Brisbane - NRL - strong afl presence
4. Perth - AFL - zero nrl
5. Adelaide - AFL - zero nrl
6. Gold Coast - NRL - equal afl presence
7. Canberra - NRL - weak afl presence
8. Newcastle - NRL - zero afl
9. Central Coast - NRL - zero afl
10. Wollongong - NRL - zero afl
11. Sunshine Coast - weak NRL - zero afl
12. Hobart - AFL - zero nrl
13. Townsville - NRL - zero afl
14. Geelong - AFL - zero nrl
15. Cairns - weak nrl - zero afl

in the 5 big cities where metro ratings count nrl has 2+1 and afl has 3+2

 

[Hartwood]

In reality

Top 10 Population Centres:
1. Sydney - NRL - strong afl presence
2. Melbourne - AFL - weak nrl presence
3. Brisbane - NRL - strong afl presence
4. Perth - AFL - zero nrl
5. Adelaide - AFL - zero nrl
6. Gold Coast - NRL - equal afl presence
7. Canberra - NRL - weak afl presence
8. Newcastle - NRL - zero afl
9. Central Coast - NRL - zero afl
10. Wollongong - NRL - zero afl
11. Sunshine Coast - weak NRL - zero afl
12. Hobart - AFL - zero nrl
13. Townsville - NRL - zero afl
14. Geelong - AFL - zero nrl
15. Cairns - weak nrl - zero afl

in the 5 big cities where metro ratings count nrl has 2+1 and afl has 3+2

What is this post? Cairns and Sunshine Coast do not have weak NRL presence, nor does Brisbane have a strong AFL presence. Cairns does also have quite a strong AFL presence as well for some reason

 

[mongoose]

I would say when the Lions are going well AFL has a pretty strong presence in Brisbane, people denying this have got their head buried in the sand. NRL could have the same thing in Perth if it really wanted....

Difference between League and AFL in Brisbane is that AFL begins and ends with the Lions. Outside of the Lions AFL is invisible. League is far more ingrained with many layers.

 

[flippikat]

I would say when the Lions are going well AFL has a pretty strong presence in Brisbane, people denying this have got their head buried in the sand. NRL could have the same thing in Perth if it really wanted....

Difference between League and AFL in Brisbane is that AFL begins and ends with the Lions. Outside of the Lions AFL is invisible. League is far more ingrained with many layers.

From what I gather, that's also a key difference between AFL in Brisbane and rugby codes (league and union) in Perth - it sounds like the ex-pats from rugby heartlands are a decent sized market in Perth (more than ex-pat AFL supporters in Brisbane?) - @Perth Red may be able to elaborate on that.. but I think it's a great untapped market because of it.. maybe more so than Melbourne.

 

[Perth Red]

From what I gather, that's also a key difference between AFL in Brisbane and rugby codes (league and union) in Perth - it sounds like the ex-pats from rugby heartlands are a decent sized market in Perth (more than ex-pat AFL supporters in Brisbane?) - @Perth Red may be able to elaborate on that.. but I think it's a great untapped market because of it.. maybe more so than Melbourne.

Yes there is a very sizeable population here from traditional rl territory.

 

[Pippen94]

I would say when the Lions are going well AFL has a strong presence in Brisbane, people denying this have got their head buried in the sand. NRL could have the same thing in Perth if it really wanted....

I would say when the Lions are going well AFL has a pretty strong presence in Brisbane, people denying this have got their head buried in the sand. NRL could have the same thing in Perth if it really wanted....

Difference between League and AFL in Brisbane is that AFL begins and ends with the Lions. Outside of the Lions AFL is invisible. League is far more ingrained with many layers.

Weren't going well a few years when losing & competition needed to bail them out

 

[Pippen94]

Yes there is a very sizeable population here from traditional rl territory.

6k watch on FTA every week

 

[The Great Dane]

We really need to stop with this myth. Firstly, they don't reach anywhere near 80% of the population and advertisers care about population centres, not dots on a map. Again, here are the top 15 population centres in Australia and the NRL utterly dominates. They would kill for the geographical heartlands to be switched which is why they are wasting millions to get a small foothold in ours.

