Interesting take. I've marked a few up or down, sometimes with explanatory notes but most of it looks reasonably good.Whatya think? Should be good for a few arguments.
Monday Buzz: NRL salary cap deep dive — What every NRL club’s roster is really worth
March 6, 2022 - 5:58PMThe gap between the NRL’s premiership heavyweights and struggling clubs is widening.
Last year we blamed the new rules, more fatigue and a faster game for a record number of scoreline blowouts rather than the class and quality difference across the 16 clubs.
Valuing every player at every club – a task I undertook with colleague Brent Read – shows the salary cap is not working and we can’t blame the new rules.
An analysis of the 16 clubs shows that the Sydney Roosters and the Penrith Panthers are, at least on paper, worth up to $3 million worth than some of their rivals.
All clubs might be spending $9.6 million but the Roosters are actually worth $11.55 million and the Panthers $11.05 million by our calculations. At the same time the Cowboys are worth just $8.02 million and the Bulldogs $8.23 million.
So how did we value them? It’s mostly around form from last year and having sought the opinions of player agents and recruitment experts.
OVERPAID PLAYERS
There are a couple of interesting cases that illustrate why a club like the Cowboys will struggle to compete against their stronger rivals.
Val Holmes is in the salary cap at around $900,000 but we’ve valued him at $550,000. Jason Taumalolo is valued at $750,000 but is paid more than $1 million. Jordan McLean is in the cap at around $650,000 but we rate him a $375,000 front-rower.
There are similar examples among other rosters. Veteran Raiders skipper and centre Jarrod Croker is on around $800,000 in the cap. At this stage of his career he’s worth more like $400,000.
The Knights pay Dave Klemmer $900,000 but he’s probably now worth only half that.
MOST VALUABLE
We have rated champion Manly Sea Eagles fullback Tom Trbojevic and Penrith’s premiership winning half-back Nathan Cleary as $1.4 million players.
Next is Sydney Roosters fullback and Blues Origin skipper James Tedesco at $1.2 million.
Under our estimates the three best players in the competition provide outstanding value to their clubs because they are getting paid well below that amount.
Newly appointed Newcastle Knights skipper Kalyn Ponga is rated the fourth highest at $1.1 million which is close to what he is getting paid. We rate David Fifita, the game’s most destructive forward, at $1 million.
THE IMBALANCE
On face value it’s hard to see how the Roosters can squeeze in so much talent yet stay under the cap. They made the semi-finals last year despite losing the likes of Boyd Cordner, Jake Friend, Brett Morris, Lindsay Collins and Luke Keary.
It is a fact players will stay or sign with the Roosters for less than they can get elsewhere.
There is the attraction of playing under super coach Trent Robinson, winning premierships and playing representative football from a successful side.
https://supercoach.com.au/
This also applies to Melbourne Storm and Craig Bellamy who has such a great record of turning mediocre footballers into great players.
At the other end of the scale teams like the Wests Tigers have to pay way ‘overs’. They have Luke Brooks on $900,000 yet we suggest he’s worth more like $550,000. James Tamou is on close to $800,000 but is no longer in that big-money league.
THE BLOWOUTS
Last season saw the most number of blowouts in 86 years of rugby league. On one forgettable Super Saturday we had a combined score line of 148-6. Rather than build to achieve sustainable success, impatient clubs and coaches are panic buying looking for immediate results. To try to become a top four or top eight club overnight. It’s not working. This analysis of the rosters proves that.
Cowboys
1 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow $475k 4502 Kyle Feldt $425k 400
3 Valentine Holmes $550k
4 Peta Hiku $275k
5 Murray Taulagi $300k
6 Tom Dearden $310k
7 Chad Townsend $450k
8 Jamayne Taunoa-Brown $250k
9 Reece Robson $375k
10 Jason Taumalolo $750k 800
11 Heilum Luki $270k
12 Jeremiah Nanai $280k
13 Reuben Cotter $260k
14 Jordan McLean $375k
15 Tom Gilbert $250k
16 Coen Hess $400k
