Finals Predictor 2006

[meltiger]

AllTheStats.com

Well it's that time of year again. I have to admit, I was genuinely suprised by my final result. Richmond falling over the line and Sydney dropping down to 8th. Didn't think i'd given each enough wins/losses respectively.

In this scenario, we'd have a elimination final against St Kilda :?

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Adelaide 22 19 3 0 2366 1724 76 137.2
4 Melbourne 22 16 6 0 2251 2033 64 110.7
5 W Bulldogs 22 16 6 0 2342 2127 64 110.1
3 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2348 2055 60 114.2
2 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2171 1997 60 108.7
7 St Kilda 22 14 8 0 2087 1931 56 108.0
8 Richmond 22 13 9 0 2001 2196 52 91.1
6 Sydney 22 11 11 0 2177 1958 44 111.1
11 Geelong 22 11 11 0 2091 2099 44 99.6
9 Port Adel 22 10 12 0 2162 2257 40 95.7
10 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 1947 2128 40 91.4
12 Bris Lions 22 9 13 0 2063 2161 36 95.4
13 Hawthorn 22 7 15 0 1921 2227 28 86.2
14 Kangaroos 22 4 18 0 1953 2242 16 87.1
15 Carlton 22 3 19 0 1898 2254 12 84.2
16 Essendon 22 3 19 0 1991 2380 12 83.6

 

[lockyno1]

Tiger where did you get our 2 extra wins from!

 

[meltiger]

Mate, I put you down for a win against Carlton. Can't remember the other, maybe Hawthorn?

 

[camsmith]

Predicted Pos - Current Pos - Team - Win - Loss - Percentage

1. 1 Adelaide 19 3 152.0%
2. 4 Melbourne 17 5 115.8%
3. 5 W Bulldogs 16 6 114.1%
4. 2 West Coast 16 6 112.9%
5. 3 Collingwood 15 7 119.1%
6. 6 Sydney 13 9 114.9%
7. 8 Richmond 11 11 91.1%
8. 7 St Kilda 10 12 106.5%
----------------------------
9. 11 Geelong 10 12 100.0%
10. 10. 9 Port Adel 10 12 93.2%
11. 11. Fremantle 10 12 88.1%
12. 12 Bris Lions 28 14 94.3%
13. 13 Hawthorn 8 14 83.7%
14. 14 Kangaroos 7 15 85.6%
15. 16 Essendo 3 19 80.1%
16. 15 Carlton 3 19 74.6%


* No draws and deleted pts for/against for clarity.

I wasn't being kind to Richmond either, we seem to have a tough next month but a reasonable run in, nice to see plenty of games at the MCG. I would say the top 8 looks correct with maybe Port/Geelong able to pick up a couple extra wins to kick out either Richmond (especially on %) or the Saints. No doubt Adelaide will finish on top.


Locky, Wins against Carlton and Brisbane.

 

[CyberKev]

Predicted Ladder

1 Adelaide 22 18 4 0 2471 1619 72 152.6
2 West Coast 22 17 5 0 2239 1929 68 116.0
3 Sydney 22 16 6 0 2297 1838 64 124.9
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2408 1995 60 120.7
5 Melbourne 22 15 7 0 2317 1967 60 117.7
6 St Kilda 22 15 7 0 2173 1845 60 117.7
7 W Bulldogs 22 15 7 0 2382 2087 60 114.1
8 Geelong 22 11 11 0 2131 2059 44 103.4
--------------------------------------------
9 Port Adel 22 10 12 0 2144 2275 40 94.2
10 Richmond 22 10 12 0 1905 2292 40 83.1
11 Hawthorn 22 9 13 0 1880 2268 36 82.8
12 Fremantle 22 8 14 0 1897 2178 32 87.0
13 Bris Lions 22 7 15 0 1973 2251 28 87.6
14 Kangaroos 22 5 17 0 1879 2316 20 81.1
15 Carlton 22 4 18 0 1808 2344 16 77.1
16 Essendon 22 1 21 0 1865 2506 4 74.4

A little on the top heavy side.

Surprised by the results, and not about to put good money on this table eventuating.

 

[meltiger]

15 wins and you finish 7th Kev?!


Interestingly, you were much kinder to West Coast than either Cam or I were.

 

[meltiger]

6. 6 Sydney 13 9 114.9%
7. 8 Richmond 11 11 91.1%

Bloody hell. You've got me flying to Sydney! lol

 

[CyberKev]

15 wins and you finish 7th Kev?!

If you get a big gap between the top and bottom half of the ladder in overall side quality its never been impossible. You have to remember that both Richmond & Hawthorn have missed the eight with 12 wins before. Gut feeling tells me that a couple of underperformers (to this point of the season) are about to come home well, and thatthe better sides will be able to capitalise on their strong season's thus far.

Interestingly, you were much kinder to West Coast than either Cam or I were.

Not a lot different in that I gave them 1 more win than Cam (clearly the round 22 fixture was the issue here) and 2 more than you. I think Sydney was a bigger point of contention, between you and I.

West Coast may struggle with Cox out of the picture, but I'm banking on Hawthorn playing them back into form this weekend.

Its possible that I've gone too easy on Hawthorn and have been too tough on Fremantle & Brisbane, but with the lesser sides, its difficult to tell what they'll do in any given week given their horrendous inconsistency.

 

[CyberKev]

The only thing I'm confident about is that Adelaide will win the minor premiership.

They have the best side in the competition, although it remains to be seen if they have the best side in the same way that St George has had the best side in recent times.

History says that the top four is where it is all at, and this year may well be no different, but it could be a good time for a lower 8 side to surprise.

Gut feeling says St Kilda could be that side if they can stay healthy from here and get Kosi & Hammill back on the paddock.

 

[Eddie.]

Adelaide 22 19 3 0 2465 1625 76 151.6
Collingwood 22 17 5 0 2424 1979 68 122.4
W Bulldogs 22 16 6 0 2372 2097 64 113.1
West Coast 22 16 6 0 2195 1973 64 111.2
Melbourne 22 15 7 0 2269 2015 60 112.6
Geelong 22 13 9 0 2157 2033 52 106.0
Sydney 22 12 10 0 2201 1934 48 113.8
St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2069 1949 48 106.1

Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2085 2139 40 97.4
Port Adel 22 10 12 0 2156 2263 40 95.2
Fremantle 22 10 12 0 1953 2122 40 92.0
Richmond 22 10 12 0 1971 2226 40 88.5
Kangaroos 22 5 17 0 1901 2294 20 82.8
Hawthorn 22 5 17 0 1764 2384 20 73.9
Essendon 22 3 19 0 1961 2410 12 81.3
Carlton 22 3 19 0 1826 2326 12 78.5