Yes, we need to do more to sure up our heartlands, no doubt. We also need to get better at negotiating with TV, sponsors and Governments because we are shit at it. But they are the reason we are behind, not because we are missing a Perth and Adelaide dot on the map.

Not that I'm claiming to be an expert, but you simply don't understand how commercial broadcasting licenses and advertising works.

I'm oversimplifying it a lot (otherwise I'd have to write a book just to try and explain it all, and I'm definitely not the person to write that book), but free to air broadcasters are licensed by the government to broadcast in designated markets across the country, and there are only so many licenses for each market.

Obviously there are metro markets and regional markets, and the metro markets are pretty self explanatory (in yellow), but the regional markets represent large disparate populations, not just singular regions/cities.

This creates markets within the broadcasting industry that aren't really natural outside of it. For example, as far as broadcasters and their advertisers are concerned the Sunshine Coast and CQ already have NRL content representing "their" market, the Cowboys.

This also means that outside of the potential of underserved markets where it might be worthwhile to add another NRL product for ratings reasons (which is debatable depending on the market and is a separate discussion), that every 'RL heartland' broadcasting market has at least one NRL team representing it (most more than one), except for Griffith and Central and East which aren't big enough to support teams, and the ratings and advertising gains from having their own teams wouldn't be there to make the venture worthwhile to broadcasters and major advertisers anyway.
In other words, aside from potentially underserved markets, the NRL's heartlands are 'shored up' from the broadcaster and major advertisers point of view.

This post is already a lot longer than I'd hoped so I'm going to be somewhat simplistic again; but to blue chip advertisers the most valuable timeslots to advertise on are primetime on the main channels. Obviously that's because, on average, that is when the most people are watching at any one time.
So, the programs that are most valuable to broadcasters to put into those timeslots are the ones that can attract the highest amount of viewers across as many markets, particularly the metro markets for obvious reasons, as possible, because that maximises ratings across as much of the population as possible, and makes their advertising space during those timeslots as valuable as possible to as many advertisers as possible.

In the case of sports products that means that the products that have teams in as many of those markets that can sustain one as possible are going to have a competitive advantage over the others that don't, as even if it's not the highest rating sports product in all of the markets that it's in it's still way more valuable to broadcasters and advertisers than a product that rates really well in half the markets but not at all in the other half.

 

[The Great Dane]

7. Canberra - NRL - weak afl presence

The AFL doe not have a weak presence in Canberra.

It's roughly as big as RL is in Canberra, if not slightly bigger, it's impossible to tell for sure without a comprehensive study into the subject, but the point is that AFL is highly competitive in Canberra.

 

[The Great Dane]

6k watch on FTA every week

And only 6k will ever watch on FTA in Perth each week if the NRL never engages with the market.

That's such a disingenuous point anyway.

 

[Pippen94]

Not that I'm claiming to be an expert, but you simply don't understand how commercial broadcasting licenses and advertising works.

I'm oversimplifying it a lot (otherwise I'd have to write a book just to try and explain it all, and I'm definitely not the person to write that book), but free to air broadcasters are licensed by the government to broadcast in designated markets across the country, and there are only so many licenses for each market.

Obviously there are metro markets and regional markets, and the metro markets are pretty self explanatory (in yellow), but the regional markets represent large disparate populations, not just singular regions/cities.

This creates markets within the broadcasting industry that aren't really natural outside of it. For example, as far as broadcasters and their advertisers are concerned the Sunshine Coast and CQ already have NRL content representing "their" market, the Cowboys.

This also means that outside of the potential of underserved markets where it might be worthwhile to add another NRL product for ratings reasons (which is debatable depending on the market and is a separate discussion), that every 'RL heartland' broadcasting market has at least one NRL team representing it (most more than one), except for Griffith and Central and East which aren't big enough to support teams, and the ratings and advertising gains from having their own teams wouldn't be there to make the venture worthwhile to broadcasters and major advertisers anyway.
In other words, aside from potentially underserved markets, the NRL's heartlands are 'shored up' from the broadcaster and major advertisers point of view.