17 Scott Drinkwater $325k
TOTAL: $6.32 million
THE REST: Daejern Asi, Kane Bradley, Lachlan Burr, Ben Condon, Mitchell Dunn, Brendan Elliott, Jake Granville, Ben Hampton, Connelly Lemuelu, Laitia Moceidreke, Griffin Neame, Emry Pere. Total: $1.7 million. Squad: 29 players
GRAND TOTAL: $8.02 million
Bulldogs
1 Matt Dufty $350k
2 Josh Addo-Carr $500k
3 Aaron Schoupp $350k
4 Brent Naden $400k
5 Jayden Okunbor $200k
6 Matt Burton $800k 700
7 Jake Averillo $280k
8 Paul Vaughan $450k
9 Jeremy Marshall-King $280k
10 Luke Thompson $550k 500
11 Tevita Pangai Jr $550k 500
12 Jack Hetherington $400k
13 Josh Jackson $400k
14 Bailey Biondi-Odo $200k
15 XAva Seumanufagai $220k
16 Raymond Faitala-Mariner $280k
17 Corey Waddell $220k
TOTAL: $6.43 million
THE REST: Corey Allan, Paul Alamoti, Braidon Burns, Josh Cook, Matt Doorey, Kyle Flanagan, Tui Katoa, Max King, Chris Patolo, Joe Stimson, Jackson Topine, Brandon Wakeham. Total: $1.8 million. Squad: 29 players
TOTAL: $8.23 million
Warriors
1 Reece Walsh $550k 600
2 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak $350k
3 Rocco Berry $270k
4 Jesse Arthars $250k
5 Marcelo Montoya $180k
6 Chanel Harris-Tavita $225k
7 Shaun Johnson $550k
8 Addin Fonua-Blake $725k 700
9 Wayde Egan $350k
10 Matt Lodge $480k
11 Euan Aitken $375k
12 Tohu Harris $720k
13 Jazz Tevaga $320k
14 Kodi Nikorima $300k
15 Josh Curran $320k
16 Eliesa Katoa $425k
17 Ben Murdoch-Masila $300k
TOTAL: $6.69 million
THE REST: Bunty Afoa, Edward Kosi, Jack Murchie, Taniela Otukolo, Aaron Pene, Iliesa Ratuva, Pride Petterson-Robati, Adam Pompey, Ash Taylor, Bayley Sironen, Viliami Vailea. Total: $1.8 million. Squad: 28 players
GRAND TOTAL: $8.49 million
Knights
1 Kalyn Ponga $1.1m 1m
2 Enari Tuala $270k
3 Dane Gagai $550k
4 Bradman Best $400k
5 Dominic Young $180k
6 Jake Clifford $350k
7 Adam Clune $220k
8 Daniel Saifiti $650k
9 Jayden Brailey $450k
10 Dave Klemmer $470k
11 Mitch Barnett $280k
12 Tyson Frizell $600k 500
13 Kurt Mann $320k
14 Chris Randall $220k
15 Jacob Saifiti $450k
16 Lachlan Fitzgibbon $270k
17 Sauaso Sue $170k
TOTAL: $6.95 million
THE REST: Phoenix Crossland, Bailey Hodgson, Hymel Hunt, Jack Johns, Brodie Jones, Jacob Kiraz, Jirah Momoisea, Brayden Musgrove, Simi Sasagi, Pasami Saulo. Total: $1.6 million. Squad: 27 players
GRAND TOTAL: $8.55 million
Tigers
1 Daine Laurie $450k2 David Nofoaluma $475k 450
3 Oliver Gildart $340k
4 Adam Doueihi $550k
5 Ken Maumalo $320k
6 Jackson Hastings $400k
7 Luke Brooks $550k 500
8 Stefano Utoikamanu $650k 600
9 Jacob Liddle $310k
10 James Tamou $270k
11 Luke Garner $325k
12 Luciano Leilua $650k 600
13 Alex Twal $425k
14 Tyrone Peachey $380k
15 Shaun Blore $320k
16 Joe Ofahengaue $280k
17 Zane Musgrove $250k
TOTAL: $6.945 million
THE REST: Thomas Mikaele, William Kei, Asu Kepaoa, Jock Madden, Alex Seyfarth, Jake Simpkin, Tuki Simpkins, Tommy Talau, Starford To’a, Kelma Tuilagi, Junior Tupou. Total: $1.7 million. Squad: 28 players
GRAND TOTAL: $8.645 million
Broncos
1 Tesi Nui $250k
2 Selwyn Cobbo $180k 200
3 Herbie Farnworth $370k
4 Kotoni Staggs $750k 700
5 Jamayne Isaako $280k
6 Albert Kelly $150k
7 Adam Reynolds $800k
8 Payne Haas $875k 850
9 Jake Turpin $300k
10 Tom Flegler $400k
11 Kurt Capewell $525k
12 Jordan Riki $340k
13 Pat Carrigan $425k
14 Billy Walters $225k
15 Ryan James $180k
16 TC Robati $275k
17 Brendan Piakura $380k
TOTAL: $6.705 million
THE REST: Tyson Gamble, Kobe Hetherington, Delise Hoeter, Corey Jensen, Rhys Kennedy, Brenko Lee, Ezra Mam, David Mead, Corey Oates, Cory Paix, Keenan Palasia, Jordan Pereira. Total: $2 million. Squad: 29 players
GRAND TOTAL: $8.705 million
Dragons
1 Tyrell Sloan $350k
2 Mikaele Ravalawa $275k
3 Zac Lomax $650k 600
4 Moses Suli $425k
5 Cody Ramsey $280k
6 Talatau Amone $220k
7 Ben Hunt $650k
8 Blake Lawrie $340k
9 Andrew McCullough $350k
10 Jack de Belin $425k
11 Tariq Sims $525k 500
12 Jaydn Su’A $475k
13 Jack Bird $500K
14 Moses Mbye $320k
15 Josh McGuire $325k
16 Francis Molo $475k 450
17 Tyrell Fuimaono $325k
TOTAL: $6.91 million
THE REST: Daniel Alvaro, George Burgess, Billy Burns, Poasa Faamausili, Mat Feagai, Max Feagai, Jackson Ford, Jack Gosiewski, Josh Kerr, Tautau Moga, Jayden Sullivan, Aaron Woods. Total: $1.9 million. Squad: 29 players
GRAND TOTAL: $8.81 million
