Expansion prospects in the the future NRL vs afl

[Loudstrat]

If you reckon Sydney and Brisbane can support another AFL side, and Tassie, Canberra and Darwin get one you are dreaming.

The way I see it:
NRL - can expand into Central Coast, a third SEQ side, Wellington, Perth and at a pinch Adelaide, Fiji and PNG. Crowds would be a problem in Adelaide, and cashflow and securityy in PNG and Adelaide. Realistically - we can accommodate the first 3 without much promotion at all.

AFL - Nowhere easily - at a pinch Gold Coast and Tassie with a lot of propping up and patience. WS is just rediculous as is Canberra - no one is interested - and Darwin will never have the population needed for the AFL crowd wankfest. All other capitals are at saturation.

A League - Another side in each of Sydney, Melbourne and maybe NZ, plus Canberra and possibly Tassie. But this would dilute their crowds below the point they were seeking when they started -the 15-20k mark was achieved largely because they stuck to the big cities and popular regionals. I cannot see a Western Sydney side jagging crowds much bigger than Marconi did, or the Power.

Anyway, Soccer is a moot point as it is a summer comp. Fact is that AFL are covered totaslly as is, and any new expansion would require them to manufacture a market - not done once since League took over Brisbane in the pre WWI years - and that as with the Raiders.

 

[bobmar28]

If you reckon Sydney and Brisbane can support another AFL side, and Tassie, Canberra and Darwin get one you are dreaming.

The way I see it:
NRL - can expand into Central Coast, a third SEQ side, Wellington, Perth and at a pinch Adelaide, Fiji and PNG. Crowds would be a problem in Adelaide, and cashflow and securityy in PNG and Adelaide. Realistically - we can accommodate the first 3 without much promotion at all.

AFL - Nowhere easily - at a pinch Gold Coast and Tassie with a lot of propping up and patience. WS is just rediculous as is Canberra - no one is interested - and Darwin will never have the population needed for the AFL crowd wankfest. All other capitals are at saturation.

A League - Another side in each of Sydney, Melbourne and maybe NZ, plus Canberra and possibly Tassie. But this would dilute their crowds below the point they were seeking when they started -the 15-20k mark was achieved largely because they stuck to the big cities and popular regionals. I cannot see a Western Sydney side jagging crowds much bigger than Marconi did, or the Power.

Anyway, Soccer is a moot point as it is a summer comp. Fact is that AFL are covered totaslly as is, and any new expansion would require them to manufacture a market - not done once since League took over Brisbane in the pre WWI years - and that as with the Raiders.

One NRL team should be introduced. SEQ, Perth or Wellington.

AFL has no where to go and will fail in western Sydney- GC might survive at great expense.

 

[In-goal]

Who is to say what will happen in 25 years, the AFL have already stated that they have more than $200m to prop up the Gold Coast and West Sydney for the next 20-25 years. For all we know, the NRL may indeed see immense change partly on the behalf of NEWS and potentially with Rugby Union.

The A-league will be around, and I have no doubt the A-league in the future will be dominated by one club from Melbourne, pretty much turning it into a one horse race a.k.a. Olympic Lyon in France for the best part of the last decade.

Sydney is the biggest market in Australia today, but will it remain that way in 25 years? It's not just a matter of placing teams all around the place that will make the NRL stronger, it's stronger clubs that will consolidate the position of the league.

Perception is everything, especially when it comes to the media. Currently League lags along way behind the AFL, however, as above who is to say that the AFL won't suffer a Super League style saga within the next 25 years?

 

[myanonymoususername]

Expansion as i see feasible atm.

Nrl

Sydney x8
Melbourne x1
Brisbane x2
Gold Coast x1
Wollongong x1
Central Coast x1
Townsville X1
Canberra x1
NZ x2
Newcastle x1
Queensland other x1
Papua New Guinea x1
Perth x1

AFL

Perth x3
Melbourne x10
Brisbane x2
Sydney x2
Gold Coast x1
Adelaide x2
Northern Territory x1
Tasmania x1
Canberra x1


So for me league has 22 possible places where if done right a club would have a good chance of survival and out of all codes it has the most unique case of which it could have 3 countries represented( Afl x1 and A-league x2).

