Gap emerging between 8th and 9th. Is the top 8 decided?

[Brutus]

Warriors will make the 8.

 

[Elektrik Shock]

I think the 8 is set, but the order is FAR from settled.

 

[Evil_Mush]

Warriors are too awesome at giving away games in the last 10 to make the finals this year.

So frustrating.

 

[gUt]

I think the 8 is set and the Wok reckons there's every chance the top 4 could gap teams 5-8 as well.

 

[drago brelli]

I heard the boring 'Wok' Warren say the same thing and I think he is right. The Warriors are an outside chance of making the 8. The winner will come from within the top 4.

 

[_Johnsy]

We're done for 2012.

 

[Timmah]

why do manly and tigers need to win 6 when they are only 2 points away from sharks bulldogs and broncos, and with a game in hand

Because it's 6 from 11, not 6 from 10? :lol:

 

[jonno_knights]

Because it's 6 from 11, not 6 from 10? :lol:

According to that Sharks, Bulldogs and Broncos only need to win 4/10.

So Tigers and Manly get 2/1 for a win this round?

 

[Jobdog]

Souffs will start their slide next week. Can see them losing their next four.

 

[Rainbow]

Big game coming up in 2 weeks. Warriors v Cowboys. Warriors at home and with origin players out. If the Warriors put a score on they reduce the gap in differential but also get the important 2 points.

 

[flippikat]

And as a proud Sydney man, if the 8 does end up like that I'll be stoked. 5 Sydney teams in it shows we always will be rugby league heartland.

That's a fair bit of spin there.

You realise that with 9 out of 16 teams in the NRL being Sydney-based..

If all teams were equal (which is the point of a salary cap), on the law of averages you'd have half the top-8 from Sydney anyway?

Sure 5 is one more than half the top 8, but still within +/- one of "half the top eight", a reasonable variation from season-to-season.

 

[Canard]

Big game coming up in 2 weeks. Warriors v Cowboys. Warriors at home and with origin players out. If the Warriors put a score on they reduce the gap in differential but also get the important 2 points.

Yep easy win for the Warriors, f**king disgraceful scheduling by the NRL, surely put the Cowboys up against a team that will also have Origin players missing also.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

8th is on 18 points. 9th is on 14.

Do we think the top 8 of Melbourne, Canterbury, Brisbane, Souths, Cronulla, NQld, Wests and Manly will be the 8 in Septemeber?

I think the answer is yes. Besides NZ, noone else outside the 8 has what it takes to get into the 8, and NZ has been ordinary away from home.

And as a proud Sydney man, if the 8 does end up like that I'll be stoked. 5 Sydney teams in it shows we always will be rugby league heartland.

This was a decent post until you spouted that crap about Sydney. 5 Sydney team making the finals - woohoo. There are, what, 10 Sydney teams? That means only half made it. Queensland have three, and could have all three in and at the worst 2. And may I remind you, Sydney teams inhabit the last four spots. Heartland indeed.

As for the other points, the eight is locked in apart if the Titans make a run. No chance we make it, nor the Drags or Raiders.

 

[Raiderdave]

assured ... Melbourne Brisbane
very likely .... Bulldogs Tigers Manly
quite likely ... Souths Sharks Cowboys
still a chance ... Warriors Dragons
unlikely ... Titans Raiders
most unlikely ...Roosters Panthers Newcastle
snowballs ... Parramatta

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Yep easy win for the Warriors, f**king disgraceful scheduling by the NRL, surely put the Cowboys up against a team that will also have Origin players missing also.

You got a wee bit of a leg-up on Friday night, did you not?

About time we got a bit of a favour thrown our way in any case.

 

[haha]

Souffs will start their slide next week. Can see them losing their next four.

Impossible, we play Newcastle in 3 weeks.
Broncs, Panthers and Roosters will be tough though.

