Gap emerging between 8th and 9th. Is the top 8 decided?

[BunniesMan]

8th is on 18 points. 9th is on 14.

Do we think the top 8 of Melbourne, Canterbury, Brisbane, Souths, Cronulla, NQld, Wests and Manly will be the 8 in Septemeber?

I think the answer is yes. Besides NZ, noone else outside the 8 has what it takes to get into the 8, and NZ has been ordinary away from home.

And as a proud Sydney man, if the 8 does end up like that I'll be stoked. 5 Sydney teams in it shows we always will be rugby league heartland.

 

[Ladmate]

Tigers were 15th 7 weeks ago. It's not over yet, teams can still easily drop out or come into the 8.

 

[Ziggy the God]

Only round 15, too much of the season remaining to rule out half of the comp.

 

[Marshall_magic]

Not yet. This time last year there was a huge gap between 5 and 6, with everyone saying Manly, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Queensland and St George were light years ahead of the rest. The Tigers and Warriors both went on runs, whereas the Dragons and Cowboys both slid down the ladder and even looked like they could miss the finals.

I expect the Warriors to make a charge to finals, I think the Titans have something going as well and could make it, and maybe one other team. I think 6 of the current 8 will hold their spots.

 

[BunniesMan]

Look at the stats for how many teams making the finals with 14 points at this stage of the season. Very very very very few.

 

[BranVan3000]

I can see Warriors doing something. But a few more losses and their heads will drop. They have an average run home, so don't count them out

Titans have an average run home too. They won a couple, but I think they'll lose to the Penrith. And it'll be the start of an overall patchy end of year for them. They'll probably lose to every team above them and beat every team below them and end on around 22 points. If they make the finals they'll need to beat two of the following: Brisbane rd. 20., Souths rd. 22, Melb rd 23 or Manly rd. 26. I don't think it will happen

 

[Fire]

I popped into this thread not realising Bunniesman started it. Once I saw who the OP was, I'm relieved to now know the Dragons will comfortably make the Eight.

 

[BranVan3000]

Not yet. This time last year there was a huge gap between 5 and 6, with everyone saying Manly, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Queensland and St George were light years ahead of the rest. The Tigers and Warriors both went on runs, whereas the Dragons and Cowboys both slid down the ladder and even looked like they could miss the finals.

I expect the Warriors to make a charge to finals, I think the Titans have something going as well and could make it, and maybe one other team. I think 6 of the current 8 will hold their spots.

This time last year, teams 6 - 9 were on 16 points. In 2010 teams 8 - 11 were on 16 points. This year 16 points gets you nothing. 18 points is the lowest in the 8, but it could be 20 points by the end of the round with Tigers and Manly still to play

Much bigger division in quality. And frankly, none of the top 8 looks to be dropping in form

 

[lockyno1]

In my opinion, it is over. 9th is basically 3 games from 8th spot- Cowboys F/A is approximately +75 or whatever it is. That is not including the 2 games they are ahead of 9th spot by. Plus look outside the 8 and tell me which side will have a "run". The best bet is the Titans as they have the easiest draw imaginable, but even so they are long shots.

 

[Marshall_magic]

This time last year, teams 6 - 9 were on 16 points. In 2010 teams 8 - 11 were on 16 points. This year 16 points gets you nothing. 18 points is the lowest in the 8, but it could be 20 points by the end of the round with Tigers and Manly still to play

Much bigger division in quality. And frankly, none of the top 8 looks to be dropping in form

If one of the teams just outside the 8 strings some wins together and anything can happen. Last year the Tigers looked hopeless, had just been comfortably beaten by the Eels and were well out of the 8. They proceeded to win their next 8 games and finish in the top 4. Any of these high flying teams have an injury or two and it could spell trouble. If Inglis goes down will Souths continue to look good? If Carney goes down will Cronulla continue to win? Teams still have 10 some 11 games to play, anything can and probably will happen.

 

[lockyno1]

That is true Marshall, but who outside the 8 can do it, the Warriors MAYBE but who knows with them, the Titans have the best shot but they are coming from a fair way back!

 

[Danny-Boy]

Yeah it's all over. The top 8 all still have an extra 2 points from the bye except Souffs.

Assuming Tigers and Manly win this round, and the cut off is 28 points, that puts;
Melbourne on 26 - need to win 1 from 10
Canterbury, Brisbane, Tigers, Manly, Sharks on 22 - need to win 3 from 10
Souffs on 20 - need to win 4 from 11
Cowboys on 20 - need to win 4 from 10

Slight hopefuls are Warriors and Dragons - need 6 from 10 plus for and against.

It's late and I could be wrong with my maths.

 

[HowHigh]

Plenty of games to be played still. Teams in the 8 could suffer a few major injuries and a few of the teams outside the 8 could go on a good run.

 

[the dude]

30 points guarantees a top 8 spot.

Therefore Storm need to win 3/11. Dogs, Broncos and Sharks need to win 4/10. Souths need to win 5/11. Cowboys need 5/10 and Tigers/Manly need 6/11.

Looking at the Cowboys schedule, they play the Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Tigers, Bulldogs, Manly, Warriors, Dragons, Knights, Sharks. I think they could find it tough.

 

[the dude]

Yeah it's all over. The top 8 all still have an extra 2 points from the bye except Souffs.

Assuming Tigers and Manly win this round, and the cut off is 28 points, that puts;
Melbourne on 26 - need to win 1 from 10
Canterbury, Brisbane, Tigers, Manly, Sharks on 22 - need to win 3 from 10
Souffs on 20 - need to win 4 from 11
Cowboys on 20 - need to win 4 from 10

Slight hopefuls are Warriors and Dragons - need 6 from 10 plus for and against.

It's late and I could be wrong with my maths.

Didn't see this post.. Generally though, 30 points is a guarantee while 28 points will have you either 8th or 9th.

 

[the_flight_of_the_magpie]

everybody knows souffs will finish 9th

 

[BranVan3000]

30 points guarantees a top 8 spot.

Therefore Storm need to win 3/11. Dogs, Broncos and Sharks need to win 4/10. Souths need to win 5/11. Cowboys need 5/10 and Tigers/Manly need 6/11.

Looking at the Cowboys schedule, they play the Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Tigers, Bulldogs, Manly, Warriors, Dragons, Knights, Sharks. I think they could find it tough.

Hoo boy

Cowboys have been brilliant one week, average the next IMO

I guess if they only need 5/10, going WLWLWL for the rest year will work

 

[Timmah]

10/11 games left for most clubs, anything can go wrong in that time, or right. Will only take a bad run of injuries or an injury to a key player and certain clubs can fall over quickly.

I'd only rule out Parramatta at this stage to be perfectly honest. It will take a serious effort from the teams 9th-15th but it could be done. You'd have to say for teams like Newcastle, Canberra and Penrith that the writing is on the wall though, and the Roosters only have a couple of weeks left to make a serious charge.

I get the feeling we'll see the Warriors and Dragons challenge for the bottom spot in the eight with possibly the Cowboys, Sharks or Souths.

 

[T.T]

30 points guarantees a top 8 spot.

Therefore Storm need to win 3/11. Dogs, Broncos and Sharks need to win 4/10. Souths need to win 5/11. Cowboys need 5/10 and Tigers/Manly need 6/11.

Looking at the Cowboys schedule, they play the Raiders, Warriors, Storm, Tigers, Bulldogs, Manly, Warriors, Dragons, Knights, Sharks. I think they could find it tough.

why do manly and tigers need to win 6 when they are only 2 points away from sharks bulldogs and broncos, and with a game in hand

 

[Miller Lite]

A Rabbitohs fan hoping.....