10 year prediction- 1 new team from Queensland

AFL imo could at most expand to 23 teams but unlike league these options have a high amount of doubt, Western Sydney, Canberra and Gold Coast could easily be failures just like league trying for Perth/Northern territory or A-league a Brisbane 2.

10 year prediction- 2 new teams from Western Sydney & Gold Coast

I think the NRL has more natural league centres it could expand into, but it is highly questionable whether any of these has the capacity to succeed commercially and competitively.

The best opportunity out of your list would be another Brisbane team, and I'm sure it would face a ferocious defence of that market from the Broncos.

Central Coast will almost certainly get in someday soon-ish. However I hardly call them an expansion - more a splitting of existing market. They almost certainly will have a fanbase, but it is highly doubtful they bring anything to the game in terms of TV market or otherwise commercially.

I doubt a second NZ team would succeed. The Warriors have had their financial and other troubles over their existence, and have not really been very successful on field. Wellington and Christchurch are the only population centres remotely large enough, and they are only about the size of Canberra.

PNG will never happen. Passion for the game does not translate to the money and other resources needed to succeed. Let alone the fact that Port Moresby is a sh*thole and the crime, security and other problems that have not been solved in 30 odd years since independence would need to magically be fixed for a team to be even remotely considered possible.

AFL on the other hand only really has one place it could naturally grow into, Tasmania. Perth I suppose could support a 3rd team ultimately if it keeps growing at the rate of knots. Tassie while they are football fanatics, lacks the corporate base and population to come up with the dollars to support a competitive AFL team. Even to get 5 (?) games a year in Launceston with Hawthorn its the government thats paying millions to get them there.

NT and Canberra are like Tasmania, but nowhere near as fanatical and even smaller. I think a Canberra team would have been possible years ago but the Raiders and Brumbies have saturated the market here. Before the Raiders, I'd have said AFL was stronger here, but the existence, and success of the Raiders in the late 80's, early 90's gave league the ascendancy.

Gold Coast and West Sydney are totally artificial creations of the AFL.

By the way, nice selective use of geography to show NRL in a better light compared to AFL. St George = Wollongong not Sydney but Geelong = Melbourne? If you're going to count St George as Wollongong, you should count Hawthorn as Launceston to be fair.

 

[Loudstrat]

He said succesful off the field!

How are the Roosters NOT successful of the field you dumb putz?

 

[Billythekid]

I don't see the A-league expanding to much in the near future. All 3 of their QLD teams are doing poorly. I think there is a decent chance the GC team will fold and i doubt the NQ team is that safe either.

I also don't see how they could support another Sydney team. It's not like the one that is there now is doing THAT well to warrant another team.

The only spot i could see being reasonable for another team is Melbourne. Maybe Canberra but i don't really know much about that.

AFL well the only places they have left (besides Tassie) they are going to have to force themselves into. I know they said they have 200 million to spend on WS and the GC but that they are banking on a billion dollar tv deal that is never going to come.

With the current clubs the NRL and AFL have i would say AFL have a slight advantage. However now they are going to have to spend countless dollars to try and move into new territoy (Sydney and GC).

The NRL on the other hand have Perth, Wellington, SE QLD and the CC who could all easily support a team. We than have PNG and Adelaide who could also potentially support a team.

Another thing in our favor is the rapid decline of union. Their fans have to go somewhere and i know from experience lots of them like league and hate AFL. I can also see the International game growing as a result to.

 

[In-goal]

AFL well the only places they have left (besides Tassie) they are going to have to force themselves into. I know they said they have 200 million to spend on WS and the GC but that they are banking on a billion dollar tv deal that is never going to come.

We'll see, I think your view about the AFL and thier tv deal is a little hopeful. You may not realise, but the AFL is just getting started when it comes to big TV deals, mark my word, they won't get less than the Billion.