 

[flippikat]

This was a decent post until you spouted that crap about Sydney. 5 Sydney team making the finals - woohoo. There are, what, 10 Sydney teams? That means only half made it. Queensland have three, and could have all three in and at the worst 2. And may I remind you, Sydney teams inhabit the last four spots. Heartland indeed.
.

LOL.. that's going to rark-up some of the Sydneysiders here.. but fair point.

If my city had half the teams in a competition, I'd be pissed if half the playoff spots WEREN'T filled by locals.

Still, one man's "tribal" competition is another man's "unbalanced" competition..

 

[Penrose Warrior]

It's more than half! And they've lost six Origin series in a row! :crazy:

 

[wibble]

10/11 games left for most clubs, anything can go wrong in that time, or right. Will only take a bad run of injuries or an injury to a key player and certain clubs can fall over quickly.

I'd only rule out Parramatta at this stage to be perfectly honest. It will take a serious effort from the teams 9th-15th but it could be done. You'd have to say for teams like Newcastle, Canberra and Penrith that the writing is on the wall though, and the Roosters only have a couple of weeks left to make a serious charge.

I get the feeling we'll see the Warriors and Dragons challenge for the bottom spot in the eight with possibly the Cowboys, Sharks or Souths.

Lots of people are naming Sharks and Souths as possible sliders. It is true, they might, and the Sharks haven't put on many big scores and Souths have had some big wins and some big losses, so their differentials are down (still just one big win away from the others though). Sharks are at $21 to win, equal to Warriors! For a team that has a good shot of making top 4 from here (equal 2nd on points in round 15) this shows the lack of respect that punters are still treating the Sharks with.

But I think some of it might be prejudice from the last few years: these are two different teams from their previous years, and are much tougher than they have been. And yes, both teams have lost some games to "easier" opponents (Penrith, Eels) but so too have Manly, Tigers and Bulldogs. Each of the top 8 have been pretty consistent though. Sharks and Rabbitohs also have two of the easiest runs home of the top 8.

Cowboys are obviously closest to missing on points (with Manly and Tigers having a game in hand this afternoon) and have a tough run home, and have had an up and down season, so might miss out. Tigers and Bulldogs play each other twice and if one team wins both, they are very likely to top 4 and the other is at some risk to drop out.

Any team might slip up, and a team outside the 8 could string some wins together, but it would require a large change in form and historically that only happens once every few seasons, so if I had to put my house on it (please don't bet your house, especially you RLForever), I'd rather bet that the top 8 will stay the same than it will change.

 

[wibble]

This was a decent post until you spouted that crap about Sydney. 5 Sydney team making the finals - woohoo. There are, what, 10 Sydney teams? That means only half made it. Queensland have three, and could have all three in and at the worst 2. And may I remind you, Sydney teams inhabit the last four spots. Heartland indeed.

As for the other points, the eight is locked in apart if the Titans make a run. No chance we make it, nor the Drags or Raiders.

Except that the way some people carry on, Sydney can only "support" a handful ("4" is sometimes mentioned as the magical number, so having 5 currently in the top 8 is relevant) of competitive teams and are ruining the competition with too many teams.

In reality, Sydney teams have always provided about half the finalists, the teams that are at the top and the bottom for Sydney teams rotate around, and losing all those "hopeless" Sydney teams will just drive fans away, decrease TV ratings, make the competition more expensive to run, and not all the talent from Sydney teams will spread to Perth, or PNQ, or far eastern Timbuktoo or wherever.

So yes, this rant and BMs were a little OT, but forgive us Sydney fans for feeling a little defensive and pointing out whenever Sydney teams do "averagely" well, since every 2nd week someone starts a new thread under a different guise of how we can cut some Sydney teams.

In reality, Sydney is no stronger or weaker than ever, this year's current (and likely final) top 8 shows a good representation of Sydney teams, some of whom have been good in recent seasons and some haven't, and Sydney teams continue to show they are relevant and can provide plenty of first grade talent. Business as usual, carry on.