This post is already a lot longer than I'd hoped so I'm going to be somewhat simplistic again; but to blue chip advertisers the most valuable timeslots to advertise on are primetime on the main channels. Obviously that's because, on average, that is when the most people are watching at any one time.
So, the programs that are most valuable to broadcasters to put into those timeslots are the ones that can attract the highest amount of viewers across as many markets, particularly the metro markets for obvious reasons, as possible, because that maximises ratings across as much of the population as possible, and makes their advertising space during those timeslots as valuable as possible to as many advertisers as possible.

In the case of sports products that means that the products that have teams in as many of those markets that can sustain one as possible are going to have a competitive advantage over the others that don't, as even if it's not the highest rating sports product in all of the markets that it's in it's still way more valuable to broadcasters and advertisers than a product that rates really well in half the markets but not at all in the other half.

The most valuable are the metro areas. Outside of that is too small to worry about. End of post

 

[Pippen94]

And only 6k will ever watch on FTA in Perth each week if the NRL never engages with the market.

That's such a disingenuous point anyway.

Can't say that for sure. Only thing for certain is there's very little interest despite what some would have you believe

 

[Vee]

Cairns does also have quite a strong AFL presence as well for some reason

Because of the money they have spent up here building a great club and ground on the main drag, AFL House/Academy for Cape York talent and on and on.

 

[mongoose]

The AFL doe not have a weak presence in Canberra.

It's roughly as big as RL is in Canberra, if not slightly bigger, it's impossible to tell for sure without a comprehensive study into the subject, but the point is that AFL is highly competitive in Canberra.

I guess it depends on the demographic. AFL is probably stronger in the public service sector there.. growing up in Canberra in the 90s and going to public schools League was well out in front amongst the kids. I knew a couple of kids who played AFL but it was never talked about or played in the school yard. Maybe it was more popular at private schools but then Rugby is also big in Canberra.

 

[Perth Red]

6k watch on FTA every week

100k watch the gf and soo. Without a club the nrl is irrelevant to most in perth

 

[Perth Red]

Can't say that for sure. Only thing for certain is there's very little interest despite what some would have you believe

 

[The Great Dane]

I guess it depends on the demographic. AFL is probably stronger in the public service sector there.. growing up in Canberra in the 90s and going to public schools League was well out in front amongst the kids. I knew a couple of kids who played AFL but it was never talked about or played in the school yard. Maybe it was more popular at private schools but then Rugby is also big in Canberra.

Aside from an on and off period during the 80s and early 90s when I lived in Japan, I have lived all my life in Canberra.

The only period of time when RL dominated AFL in Canberra as you describe was during the 90s, when for obvious reasons the Raiders, and by extension RL, were hot. However aside from that decade the market has been extremely competitive with AFL, RL, RU, and arguably Basketball for a short time, all having been the major sport in the market at one time or another since the 50s.

Currently as a result of the NRL badly neglecting the market for 20ish years now, the AFL investing an ungodly amount into it with the help of a very sympathetic government, and RU turning to shit nationally having major effects locally, the market is split pretty evenly between RL and Aussies Rules as I described above.

 

[The Great Dane]

The most valuable are the metro areas.

Yep, which is why it's crazy that the NRL doesn't have any local presence in two of them, and has no concrete plans to add them.

Finding the funding to support teams in Perth and Adelaide, and getting them into the competition as soon as it's feasible should be one of the NRL's main priorities. Instead they're 'rusted-on AFL states' that aren't worth 'wasting millions' on. It's insane.

Brisbane and Melbourne are underserviced as well. Though I doubt Melbourne will be able to support another team for a while yet.

Outside of that is too small to worry about. End of post

There's money to be made in every market, even the ones that don't have a large enough population to support a club.

In fact one of RL's biggest strategic mistakes in the past has been not mandating that it's FTA broadcasters must play the game in full at a reasonable time in all markets. The loss of exposure really killed the sport outside of the heartlands, and has made it that much harder for the NRL when trying to enter/re-enter markets.

 

[The Great Dane]

Can't say that for sure. Only thing for certain is there's very little interest despite what some would have you believe

BS...

It's extremely difficult to consume a product if the manufacturer refuses to sell it to you!

Historic crowd numbers in Perth and Adelaide prove that there's demand. Make the product available to them, promote it well, and they'll buy it. Given time NRL would grow just like the AFL has in NSW and Queensland.