 

[Billythekid]

We'll see, I think your view about the AFL and thier tv deal is a little hopeful. You may not realise, but the AFL is just getting started when it comes to big TV deals, mark my word, they won't get less than the Billion.

I will do that. None of the networks are in a position to offer 1 billion dollars to the AFL.

 

[seanoff]

I will do that. None of the networks are in a position to offer 1 billion dollars to the AFL.

TV rights will probably change fundamentally in the next yr or so. ALL the sports bodies in Australia are attempting to get the way the rights have to sold changed and the govt is fairly amenable to the changes to a point. As long as the NRL/AFL/Cricket remains on FTA in some form

currently the protected sports can only be sold to FTA channels and then they on sell them if they want to Pay. the PAy channels can bid if the FTA channels don't want a sport.

the new way will be open slather.

This will allow the AFL/NRL/A-League/CA etc to split their rights.

I can imagine that both the major footy codes will go with a split rights.

Friday nights / Sat arvo/ sat night/ sunday early / sunday trad / sunday twilight etc will be sold as individual packages to different providers. So you might see ESPN bidding for rights as well as Fox, 9, 10, 7 and even the ABC/SBS.

It might also force changes to the draw, esp in the NRL. If you have ESPN broadcasting Sunday early, they will want to know what games they are getting at the start of the season and a time slot for that game. If you want people to bid for your rights, you have throw them a bone. that bone will probably be in the NRLs case, a set draw at the start of the season. The argument being if want as too bid good money we need to get our share of top rating games.


Fox were/are really pleased with the AFL way of doing things. They get some absolute blockbusters, in 2009 they got Geelong v St Kilda in rnd 14.

 

[Dogs Of War]

TV rights will probably change fundamentally in the next yr or so. ALL the sports bodies in Australia are attempting to get the way the rights have to sold changed and the govt is fairly amenable to the changes to a point. As long as the NRL/AFL/Cricket remains on FTA in some form

currently the protected sports can only be sold to FTA channels and then they on sell them if they want to Pay. the PAy channels can bid if the FTA channels don't want a sport.

the new way will be open slather.

This will allow the AFL/NRL/A-League/CA etc to split their rights.

I can imagine that both the major footy codes will go with a split rights.

Friday nights / Sat arvo/ sat night/ sunday early / sunday trad / sunday twilight etc will be sold as individual packages to different providers. So you might see ESPN bidding for rights as well as Fox, 9, 10, 7 and even the ABC/SBS.

It might also force changes to the draw, esp in the NRL. If you have ESPN broadcasting Sunday early, they will want to know what games they are getting at the start of the season and a time slot for that game. If you want people to bid for your rights, you have throw them a bone. that bone will probably be in the NRLs case, a set draw at the start of the season. The argument being if want as too bid good money we need to get our share of top rating games.


Fox were/are really pleased with the AFL way of doing things. They get some absolute blockbusters, in 2009 they got Geelong v St Kilda in rnd 14.

I think the main change the networks want is to be able to show sports on their secondary channels. Thus all the networks could show NRL/AFL into markets they don't normally rate as their normal time, thus pleasing those bodies.

Personally I think it would be great for the NRL if it was to happen. That said, the NRL would then need to make sure they make the most of it by playing games in those markets, and they must organise it themselves. Not leave it to the clubs to do, as currently happens.

 

[Loudstrat]

Fox were/are really pleased with the AFL way of doing things. They get some absolute blockbusters, in 2009 they got Geelong v St Kilda in rnd 14.

Wow! Really? Geelong v St Kilda? Well f*ck my dog! What a blockbuster! I can imagine the world stopped turning for that one!!!!!

Let me guess - rated less than Souths v Raiders Toyota Cup, right?

FFS.........

 

[Billythekid]

I don't really understand splitting the right for the AFL. There is only the regular season and the finals.

With the NRL there is regular season games, SOO, Internationals, city/country and the finals so it makes much more sense to split the rights.

I can see the benefit of splitting up regular season games e.g. Friday, Saturday and Sunday games as well as selling the finals rights seperately.

However i can't see this really advantaging the AFL to much. Splitting the rights is a far bigger deal for the NRL.

