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Economist urges AFL, Tasmanian government to be realistic about Macquarie Point stadium costs and timeframes
By Adam Holmes
An independent economist who reviewed the proposed Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart has urged the AFL to show "leniency" on Tasmania over project timelines and cost penalties.
Dr Nicholas Gruen was commissioned to look into the stadium's financial modelling. He found the cost had been significantly underestimated, that the cost-benefit had been overestimated, and the project's time frames were impossible to meet.
Independent review finds new Hobart stadium costs to 'exceed $1 billion'
Photo shows A concept image of the proposed Hobart stadium at Macquarie Poi nt.A concept image of the proposed Hobart stadium at Macquarie Poi nt.
A leading independent economist tasked with reviewing Tasmania's proposal to build an AFL stadium on Hobart's waterfront finds the project is "already displaying the hallmarks of mismanagement" and is likely to exceed $1 billion.
The stadium is a condition for the Tasmania Devils men's team entering the AFL from 2028, with the stadium to be ready for the 2029 season. There are financial penalties in the contract if the deadline is not met.
The penalties include $4.5 million if the stadium construction is not 50 per cent completed by October 2027, and another $4.5 million if it is not ready to host games by 2028.
Dr Gruen said it was in the interests of both the Tasmanian government and the AFL to acknowledge the project's constraints, and potentially renegotiate aspects of the deal.
"It can't be done on time, it can't be done on budget," he said.
"We need a reset, and I'd be disappointed and almost surprised if the AFL wouldn't show some degree of leniency, given how angry I think Tasmanians are entitled to be with the way this process has gone."
The requirement for a stadium was first confirmed by former AFL boss Gillon McLachlan in June 2022, and shifted from Regatta Point to Macquarie Point after a visit to the site by the AFL.
Tasmania AFL licence press conference
Tasmania's AFL licence was announced in May 2023. A condition is a new stadium at Macquarie Point. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
It was then inked into the final contract with the Tasmanian government, including a requirement for a transparent roof.
Dr Gruen described the deal as unbalanced.
"The AFL has got itself into this situation by making a deal with the government, as if the Australian community or the Tasmania community in particular, didn't matter," he said.
"They do matter. It's their stadium. So the AFL needs to focus on what its critical interests are."
His report suggested that a more appropriate lead-in time would be five to seven years to ensure appropriate design and community support, during which time the team could play at Bellerive Oval on Hobart's eastern shore and York Park in Launceston.
Dr Gruen said the Perth Stadium was afforded significantly more time in planning, consultation and construction, while Western Australian teams were able to play at existing venues initially.
A wide shot of the futur AFL stadium incorporating greenery and driving space
Nicholas Gruen says the cost of the Macquarie Point stadium has been significantly underestimated. (Supplied: MPDC)
Report shows flaws in deal, Lambie MP says
The report came about as part of an agreement between the government and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) to assist the Liberals in forming minority government.
Two of the three JLN members have since become independents, with Lyons MP Andrew Jenner remaining in the party.
Mr Jenner said the report highlighted flaws in how the deal with the AFL was negotiated.
"If it goes forward in its format that it is now, I think Tasmanians will be paying for it for the next 10 generations," he said.
"I wonder who sat at that table? Were we even there? Or did they just do the agreement on their own, the AFL, and hand it to us?"
The stadium is currently being assessed by the Tasmanian Planning Commission as a project of state significance.
At the end of that process — potentially by mid-to-late this year — it will need to pass both houses of parliament.
Mr Jenner said he would not be voting for the stadium in its current form.
Labor went to the last state election, under former leader Rebecca White, with a promise to renegotiate the deal with the AFL.
New leader Dean Winter then changed the policy to fully supporting a stadium in Hobart, and to hold Premier Jeremy Rockliff to his promise of not spending more than $375 million of state funds on the project.
Labor sport spokesperson Luke Edmunds said on Friday he would write to the Premier to seek a briefing on some of the matters raised by Dr Gruen.
"Tasmanians want this team to be delivered, Tasmanians want to see the Devils running out.
"But when is that actually going to happen, and how much is it going to cost?" he said.
"Labor said we support a stadium, but we also said it wasn't a blank cheque."
Mr Edmunds said it was too soon to say whether the party would vote in favour of the Macquarie Point stadium when it becomes before parliament.
"We'll make decisions on the evidence that's in front of us," he said.
Even if Labor and the government voted together in support of the project, to get through, it would also require the support of at least one independent in the upper house.
Upper house members recently voted down development assessment panels and presumptive sentences for child sex offenders, despite both policies being supported by the government and Labor.
Tasmanian Greens treasury spokesperson Vica Bayley said Dr Gruen's report was unsurprising.
"It indicates what detractors of the stadium have been saying for years now," he said.
"The costs are underestimated, the benefits are overestimated. It's the wrong site and it's the wrong priority for Tasmania."
The government released the report on Friday morning, but did not make any ministers available for questions.
In releasing the report, government minister Eric Abetz wrote that the Macquarie Point project "will shape Tasmania for generations, and unlock decades of investment, jobs and opportunity".