Fox were/are really pleased with the AFL way of doing things. They get some absolute blockbusters, in 2009 they got Geelong v St Kilda in rnd 14.

The NRL rates far better than the AFL on fox. Why should fox care what games they are getting so long as they rate?

You say they got a blockbuster like that but i can guarantee it got out rated easily by many NRL games.

 

[seanoff]

I don't really understand splitting the right for the AFL. There is only the regular season and the finals.

With the NRL there is regular season games, SOO, Internationals, city/country and the finals so it makes much more sense to split the rights.

I can see the benefit of splitting up regular season games e.g. Friday, Saturday and Sunday games as well as selling the finals rights seperately.

However i can't see this really advantaging the AFL to much. Splitting the rights is a far bigger deal for the NRL.



The NRL rates far better than the AFL on fox. Why should fox care what games they are getting so long as they rate?

You say they got a blockbuster like that but i can guarantee it got out rated easily by many NRL games.

splitting the rights benefits all the big 3 sports in Aus. some more than others, but still they would all benefit.

CA - can split tests / one dayers / 20-20s, / State etc they want to split even depending on the opposition. So test against England on FTA and tests against Bangladesh on pay.

The AFL can split out timeslots, and finals, much like the NFL model on which they almost slavishly follow.

splitting the rights to whatever degree is likely to benefit the sport. the quantum of that benefit is up for discussion but they'll all likely benefit if they are allowed to negotiate freely.

 

[seanoff]

Wow! Really? Geelong v St Kilda? Well f*ck my dog! What a blockbuster! I can imagine the world stopped turning for that one!!!!!

Let me guess - rated less than Souths v Raiders Toyota Cup, right?

FFS.........

Well it was. A massive game.

you'd find me a strange f**ker. Quite often I'll have the league on TV and the AFL in my ear on the radio. or i'll attempt to watch both at the same time (2 TVs)

 

[MsStorm]

Not sure whether many of you know, but the afl (or at least the Hawks) are taking 4 games to NZ in the near future. They fared well in Tassie and may do the same in NZ.

And what's the nrl doing...nothing. The occasional game into Perth and Adelaide.!!

 

[Phil McGrawhan]

Well it was. A massive game.

Pity the majority of OZ's population couldn't care less how massive it was.
seagulls chasing chips just doesnt interest most people.

 

[Loudstrat]

Not sure whether many of you know, but the afl (or at least the Hawks) are taking 4 games to NZ in the near future. They fared well in Tassie and may do the same in NZ.

And what's the nrl doing...nothing. The occasional game into Perth and Adelaide.!!

Never heard of the Warriors????????????????????

Whay would Faggotball take 4 games to NZ - maybe to one day get a team there, WHICH WE ALREADY HAVE!!!!!!!!!!!

Next you'll whinge that we aren't taking games to Melbourne.

 

[bobmar28]

We'll see, I think your view about the AFL and thier tv deal is a little hopeful. You may not realise, but the AFL is just getting started when it comes to big TV deals, mark my word, they won't get less than the Billion.

If they can get a billion then League should get a similar amount.

 

[Goddo]

AFL won't get $1b unless they absolutely whore themselves and take away the requirements for broadcasters to go live into NSW and QLD. Won't happen, even with 1 more game a week.

Meanwhile, the NRL is grossly undervalued. how many in the 100 top rating shows on pay tv were NRL this year? 68 wasn't it?

AFL have been talking a lot about spreading the game overseas and getting an international competition going. I can't believe how arogant they are. Look at NFL attempts to spread their game overseas, or soccer/basketball here. If the game isn't popular to start with, AFL will fail miserably overseas.

Good. I hope they waste billions over reaching their market pushing into places they aren't wanted, become bankrupt and the competition colapses.

 

[babyg]

Wow! Really? Geelong v St Kilda? Well f*ck my dog! What a blockbuster! I can imagine the world stopped turning for that one!!!!!

Let me guess - rated less than Souths v Raiders Toyota Cup, right?

FFS.........

I was going to say something similar but you just said it a whole lot better. That was good.